[SMM Nickel Midday Review] Nickel prices rebounded slightly on July 14, and the US will block Iranian ports from 4 a.m. on July 15.

SMM Nickel July 14 News:

Macro and Market News:

(1) The US will blockade Iranian ports starting at 4:00 a.m. on the 15th; Trump: Will impose a 20% fee on cargo shipments; May take over management of the Strait of Hormuz in the future.

(2) US Fed Governor Waller: If core inflation posts another hot reading this week, the FOMC will have to consider tightening monetary policy in the near term.

Spot Market:

On July 14, SMM #1 refined nickel price increased by 1,200 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In terms of spot premiums, the average for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 2,100 yuan/mt, down 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while domestically mainstream electrodeposited nickel brands ranged between -300-500 yuan/mt.

Futures Market:

The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2609) surged during the night session before consolidating in the morning session, closing the morning session at 129,250 yuan/mt, up 0.43%.

Over the weekend, the US-Iran conflict took another unexpected turn, with synchronized rises in the US dollar and crude oil weighing on metals. However, Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources officially announced on July 10 that it would not raise the overall national nickel mining production quota, with any quota increases to be very limited and only granted through a strict, special approval channel for local smelters facing severe raw material supply shortages. In the short term, nickel prices may see a rebound, with the most-traded SHFE nickel contract expected to trade within a range of 127,000-133,000 yuan/mt.