Polysilicon Market Largely Stable with High-Purity Quartz Sand Prices Weakening [SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Conference Summary]

SMM October 15:

Silicon coal

price: Silicon coal prices in some regions trended lower this week. In Xinjiang, the price of bonded silicon coal followed the decline in raw coal prices, currently at 1,300-1,650 yuan/mt. Prices in Shaanxi also experienced minor fluctuations and decreases, dropping by about 25 yuan/mt, with the current average price at 750 yuan/mt. Against a backdrop of relatively weak demand, cost changes directly influenced the extent of price adjustments.

Supply: Coal washing plants continued to adopt a sales-based production strategy for scheduling. With a slight increase in operating rates at downstream silicon plants in some regions, supply increased slightly.

Demand: Demand varied by region. As south-west China is expected to enter the dry season, demand gradually weakened. However, with higher operating rates at downstream silicon plants in north China, demand for silicon coal showed a slight increase.

Silicon metal

price: Spot silicon metal prices were slightly weaker. Yesterday, SMM's price for oxygen-blown #553 silicon in east China was 9,300-9,500 yuan/mt, down 50 yuan/mt from the previous day. The futures market experienced strong volatility influenced by market rumors, with the intraday low at 8,455 yuan/mt, the high at 8,770 yuan/mt, and it closed at 8,520 yuan/mt, down 285 yuan/mt from the previous day and down 165 yuan/mt from Monday this week. Market transactions were relatively active yesterday.

Production:

Domestic silicon metal production in September 2025 was 420,800 mt, an increase of 35,100 mt (9.1%) MoM, but a decrease of 33,300 mt (7.3%) YoY. The total production schedule for October maintains an increase, with output expected to rise MoM.

Inventory:

Social inventory: According to SMM statistics on October 9, the total social inventory of silicon metal in major regions was 545,000 mt, an increase of 2,000 mt from before the National Day holiday. This included 120,000 mt in general social warehouses, flat WoW from pre-holiday, and 425,000 mt in delivery social warehouses (including unregistered warrants and spot portions), an increase of 2,000 mt from pre-holiday. (Excluding Inner Mongolia, Gansu, etc.)

Silicone

price

DMC: The current offer is 11,100-11,500 yuan/mt, up 250 yuan/mt WoW. Supported by cost pressures and relatively reduced supply, monomer plants refused to budge on prices, leading to a slight, tentative increase in transaction prices.

D4: The current offer is 11,200-12,000 yuan/mt, up 150 yuan/mt WoW.

107 silicone rubber: The current offer is 11,400-11,600 yuan/mt, up 350 yuan/mt WoW.

Raw silicone rubber: The current offer is 11,500-12,200 yuan/mt, unchanged WoW.

Silicone Oil: Current quotes are 12,500-13,400 yuan/mt, up by 100 yuan/mt WoW.

Production:

Under the influence of maintenance and load reduction plans at some monomer plants, the overall operating rate is expected to decline, with supply dropping slightly.

Inventory:

Currently, some monomer producers are mainly focused on order fulfillment, and enterprise inventory levels are basically stable compared to last week. However, as some orders near completion, a slight inventory buildup is beginning to occur at certain monomer plants.

Polysilicon

Price:

N-type recharging polysilicon is quoted at 50.5-55 yuan/kg, granular polysilicon at 50-51 yuan/kg, and the polysilicon price index stands at 52.65 yuan/kg. The market is largely stable with minor fluctuations; no substantial increase has occurred yet, mainly due to some orders and expected price volatility. With an industry conference approaching, the market is closely watching for the outcomes.

Production:

Domestic polysilicon production schedule for October is estimated at around 133,000 mt, which still exceeds downstream demand. There are expectations for production cuts in some regions in November, but the specific implementation may be influenced by the conference.

Inventory:

This week, polysilicon inventories rose slightly, and the pace of signing orders slowed down. Currently, wafer enterprises are showing a wait-and-see sentiment towards signing orders.

Wafer

Price:

The market price for N-type 18X wafers is 1.35 yuan/piece, and for N-type 210RN wafers, it is 1.38-1.4 yuan/piece. Prices for 210R have softened, but the situation for 210mm is slightly better than for 183mm.

Production:

In October, there was a significant increase in the wafer production schedule, with top-tier enterprises increasing their operating rates instead of reducing them, and some specialized factories also planning to boost production. For Q4, according to the association's quota, wafer enterprises will generally cut production in November-December.

Inventory:

There has been a noticeable internal transfer of wafer inventory recently, with raw material inventory shifting from downstream to upstream finished product inventories, leading to a slight inventory buildup. Currently, total inventory is below a reasonable level, and enterprises are shipping out smoothly.

High-Purity Quartz Sand 

Price:

Current domestic prices for inner layer sand are 58,000-64,000 yuan/mt, for middle layer sand 25,000-31,000 yuan/mt, and for outer layer sand 17,000-21,000 yuan/mt. This week, the price of high-purity quartz sand for middle layers dropped slightly, while other prices remained temporarily stable. The bargaining sentiment between upstream and downstream enterprises has increased compared to earlier, with sand enterprises showing less willingness to offer discounts. However, the oversupply situation remains unchanged, and with expectations of falling wafer prices, purchases are being made cautiously. It is expected that sand prices will continue to fall.

Production

In October, domestic silicon metal companies maintained high operating rates, leading to a further increase in domestic production. Imports also saw growth in supply.

Inventory

Silicon metal companies have recently experienced continuous inventory buildup, while downstream purchase willingness remains low. It is expected that inventory will continue to rise.