SHFE Tin Edges Up 0.52% at Midday as LME Tin Prices Stabilize; Supply-Demand Tight Balance Supports Fluctuations at Highs [SMM Tin Midday Review]

SHFE Tin Edged Up 0.52% at Midday, LME Tin Stabilized, Tight Supply-Demand Balance Supports Highs Fluctuation

At midday on October 16, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin contract price showed a pattern of fluctuating at highs. By the midday close, the most-traded SHFE tin contract settled at 281,490 yuan/mt, up a slight 0.52%. Although the SHFE tin 2511 contract settled at 280,070 yuan/mt in the previous night session, down 0.12%, the intraday price demonstrated resilience, supported by the fundamental tight supply-demand balance. Overseas, LME tin prices showed signs of stabilization; overnight, LME tin settled up $204 at $35,393/mt, a gain of 0.54%, indicating the overseas market was gradually finding support after consecutive adjustments.

Macro environment, the US dollar index extended its decline from the previous two trading days, falling another 0.15% to 98.19, providing some support to the metal markets. The market widely expects the US Fed to almost certainly cut interest rates by 25 basis points at this month's meeting and again in December; such easing expectations help boost risk appetite in metal markets. Domestically, the central bank conducted 236 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repo operations yesterday, but with 612 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing, it resulted in a net withdrawal of 376 billion yuan for the day, keeping market liquidity reasonably ample.

Market sentiment, spot market trading was sluggish. Downstream enterprises had mostly completed stockpiling before the holiday, and after the holiday, due to prices hovering at high levels, end-users' willingness to place orders decreased, leading to overall low demand for tin ingot. Traders reported low market activity, with only a small number of downstream enterprises making just-in-time procurement based on orders.

Overall, SHFE tin prices maintained high fluctuations, supported by the recovering macro atmosphere and the tight supply-demand balance. The most-traded SHFE tin contract is expected to continue fluctuating within the range of 279,000-283,000 yuan/mt in the afternoon session.