[SMM Nickel Midday Review] Nickel spot premiums strengthened significantly on November 10, while China's October CPI rose 0.2% YoY, shifting from a decline to an increase.

SMM Nickel November 10 News:

Macro and Market News:

(1) National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): In October, CPI turned to a 0.2% increase YoY, and rose 0.2% MoM; PPI fell 2.1% YoY. Among them, food and energy prices remained low, but their declines narrowed. Food prices fell 2.9%, with the decline narrowing by 1.5 percentage points from September, dragging down CPI by about 0.54 percentage points YoY. Energy prices fell 2.4%, with gasoline prices down 5.5%, dragging down CPI by about 0.18 percentage points YoY.

(2) The PBOC released data showing China's foreign exchange reserves were $3.343 billion at the end of October, compared to $3.339 billion at the end of September. China's gold reserves were 74.09 million ounces (about 2,304.457 mt) at the end of October, an increase of 30,000 ounces (about 0.93 mt) MoM, marking the 12th consecutive month of gold accumulation.

Spot Market:

On November 10, the SMM #1 refined nickel price was 119,200-123,200 yuan/mt, with an average price of 121,200 yuan/mt, up 300 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 3,500-3,700 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 3,600 yuan/mt, up 600 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The spot premium/discount quotation range for mainstream domestic brands of electrodeposited nickel was -100-400 yuan/mt. Spot premiums rose significantly on Monday.

Futures Market:

The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2512) continued to fluctuate at lows in the morning session, closing at 119,580 yuan/mt by the midday break, down 0.08%.

Signs of easing emerged in China-US trade relations, as the US removed the additional 10% tariffs on some Chinese goods, suspended 24% of retaliatory tariffs for one year, and paused the Section 301 investigation into China's maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding industries. In China, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.2% YoY in October, and the Producer Price Index (PPI) turned from a decline to an increase MoM, marking its first rise this year, indicating a recovery on both domestic and external macro fronts. In the short term, nickel prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend within the current range, with reference prices at 119,000-123,000 yuan/mt.