SHFE and LME Tin Prices Synchronously Rebound, Sustained Supply-Side Constraints Provide Strong Support [SMM Tin Futures Review]

On October 16, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2511) price fluctuated at highs. During the night session, the contract opened slightly lower and closed at 280,070 yuan/mt, down 0.12% from the previous day. In daytime trading, the price hovered around the 280,000 yuan/mt mark; market sentiment recovered slightly in the afternoon, and it finally closed at 281,350 yuan/mt, posting a slight gain of 0.34%. In the spot market, spot trades were generally sluggish. Most downstream enterprises had completed stockpiling before the holiday, and high prices suppressed purchase willingness, with only a few companies making rigid replenishments based on orders. Traders generally reported limited transactions, and wait-and-see sentiment prevailed in the market.

In overseas markets, LME tin prices showed signs of stabilization. The three-month LME tin contract was quoted at $35,500/mt, up $120, a gain of 0.34%.

From a macro perspective, bullish and bearish factors were intertwined. The US dollar index fell for the third consecutive trading day, dropping another 0.16% to 98.63 today, which theoretically supported dollar-denominated metal prices. The market widely expects the US Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at this month's meeting and again in December. However, the shadow of escalating US-China trade friction loomed over the market. The US proposal to impose hefty tariffs comprehensively on Chinese goods raised concerns about a deteriorating global trade environment, leading to increased risk-off sentiment and some capital outflow from the commodity market. Additionally, the US federal government shutdown and delays in releasing key economic data further heightened market uncertainty.

Overall, on October 16, SHFE tin futures prices consolidated with high volatility. The tight supply-demand balance, particularly persistent supply constraints and low inventory, provided strong fundamental support for tin prices.