[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Typhoon may disrupt imported copper shipping schedules, with some cargo arrivals at Shanghai ports facing delays

SMM, October 22: Teck Resources announced on October 21 that its Highland Valley Copper (HVC) mine in Canada has received a strike notice from United Steelworkers (USW) Local 7619, with the union able to commence a strike as early as 8:00 local time on October 24 (23:00 Beijing time on October 24). The mine's previous collective agreement expired on September 30, and production is currently continuing. The company has developed contingency plans and stated it will continue working toward a new collective agreement. HVC is located near Logan Lake in British Columbia and produced 127,100 mt of copper in 2025. According to the union, all 944 members who participated in the strike authorization vote cast ballots in favor. The local represents approximately 1,200 employees, and the two sides remain at odds over wages, pensions, and certain contract terms. Spot copper concentrate TCs are currently deeply negative, and smelters are facing significant pressure on raw material procurement. If the strike proceeds and affects production, it will further increase supply disruption risks for copper concentrates. Going forward, attention should be paid to negotiation progress as well as mine production and shipment conditions.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: LME copper opened at $14,300/mt, reached a high of $14,383/mt, a low of $14,278.5/mt, and closed at $14,370.5/mt, down 0.59%. Trading volume was 16,800 lots, with open interest at 262,000 lots, a decrease of 2,551 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting long liquidation. The most-traded SHFE copper 2611 contract opened at 109,096 yuan/mt, reached a high of 109,640 yuan/mt, a low of 109,010 yuan/mt, and closed at 109,570 yuan/mt, down 0.15%. Trading volume was 18,500 lots, with open interest at 145,000 lots, a decrease of 2,372 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting short covering.

First Quantum said on October 21 that the $1.2 billion S3 expansion project at the Kansanshi copper mine in Zambia (commissioned in August 2025) is performing well, with ore milled for the full year 2026 expected to reach approximately 27 million mt, exceeding designed capacity by 8%. The availability and grinding metrics of the new 25 million mt/year sulfide ore processing line have both exceeded targets, and the line has already processed significant volumes of low-grade sulfide ore. Once S3 reaches full production, the mine's copper production will double to approximately 277,000 mt/year. Following the suspension of Cobre Panama, Zambia contributes about 93% of the company's copper production, and the Kansanshi ramp-up is a key support for Zambia's target of 3 million mt of mined copper by 2031 (890,000 mt in 2025). The pace of production release in the African copper belt is becoming an important variable in the global copper concentrates balance for 2027.