In September, automobile production and sales exceeded 3 million units for the first time in the same period historically. Will the annual automotive market completion rate be better than expected? [SMM Special Report]

In mid-October 2025, the Passenger Car Association and CAAM successively released data on the automotive industry and passenger car market for September 2025. In September, auto production and sales reached 3.276 million and 3.226 million units, respectively, up 16.4% and 12.9% MoM, and up 17.1% and 14.9% YoY. Auto production and sales exceeded 3 million units for the first time in the same period historically... SMM compiled relevant data on the auto market and power battery market in September for readers' reference.

Automotive Sector

CAAM: September Auto Production and Sales Exceeded 3 Million Units for the First Time in the Same Period Historically, January-September Auto Production and Sales Both Surpassed 24 Million Units

In September, auto production and sales reached 3.276 million and 3.226 million units, respectively,up 16.4% and 12.9% MoM,and up 17.1% and 14.9% YoY. Auto production and sales exceeded 3 million units for the first time in the same period historically, and the monthly YoY growth rate has remained above 10% for five consecutive months.

From January to September, auto production and sales reached 24.333 million and 24.363 million units, respectively,up 13.3% and 12.9% YoY, with the growth rates of production and sales expanding by 0.6 and 0.3 percentage points, respectively, compared to January-August.

CAAM: September NEV Production and Sales Hit a Record High, January-September Production and Sales Exceeded 10 Million Units

In September, NEV production and sales reached 1.617 million and 1.604 million units, respectively,up 23.7% and 24.6% YoY, with NEV sales accounting for 49.7% of total new auto sales.

From January to September, NEV production and sales reached 11.243 million and 11.228 million units, respectively,up 35.2% and 34.9% YoY, with NEV sales accounting for 46.1% of total new auto sales.

CAAM: January-September NEV Exports Reached 1.758 Million Units, Up 89.4% YoY

In September, NEV exports reached 222,000 units, down 0.9% MoM,and doubled YoY. Among them, passenger NEV exports reached 217,000 units, down 1.4% MoM and doubled YoY; new energy commercial vehicle exports reached 5,000 units, up 23.8% MoM and up 35.2% YoY.

From January to September, NEV exports reached 1.758 million units,up 89.4% YoY. Among them, passenger NEV exports reached 1.694 million units, up 87.7% YoY; new energy commercial vehicle exports reached 64,000 units, up 150% YoY.

CAAM Deputy Secretary General Chen Shihua stated on October 14 that, based on the current development trend of China's automotive industry, vehicle exports for the full year 2025 are expected to exceed 6.5 million units, cumulative NEV sales will surpass 16 million units, and the overall vehicle market performance will be better than anticipated.

The China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) also released data on the passenger vehicle market for September 2025. According to CPCA data, retail sales in the national passenger vehicle market reached 2.241 million units in September, up 6.3% YoY and 11.0% MoM. Cumulative retail sales from the beginning of the year reached 17.005 million units, an increase of 9.2% YoY. The cumulative growth rate of domestic vehicle retail sales this year has continued to climb from 1.2% in January-February to 11% in the first half of the year (January-June), while the growth rate hovered around 6% from July to September, showing a deceleration characteristic under a high base, consistent with the "low start, high middle, flat end" trend predicted at the beginning of the year. Retail sales in September hit a new record high, exceeding the previous historical high of 2.19 million units set in September 2017 by 50,000 units, demonstrating strong growth characteristics ahead of the year-end policy expiration.

Regarding NEVs, retail sales in the new energy passenger vehicle market reached 1.296 million units in September, up 15.5% YoY and 16.2% MoM. Cumulative retail sales from January to September reached 8.866 million units, an increase of 24.4%.

On exports, the CPCA stated that, alongside the evident scale advantages and market expansion demands of Chinese NEVs, Chinese-made new energy brand products are increasingly going global, with continuously rising recognition overseas. Exports of new energy passenger vehicles reached 211,000 units in September, surging 96.5% YoY and increasing 3.9% MoM.These accounted for 40.1% of passenger vehicle exports, up 15.4 percentage points compared to the same period last year. Among these, pure electric vehicles accounted for 66% of NEV exports (83% in the same period last year), with A00 and A0 segment pure electric vehicles, as the core focus, accounting for 46% of pure electric vehicle exports (38% in the same period last year).

Commenting on the September passenger vehicle market, the CPCA noted that retail sales hit a new record high, exceeding the September 2017 historical high of 2.19 million units by 50,000 units, showing strong growth characteristics ahead of the year-end policy expiration. The anti-involution wave is pushing the vehicle market towards a trend of "fewer price cuts and milder promotions," leading to increasingly stable market operations. According to statistics based on automakers' official price cuts or new vehicle prices substantially breaking through the lowest guidance prices of the past two years: 23 car models saw price reductions in September 2025 (compared to 36 models in the same period last year and 11 models in the same period of 2023), indicating the current market remains relatively stable. The promotion intensity for NEVs in September 2025 was maintained at a medium-high level of 10.2%, up 2.6 percentage points year-on-year and slightly increasing 0.7 percentage points month-on-month. In September 2025, the discount intensity on traditional internal combustion engine vehicles reached 23.9%, up 1 percentage point MoM and up 1.9 percentage points YoY.

The China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) summarized the September 2025 passenger-vehicle market as follows: 1. Retail sales, exports, wholesale and production by passenger-vehicle producers all set historical highs for September, with new-energy exports reaching an all-time monthly record. 2. Domestic retail sales of passenger vehicles rose 9.5% YoY in January-August 2025; the cumulative growth rate eased to 9.2% through September, as July-September successively weighed on the annual figure, foreshadowing a “low-early, high-mid, flat-late” pattern for the year. 3. Headline price cuts were mild, yet hidden incentives—model-year feature upgrades, owner-benefit adjustments, the “program of large-scale equipment upgrades and consumer goods trade-ins” plus additional factory subsidies—proliferated; new-energy sales promotions edged up to 10.2% MoM in September. 4. Battery-electric wholesale volume grew 32.4% YoY, plug-in hybrid 8.4% YoY and range-extended 8.7% YoY; among new players, the share of battery-electric versus range-extended shifted from 50:50 last year to 70:30. 5. State-owned groups’ self-owned brands surged: SAIC, Dongfeng, Changan, Chery and BAIC together rose 25% YoY in September, with “second-generation” brands Deepal, VOYAH and Arcfox posting strong gains. 6. New-energy penetration in domestic retail sales reached 57.8% in September, reflecting steady growth underpinned by retirement-and-renewal incentives, replacement subsidies and the continued new-energy purchase-tax exemption. 7. In January-September 2025, self-owned brands exported 2.08 million internal-combustion passenger vehicles, down 9% YoY, and 1.32 million new-energy vehicles, up 125% YoY, with new energy accounting for 38.9% of self-owned exports.

CAAM noted that in September, localities and ministries accelerated the rollout of more proactive macro policies, strengthened the domestic circulation, maintained policy continuity and stability while enhancing flexibility and foresight, and sustained a steady economic advance. The improving macro backdrop provided crucial support for the auto market. The trade-in policy continued to deliver results, suspended regions resumed implementation, industry-wide efforts against involution made progress, regional auto shows were vibrant, and a flurry of new products hit the market. Monthly production and sales YoY growth stayed above 10% for five consecutive months, new momentum was released faster, and foreign trade showed resilience.

The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and seven other ministries jointly issued the “Automotive Industry Stable Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)”, outlining 15 measures across four dimensions—expanding domestic consumption, continuously improving supply quality, optimizing the industrial environment and raising the level of international openness and cooperation—charting a course for stable growth and high-quality development and providing policy assurance for the market’s sustained improvement.

Power Battery Sector

From January to September 2025, cumulative sales of power and other batteries in China reached 1,067.2 GWh, up 55.8% YoY.

In September, sales of power and other batteries in China amounted to 146.5 GWh,up 9.0% MoM and 42.2% YoY. Among them, power battery sales reached 110.5 GWh, accounting for 75.5% of total sales, up 11.8% MoM and 44.4% YoY; sales of other batteries were 36.0 GWh, accounting for 24.5% of total sales, up 1.0% MoM and 36.1% YoY.

From January to September, cumulative sales of power and other batteries in China totaled 1,067.2 GWh,up 55.8% YoY. Among them, cumulative power battery sales reached 786.0 GWh, accounting for 73.7% of total sales, up 48.9% YoY; cumulative sales of other batteries were 281.1 GWh, accounting for 26.3% of total sales, up 78.9% YoY.

From January to September 2025, power battery installations in China reached 493.9 GWh, up 42.5% YoY.

In September, power battery installations in China amounted to 76.0 GWh,up 21.6% MoM and 39.5% YoY. Among them, ternary battery installations were 13.8 GWh, accounting for 18.2% of total installations, up 26.5% MoM and 5.2% YoY; LFP battery installations were 62.2 GWh, accounting for 81.8% of total installations, up 20.5% MoM and 50.4% YoY.

From January to September, cumulative power battery installations in China reached 493.9 GWh,up 42.5% YoY. Among them, cumulative ternary battery installations were 91.2 GWh, accounting for 18.5% of total installations, down 7.8% YoY; cumulative LFP battery installations were 402.6 GWh, accounting for 81.5% of total installations, up 62.7% YoY.