Supply-Demand Tight Balance Supports Tin Prices Fluctuating at Highs; Short-Term Focus on 280,000 Yuan Support Level [SMM Tin Midday Review]

During the midday session on October 14, 2025, the price of the most-traded SHFE tin contract hovered around 282,300 yuan/mt. Recently, futures prices have been moving sideways within the range of 281,000-284,000 yuan/mt. LME tin futures fell 0.07% in sync to $35,725/mt.

Recent tin price movements were mainly supported by expectations of tightening supply. Indonesia, the world's largest tin exporter, ordered the closure of thousands of illegal tin mines and completely blocked smuggling channels at the end of September. This move may lead to an expansion of the global tin ore supply gap in Q4. As a source country accounting for over 25% of global supply, Indonesia's regulatory actions have heightened market concerns about the supply chain.

From a macro perspective, the probability of a US Fed interest rate cut in October is as high as 93%. Expectations of a weaker US dollar and loose liquidity have provided support for the non-ferrous metals sector. China-US trade relations remain a key variable for market volatility, but the overall macro environment is relatively favorable for metal prices. Technically, the most-traded SHFE tin contract has some support at the 280,000 yuan/mt level and may show a pattern of fluctuating at highs in the short term. Afternoon trading should focus on the follow-up increase in spot prices and downstream acceptance of current price levels. Operationally, it is advisable to adopt a wait-and-see approach and wait for a clear direction.