Africa's Two Major Copper Exporting Countries Reopen Trade Routes; LME Copper Fluctuated and Closed Lower Overnight [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes]

Friday, November 7, 2025

Futures: LME copper opened at $10,742/mt overnight. It fluctuated upward at the beginning of the session, hitting a high of $10,778/mt, then the center of copper prices gradually moved downward, touching a low of $10,666/mt, before fluctuating upward again and finally closing at $10,687/mt, down 0.43%. Trading volume reached 16,000 lots, and open interest stood at 326,000 lots. The most-traded SHFE copper contract 2512 opened at 86,320 yuan/mt overnight. It rose at the beginning of the session, reaching a high of 86,450 yuan/mt, after which the center of copper prices gradually moved downward, touching a low of 85,600 yuan/mt, before fluctuating upward again and finally closing at 85,690 yuan/mt, down 0.33%. Trading volume reached 44,000 lots, and open interest stood at 210,000 lots.

[SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes] News:

(1) On November 5, two major African copper-exporting countries reopened a key trade route. The freight border between Tanzania and Zambia has been reopened after disruptions following post-election unrest. Currently, border inspection authorities clear an average of about 250 trucks per day in both directions. The port of Dar es Salaam has resumed its role as a hub for copper and cobalt transportation to and from Zambia, while also handling fuel imports for the region.

Spot:

(1) Shanghai: On November 6, SMM #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month 2511 contract were at a discount of 40 yuan/mt to a premium of 100 yuan/mt, with the average premium reported at 30 yuan/mt, up 5 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. SMM #1 copper cathode prices ranged from 85,660 yuan/mt to 86,330 yuan/mt. In early trading, SHFE copper opened low and moved higher, rising from the 85,750 yuan/mt level to 86,300 yuan/mt. The price spread for the month transition fluctuated between a contango of 40 yuan/mt and a backwardation of 10 yuan/mt. The import loss for the front-month SHFE copper contract was around 600 yuan/mt. Looking ahead to today, some pricing orders were fulfilled after copper prices rose, but the brief recovery in market transactions could not conceal weak demand. Premiums and discounts are expected to remain flat tomorrow.

(2) Guangdong: On November 6, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract were at a discount of 40 yuan/mt to a premium of 10 yuan/mt, with the average premium at 15 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 110 yuan/mt to 70 yuan/mt, with the average discount at 90 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 85,730 yuan/mt, up 465 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of SX-EW copper was 85,655 yuan/mt, up 465 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Overall, downstream manufacturers showed strong wait-and-see sentiment after the rebound in copper prices, and overall trading was weaker than the previous day.

(3) Imported copper: On November 6, warrant prices were $30-40/mt, QP November, with the average price unchanged from the previous trading day. B/L prices were $38-50/mt, QP November, with the average price unchanged from the previous trading day. EQ copper (CIF B/L) was quoted at -$16/mt to $4/mt, QP November, with the average price unchanged from the previous trading day. Quotations refer to cargoes arriving in mid-to-late November.

(4) Secondary Copper: At 11:30 on November 6, the futures closing price was 86,300 yuan/mt, up 670 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average spot premium/discount was 30 yuan/mt, up 5 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Today, the price of recycled copper raw materials rose 600 yuan/mt MoM. The price of bare bright copper in Guangdong was 77,800-78,000 yuan/mt, up 600 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 3,458 yuan/mt, up 37 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 1,645 yuan/mt. According to the SMM survey, although copper prices stopped falling and rebounded, downstream players actively restocked. Secondary copper rod enterprises reported that end-user ordering sentiment today continued the performance from the previous day.

(5) Inventory: On November 5, LME copper cathode inventory increased by 500 mt to 134,475 mt; on November 6, SHFE warrant inventory increased by 1,332 mt to 43,893 mt.

Price: On the macro front, multiple data indicated a weak US job market in October, including a decline in non-farm payrolls, a surge in layoffs, and the unemployment rate hitting a four-year high, intensifying concerns about the economic outlook. Meanwhile, US Fed officials showed divergence in monetary policy, with most maintaining a hawkish stance due to inflation risks and opposing near-term interest rate cuts, putting pressure on copper prices. On the fundamentals side, supply side, imported cargoes arrived successively while domestic supply was limited. Demand side, downstream players only conducted necessary restocking due to high copper prices. Inventory side, as of Thursday, November 6, SMM copper inventories in mainstream areas across China increased by 3,200 mt from Monday to 203,300 mt. Overall, copper prices are expected to remain supported today.

[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this to replace independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]