Polysilicon Prices Temporarily Stabilize, PV Module Production Cuts Expected in November [SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Conference Summary]

SMM November 3 News:

Silicon Metal

Price

Silicon metal prices were basically stable last Friday, with SMM's oxygen-blown #553 silicon in east China at 9,400-9,500 yuan/mt and #441 silicon at 9,600-9,700 yuan/mt. In the futures market, the most-traded SI2601 contract closed at 9,100 yuan/mt on Friday, down 55 yuan/mt from the previous day. Mainstream transaction prices of silicon metal were temporarily stable.

Production

As the dry season has arrived, silicon enterprises in Sichuan and Yunnan have recently implemented production cuts in batches, leading to a decline in operating rates and a decrease in national silicon metal production.

Inventory

Social inventory: SMM statistics show that the total social inventory of silicon metal in major regions was 559,000 mt as of October 23, down 3,000 mt WoW. This included 123,000 mt in general social warehouses, up 3,000 mt WoW, and 436,000 mt in delivery social warehouses (including unregistered warrants and spot cargo portions), down 6,000 mt WoW. Recently, some cargo in Xinjiang warehouses continued to be transferred to Tianjin, resulting in significant regional inventory changes. (Excluding Inner Mongolia, Gansu, etc.)

Polysilicon

Price

Over the weekend, N-type recharging polysilicon was quoted at 49.5-55 yuan/kg, the N-type polysilicon price index was 52.02 yuan/kg, and granular polysilicon was quoted at 50-51 yuan/kg. Polysilicon prices were temporarily stable over the weekend. A polysilicon meeting was held in Shanghai on Friday, and the market is focused on the specific implementation details following the meeting. Prices are temporarily stable.

Production

Polysilicon production in October is estimated at about 134,000 mt, an increase MoM from September, exceeding previous market expectations. Some top-tier enterprises are expected to cut production in November, leading to an anticipated decline in output.

Inventory

Recently, polysilicon inventory has been on a rising trend, as the purchasing pace of crystal pulling plants has slowed. Some manufacturers face relatively high inventory pressure. Subsequently, polysilicon may enter a production cut cycle, potentially easing inventory pressure slightly.

Module

Price

Last week, the mainstream transaction price center for domestic module enterprises was basically stable. In terms of transactions, purchase volumes from downstream end-users slightly weakened, mainly due to localized price increases. On the demand side, some domestic terminal projects have commenced, and the subsequent trend for new installations shows a clear upward trajectory, with some small projects appropriately entering the market for low-price purchases. Currently, distributed Topcon 183, 210R, and 210N high-efficiency modules are quoted at 0.668 yuan/W, 0.674 yuan/W, and 0.684 yuan/W, respectively, while centralized Topcon 182/183 and 210N high-efficiency modules are quoted at 0.661 yuan/W and 0.681 yuan/W, respectively.

Production

Module scheduled production in November maintains a downward trend, but there is some divergence among enterprises. Production at top-tier enterprises still shows a slight increase, while overall scheduled production at other enterprises has declined, resulting in a comprehensive production decrease of 1-2 GW.

Inventory

Weekly inventory: Dealers and some end-user projects increased purchases, leading to a decline in module inventory levels.

High-Purity Quartz Sand

Price

Current domestic inner-layer sand prices were 58,000-63,000 yuan/mt, mid-layer sand prices were 25,000-30,000 yuan/mt, and outer-layer sand prices were 17,000-21,000 yuan/mt. Last week, domestic high-purity quartz sand trading volume was low. Crucible enterprises are still negotiating long-term contract prices with imported sand suppliers. Trading activity is expected to remain weak this week, but may recover after long-term contract signing is completed.

Production

Overall quartz sand production increased rapidly in October, but supply is expected to shrink as some enterprises deplete raw materials and demand weakens.

Inventory

Quartz sand inventory levels continued to rise, and inventory is expected to maintain an upward trend in November.

PV Glass

Price

3.2mm single-layer coating: Quoted prices for 3.2mm single-layer coated PV glass were 19.5-21 yuan/m², remaining stable.

3.2mm double-layer coating: Quoted prices for 3.2mm double-layer coated PV glass were 20.5-22 yuan/m², remaining stable.

2.0mm single-layer coating: Quoted prices for 2.0mm single-layer coated PV glass were 12.5-13.5 yuan/m². Prices held steady in the latter part of last week. Domestic leading glass enterprises held meetings intending to hold prices firm. This week enters the negotiation and order signing period, with final prices still subject to bargaining.

2.0mm double-layer coating: Quoted prices for 2.0mm double-layer coated PV glass were 13.5-14.5 yuan/m², with the trading price center shifting slightly downward.

Production

Domestic glass production is expected to begin declining in November, but the decrease will be limited due to anticipated new capacity additions.

Inventory

Domestic glass days of inventories showed a slight increase last week. With domestic demand continuing to decline in November, inventory is expected to remain high.