SHFE Tin Fluctuates Under Pressure After High-Level Correction; Awaiting Guidance Amid Weak Supply-Demand Balance [SMM Tin Midday Review]

On the midday of October 15, 2025, the nonferrous metals sector in the domestic futures market was generally under pressure, with the most-traded SHFE tin contract performing weakly during the session. The contract closed at 280,660 yuan/mt at the midday break, down 1,480 yuan or 0.52% from the previous trading day. Meanwhile, LME tin futures retreated after a rapid rise, settling temporarily at $35,465/mt, up $175.

This morning, SHFE tin prices fluctuated near the 280,000-yuan mark, reflecting intense battles between bulls and bears at the current price level.

From a macro perspective, market sentiment has turned cautious recently. Although the US dollar index dropped back slightly, it remained at a relatively high level overall, exerting some pressure on dollar-denominated nonferrous metals. Recent remarks from US Fed officials showed diverging views, creating uncertainty in the market's judgment on the interest rate cut path, while political factors such as the risk of a US government shutdown also added variables to the market.

On the spot market side, after the significant post-holiday price surge in SHFE tin, downstream enterprises generally adopted a wait-and-see attitude, with purchasing activities mainly driven by rigid demand, resulting in overall sluggish trading. The game between "strong expectations" and "weak reality" has led tin prices into a consolidation phase.

In summary, the midday pullback in SHFE tin resulted from cautious macro sentiment coupled with weak fundamentals on both supply and demand sides. In the short term, supply disruptions in Indonesia and Myanmar provided a floor for prices, but weak actual demand also capped upside room. For the afternoon session and near-term trends, investors should focus on LME tin inventory changes, fluctuations in the US dollar index, and signals of improvement in domestic downstream consumption. The most-traded SHFE tin contract is expected to fluctuate within the range of 275,000-287,000 yuan/mt in the short term, and a clear unilateral trend is unlikely to emerge before definite breakthrough signals appear from macro or fundamental factors.