SMM Metal Production Data for September 2025 Released

Overview of Base Metal Production in September 2025

Copper Cathode

In September, China's copper cathode production, as surveyed by SMM, decreased significantly by 50,500 mt MoM, down 4.31%, but increased 11.62% YoY. Cumulative production from January to September rose by 1.0955 million mt YoY, up 12.22%.

The month-on-month drop of over 50,000 mt in copper cathode output was attributed by SMM to the following factors: 1) More smelters underwent maintenance in September, with five smelters having maintenance plans, involving 1 million mt of primary smelting capacity; the production loss due to maintenance increased MoM, with an actual impact of 18,300 mt. 2) Tight anode supply remained a major constraint on production this month. Many enterprises reported difficulty in purchasing copper anode. Due to unclear subsidy policies for copper scrap in Anhui and Jiangxi, anode producers using scrap were forced to widely purchase VAT-invoiced scrap. However, VAT-invoiced scrap was expensive and in limited supply, forcing some enterprises to cut production.

Overall, the operating rate for the sampled copper cathode industry in September was 84.06%, down 3.91 percentage points MoM. Specifically, the operating rate for large smelters was 88.20%, down 3.13 percentage points MoM; for medium smelters it was 78.92%, down 7.36 percentage points MoM; and for small smelters it was 59.89%, up 0.28 percentage points MoM. The operating rate for smelters using copper concentrates was 88.6%, down 3.5 percentage points MoM; for smelters primarily using copper scrap or anode, the rate was 62.3%, down 5.8 percentage points MoM. Entering October, SMM statistics show that six smelters will undergo maintenance, involving 1.4 million mt of primary smelting capacity; the production impact from maintenance is expected to increase significantly to 47,300 mt compared to September. The larger impact in October is mainly due to large-scale maintenance at a northern smelter, while others are mostly routine. Most enterprises stated that limited anode supply remains the primary reason for the increased production loss during maintenance. The impact of Document No. 770 (2025) from the National Development and Reform Commission in October remains unclear. The operating rate for smelters primarily using scrap or anode in October is expected to be 62.5%, up 0.2 percentage points MoM. The slight increase is mainly due to production ramp-up at individual enterprises.

Based on production schedules, SMM expects China's copper cathode production in October to decrease by 38,500 mt MoM, down 3.43%, but increase by 86,800 mt YoY, up 8.72%. Cumulative production from January to October is projected to rise by 1.1823 million mt YoY, up 11.87%. The operating rate for the sampled copper cathode industry in October is forecast at 81.11%, down 2.94 percentage points MoM. Specifically, the rate for large smelters is expected to be 83.65%, down 4.55 percentage points MoM; for medium smelters, 78.56%, down 0.36 percentage points MoM; and for small smelters, 64.22%, up 4.33 percentage points MoM. The operating rate of copper smelters using copper concentrates was 85.0%, down 3.6 percentage points MoM; the operating rate of smelters primarily using copper scrap or copper anode was 62.5%, up 0.2 percentage points MoM. Finally, we expect production in November may continue to decline, as five smelters have maintenance plans, and anode plate supply is expected to remain tight; additionally, with copper prices rising sharply, raw material processing fees staying low, and sulfuric acid prices showing signs of decline, smelters' willingness to increase production in Q4 has weakened.

Aluminum

According to SMM statistics, domestic aluminum production in September 2025 (30 days) increased 1.14% YoY but decreased 3.18% MoM. September entered the traditional peak season, and the proportion of liquid aluminum at domestic aluminum smelters rebounded slightly, with the industry's proportion of liquid aluminum rising 1.2 percentage points MoM to 76.3%. Based on SMM's liquid aluminum proportion data, domestic aluminum casting ingot volume in September decreased 8.67% YoY and fell 7.94% MoM to around 857,000 mt.

Capacity changes: As of the end of September, SMM statistics showed domestic aluminum existing capacity was approximately 45.84 million mt (SMM made adjustments after considering capacity replacement and old plant dismantling, eliminating some double-counted capacity), and domestic aluminum operating capacity was about 44.06 million mt. Domestic aluminum operating capacity increased slightly MoM in September, and the industry operating rate edged up MoM, mainly due to: the phase II replacement projects in Shandong and Yunnan gradually starting pot operation; and previous technological transformation projects in Guangxi gradually resuming production.

Production forecast: Entering October 2025, the commissioning of replacement projects and technological transformation projects is expected to further boost aluminum production, with daily average aluminum production projected to grow. Regarding the proportion of liquid aluminum, some northern enterprises currently report increased plans for direct sales of liquid aluminum next month, while a few southern enterprises report reduced plans for downstream aluminum billet enterprises to receive liquid aluminum. Overall, the proportion of liquid aluminum is expected to rebound 1 percentage point to 77.3%. Subsequent attention should be paid to actual demand during the peak season, and the shutdown of old capacity and commissioning plans for new capacity in replacement projects.

Alumina

According to SMM data, China's metallurgical-grade alumina production in September 2025 (30 days) increased 1.52% MoM and was up 10.00% YoY. As of the end of September, China's metallurgical-grade alumina existing capacity was about 110.32 million mt, and actual operating capacity rose 1.54% MoM, with an operating rate of 80.23%.

Daily average alumina production achieved a slight increase this month, but growth was restrained, mainly affected by the following factors: at the beginning of the month, due to the "September 3 military parade" event, some alumina refineries in the north temporarily reduced roasting furnace load during the parade period; meanwhile, some enterprises in the south conducted routine maintenance as planned, also reducing roasting load; additionally, falling alumina prices narrowed corporate profit margins, dampening enthusiasm for production increases. By mid to late month, as the earlier parade and regular maintenance concluded, enterprise operating rates gradually rebounded, driving a slight increase in monthly production. Despite lower spot prices in September leading to narrower profits, there was still room for profit based on the monthly average price. Therefore, alumina enterprises did not schedule production cuts or maintenance in September, maintaining a relatively high overall operating rate.

By region:

In September, there was a noticeable price difference between the southern and northern regions of the domestic alumina market. At the beginning of the month, supply in the south tightened slightly due to routine maintenance, supporting and sustaining firm prices; by mid to late month, with the recovery of supply, additional imports, and "north-to-south" shipments, the intention to hold firm on prices among southern suppliers weakened somewhat. Under the impact of lower-priced supplies from the north and imports, spot alumina prices in the south declined. However, profitability for alumina capacity in the south remains good, and no intentions of production cuts have been heard yet.

In contrast, quotations in the northern market were under pressure throughout the month, maintaining a downward trend. Entering October, the monthly average price is expected to fall below the cash cost of higher-cost enterprises, leading some to incur losses and possibly cut production.

Forecast for next month: The alumina market in October is expected to continue its surplus situation. After entering October, the monthly average price is anticipated to come under pressure and gradually approach the cost line, putting some higher-cost enterprises at risk of losses, which may prompt them to take proactive measures such as cutting production and maintenance. As supply tightens, the current surplus is expected to ease somewhat. However, given that adjustments in supply and demand will take time, prices are likely to remain in the doldrums. Operating capacity of alumina is expected to decrease during the month, with the industry's operating capacity in October forecasted to be around 88.98 million mt.

Overseas aluminum

According to SMM, total overseas aluminum production in September 2025 increased by 2.9% YoY; the monthly average operating rate was 88.7%, down 0.1 percentage points MoM and up 0.3 percentage points YoY. By the end of September, cumulative production for 2025 had risen 2.9% YoY.

In August, Century Aluminium announced the restart of a 50,000 mt production line at its Mt. Holly plant in South Carolina, increasing the facility's annual output to 220,000 mt. The first batch of products from the new electrolytic cells is expected in Q1 2026, reaching full capacity by the end of Q2 2026.

South32's Mozal aluminum smelter in Mozambique, Africa, has not reached an agreement with the government and energy supplier HCB. South32 plans to place Mozal into care and maintenance in March 2026, and expects its share of production to drop to about 240,000 mt in the 2026 fiscal year (July 1, 2025 - June 30, 2026), down from 355,000 mt in the 2025 fiscal year.

Alcoa announced that the production resumption, which was delayed due to the nationwide power outage in spring, resumed progress in August. The company previously aimed to gradually complete the production resumption and increase operating load by mid-2026.

Looking ahead to October, no additional aluminum enterprises are currently expected to commission, resume, or cut production. The overseas aluminum operating rate in October is forecast at approximately 88.8%, up 0.1 percentage point MoM and up 0.6 percentage point YoY.

Overseas Metallurgical-Grade Alumina

According to SMM statistics, overseas metallurgical-grade alumina production in August 2025 increased by 7.4% YoY. The average operating rate for overseas alumina refineries rose to 82.1%, up 0.5% MoM and up 2.3% YoY. By the end of August, cumulative production for 2025 had increased by 4.2% YoY.

This month's increase was primarily from Indonesia: the Phase III (1 million mt/year) of PT Bintan Alumina Indonesia (BAI), which was commissioned in June under Nanshan Holding Group, is steadily ramping up production and is expected to reach full capacity by year-end. The commissioning plan for Phase IV (1 million mt/year) will commence immediately thereafter.

In Australia, on September 16, major alumina producer Alcoa signed a $30 million funding agreement with Western Gas. The core objective is to secure long-term and stable natural gas supply for its alumina refining operations in Western Australia to address future energy challenges. It is expected to meet approximately 25% of the long-term natural gas requirements for alumina processing across all of Alcoa's alumina refineries in Western Australia. On September 29, aluminum producer Alcoa Corp announced the permanent closure of its Kwinana alumina refinery in Western Australia. The refinery had been idled since June 2024, and the announcement of its permanent closure currently has no impact on the global supply-demand balance.

In Asia, on September 10, Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) announced the successful completion of the de-bottlenecking expansion project at its Al Taweelah alumina refinery. This included the addition of a third ball mill, enabling the alumina refinery to adjust its bauxite procurement sources and reduce reliance on Guinea, which will further enhance the company's operational stability. Upon project completion, the refinery's annual alumina capacity can be increased by up to 50,000 mt.

Looking ahead to October, overseas metallurgical-grade alumina production is expected to increase by 5.7% YoY. The operating rate is projected to reach 82.2%, up 0.15% MoM and up 1.1% YoY.

Primary Lead

National primary lead production in September 2025 saw a slight increase, up 0.94 percentage point MoM and up 12.37 percentage points compared to the same period last year. Electrolytic lead production from January to September 2025 rose 8.68 percentage points YoY.

It is understood that in September, the increase and decrease in production by electrolytic lead smelters largely offset each other, with little change in output. During September, lead smelters in Central and North China underwent routine maintenance or reduced production due to undersupply of lead concentrates, resulting in a reduction of over 10,000 mt. Meanwhile, smelters in Central and Northeast China resumed operations after maintenance. As lead prices fluctuated upward and broke through the 17,000 yuan mark in September, especially with the price of silver, a by-product of lead smelting, continuously hitting new historical highs, smelters in South China showed increased enthusiasm for production. Some enterprises gradually increased their output, also contributing an increment of over 10,000 mt. Therefore, the overall electrolytic lead production only saw a slight increase.

Looking ahead to October, as we enter Q4, lead smelters will begin their traditional winter stockpiling period. Given the high demand for lead concentrates this year, smelters started stockpiling from August. Coupled with the record-high silver prices, negotiations for high-grade lead concentrates have become particularly challenging, leading to further declines in lead concentrate TCs, with some imported ores already quoted at -US$170/dmt. Regarding the production plans of lead smelters, medium and large-scale smelters in Central and North China, having completed maintenance in September, are expected to resume production, bringing about a certain degree of production increase. Additionally, as it is Q4, some enterprises aim to boost their annual production and sales, especially during periods when lead and silver prices rise, which can further stimulate production enthusiasm. Even though some medium and large-scale enterprises plan to undergo maintenance in October, this will not alter the trend of increasing monthly production. Overall, SMM expects electrolytic lead production in October to increase by approximately 2% MoM.

Secondary Lead

In September 2025, secondary lead production showed a downward trend, decreasing 0.99% MoM but increasing 5.52% YoY; secondary refined lead production fell 4.85% MoM and decreased 6.11% YoY.

At the beginning of September, due to the SCO summit and parade activities, the business of some recyclers in North China slowed down, leading to a regional tightening of scrap battery supply. At the same time, lack of confidence in end-use consumption and a bearish outlook on lead prices led to production cuts by smelters in Hebei, while a large smelter in Inner Mongolia entered a shutdown maintenance phase. In East China, some smelters ceased operations in early September for equipment maintenance. A large smelter in southwest China resumed production in early September after completing its equipment maintenance. In late September, the consumption of lead-acid batteries for two-wheeled bicycles improved, and lead prices fluctuated upward, prompting some secondary lead smelters in East China to increase production. Overall, the production increases from resuming and ramping up operations offset the decreases from those cutting or halting production, resulting in a smaller-than-expected decline in secondary refined lead production in September.

The first ten days of October coincided with the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, with most production resumption plans for secondary lead smelters scheduled for mid-month. Official output only commenced in late October after furnace drying was completed, contributing weakly to October's production expectations. Additionally, as some enterprises remain cautious about the recovery in downstream lead-acid battery consumption, actual production resumption is closely tied to lead price trends, scrap battery supply, and smelting profits.

Refined Zinc

SMM China's refined zinc production in September 2025 decreased by approximately 4% MoM, but was up over 20% YoY. Cumulative production from January to September increased by nearly 9% YoY, falling below expectations. Domestic zinc alloy production in September was basically flat MoM. Production at domestic smelters declined in September, due not only to routine maintenance in regions like Hunan and Inner Mongolia, but also to unexpected maintenance in Henan and Guangxi, which contributed to the reduction. Conversely, production increases and resumed operations after maintenance in Hunan, Shaanxi, Gansu, and Hubei provided some offsetting volume. Overall, September saw a significant production decline.

SMM forecasts China's refined zinc production in October 2025 to increase by 4% MoM and 22% YoY, with cumulative production from January to October 2025 expected to be up 10% YoY. Major maintenance in October is concentrated in Henan, Hunan, Gansu, and Jiangxi, with additional reductions from Shaanxi and Sichuan. Increments are mainly from the resumption of operations after maintenance in Henan, Inner Mongolia, Gansu, Guangxi, and Hunan. While overall production is expected to increase MoM, significant challenges regarding smelter raw materials are emerging. Declining domestic concentrate TCs and lower sulphuric acid prices are squeezing smelter profits. Simultaneously, rising prices for recycled raw materials and resulting losses have led some secondary zinc smelters to voluntarily reduce output, collectively limiting the extent of the production increase.

Refined Tin

Based on SMM's data processed from market communication, China's refined tin production in September 2025 decreased by 31.71% MoM, while showing a slight increase of 0.1% YoY. This production decline was primarily influenced by maintenance shutdowns at some enterprises, analyzed by region as follows:

According to General Administration of Customs data, China's imports of tin concentrates by physical content reached 10,267 mt in August 2025, flat MoM. Import volumes from the DRC, Russia, and Bolivia declined, but overall levels remained normal, attributed merely to shipping schedules and other logistical factors. Imports of tin ore from Myanmar rebounded, showing signs of short-term supply improvement following the approval of mining licenses. Import volumes from other regions and countries remained at previous levels.

Yunnan region: TC for 40% grade tin concentrates in Yunnan remained low. Domestic smelters' raw material inventory generally fell below 30 days. Some enterprises underwent maintenance in September, further pushing down the capacity utilization rate. Smelters that halted production for maintenance are expected to gradually resume operations in October, so overall tin ingot production in Yunnan is projected to rebound in October.

Jiangxi region: Disruption in scrap supply chain: The tin scrap recycling system was under pressure, with the circulation volume of secondary materials in the market dropping by over 30%. The undersupply of crude tin directly hindered any increase in refined production. Some smelters slightly cut production this month, while others maintained normal output.

Other regions: Shortage of dual raw materials: Supply of both tin concentrates and tin scrap remained weak. The operating rate has long stayed below 70% of planned capacity. Maintenance planned by some enterprises further suppressed production, with the operating rate at certain smelters already falling to the year's low.

Based on SMM calculations, refined tin production in October is forecast to rebound by 36.92% MoM. Driving factors: Some smelters in Yunnan and Guangxi concluded their production halts for maintenance.

Refined Nickel

In September 2025, SMM refined nickel production increased 1% MoM and rose 13% YoY, with cumulative growth up 24% YoY. The operating rate for domestic refined nickel enterprises was 66%. The operating rate remained stable in September, with each producer operating normally according to their production plans. The commissioning of new domestic refined nickel projects was delayed, resulting in no significant fluctuations in overall refined nickel production. Price-wise, the average spot price of SMM #1 refined nickel in September was 122,623 yuan/mt, up 678 yuan/mt MoM, indicating a slight price rise. In the spot market, the average premium for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel in September was 2,200 yuan/mt, down 100 yuan/mt MoM. The premium/discount range for mainstream domestic electrodeposited nickel was -150 to 200 yuan/mt, lower than the previous month. On the demand side, downstream demand in September fell short of expectations. Spot trading volume recovered slightly compared to August, with procurement only for rigid demand when nickel prices were at relatively low levels, indicating low purchasing enthusiasm.

Going forward, affected by tight supply of intermediate product raw materials and the temporary delay in new refined nickel projects, refined nickel production is unlikely to see significant growth in the short term. October refined nickel output is forecast to increase slightly by 2% MoM.

Nickel Pig Iron (NPI)

In September 2025, China's NPI production by physical volume increased 3.63% MoM, while metal content decreased 9.31% MoM. The physical volume of NPI production in China rose MoM in September, but metal content declined. NPI prices remained high throughout September, continuing a slow upward trend. However, reduced procurement from downstream and high inventory leading to production cuts at some smelters caused a decrease in high-grade NPI output, driving down the metal content of national NPI production. Supply side, Philippine ore prices held steady in September, while core costs such as auxiliary materials and electricity prices continued to rise. NPI smelters remained in a state of losses, providing bottom support for NPI prices. Being in the traditional peak season, most NPI smelters also maintained a stance to refuse to budge on prices. Demand side, stainless steel production increased MoM during the peak season, but the increment in 300-series stainless steel output fell short of expectations, while downstream enterprises maintained ample stockpiles, leading to a decline in market procurement volume within the month. On the other hand, although consumption saw some growth during the peak season, stainless steel product prices struggled to recover, and low downstream stainless steel margins capped the rise in NPI prices. Overall, firm cost lines provided bottom support, yet consumption growth was hard to come by, and downstream margins restrained price increases. In September, high-grade NPI smelters faced slow destocking and reduced production, while increased production of 200-series stainless steel drove growth in low-grade NPI output. Ultimately, NPI physical content increased MoM, while metal content decreased MoM.

Looking ahead, as peak season support weakens and high-grade NPI prices turn downward, SMM expects high-grade NPI production to continue declining in October. However, due to continued production increases in 200-series stainless steel, low-grade NPI output is projected to rebound MoM. SMM forecasts China's NPI physical content to increase 1.39% MoM in October, with metal content down 0.43% MoM.

Indonesian NPI

In September 2025, Indonesian NPI physical content rose 0.78% MoM, and metal content increased 1.42% MoM. Entering September, the NPI price center remained high, Indonesian smelters continued to profit, and downstream demand grew during the traditional peak season, leading to increases in both physical content and metal content of Indonesian NPI.

Looking forward, Indonesian stainless steel production schedules continue to grow MoM in October, and new stainless steel capacity is expected to commence operation by month-end, boosting demand for NPI. Amid overall demand growth, SMM anticipates Indonesian NPI physical content to rise 1.57% MoM in October 2025, with metal content up 0.98% MoM.

Nickel Sulphate

According to SMM data, in September 2025, SMM's nickel sulphate production is expected to reach approximately 34,000 mt in metal content, corresponding to a physical content output of about 154,400 mt, up about 11.45% MoM and 4.75% YoY. Demand side, during the September-October peak season for auto sales, downstream raw material stocking demand increased in September, leading to higher procurement of nickel salts. Supply side, some nickel salt producers saw output growth due to toll processing orders, while integrated enterprises increased nickel sulphate stockpiling in response to growing precursor orders, resulting in higher market supply of nickel salts. Looking at the October market, nickel sulphate raw material supply remains tight, but precursor plants' demand for nickel salts shows no significant pullback, coupled with production resumption plans by some producers. Nickel sulphate supply is still expected to see slight growth. By October, SMM's nickel sulphate production is projected to increase to approximately 35,700 mt in metal content, with physical content output estimated at 162,200 mt, up about 5.07% MoM and about 24.26% YoY.

Battery-Grade Manganese Sulphate

In September 2025, high-purity manganese sulphate production showed a significant increase MoM, with a certain degree of growth on a YoY basis. Supply side, manganese salt producers demonstrated strong production scheduling intentions this month. As the traditional September-October peak season approached, market stockpiling demand gradually released, directly boosting the execution scale of long-term contracts for high-purity manganese sulphate. Market activity significantly improved, leading to a noticeable increase in supply volume for the month, with outstanding MoM growth. Meanwhile, producers steadily advanced long-term contract deliveries, and inventory levels were mostly drawn down to low ranges. Additionally, influenced by the sharp rise in cobalt prices, downstream market concerns about further price increases led to hoarding behavior, which also boosted procurement enthusiasm to some extent, creating a slight shortage tension in the market. Looking ahead to October 2025, the downstream ternary cathode precursor market is expected to maintain steady growth, which is likely to further boost the production scale of manganese salt plants. Overall, high-purity manganese sulphate production is projected to achieve MoM growth again in October, with the YoY growth rate remaining at a certain level.

EMD

In September 2025, EMD production showed a slight increase MoM. First, the primary battery market entered its peak demand season. EMD producers focused on ensuring the delivery of existing orders, accompanied by the landing of some new orders. This directly drove a certain increase in production of zinc-carbon and alkaline manganese batteries, thereby supporting the rise in EMD production. Second, competition in the LMO market, downstream of MnO2 used for LMO battery, intensified. Most enterprises, aiming to reduce costs, switched to the more cost-effective Mn3O4 as an alternative raw material. This led to a decline in demand for MnO2 used for LMO battery, and its production scheduling scale failed to grow, remaining generally stable. Looking ahead to October 2025, driven by the traditional September-October peak season and continued release of positive factors from a macro perspective in the manganese market, EMD producers are expected to further expand their production scheduling scale, with a high likelihood of additional new orders. Therefore, total EMD production is projected to continue its growth trend in October 2025.

Mn3O4

In September 2025, Mn3O4 production showed a slight increase MoM. From a product grade perspective, both electronic-grade and battery-grade Mn3O4 production achieved a certain degree of growth. First, LMO market demand showed signs of growth in September 2025, leading to an increase in procurement volume of raw material battery-grade Mn3O4 from downstream sectors. This trend directly drove an increase in the production scheduling scale of Mn3O4 producers. Second, the future development potential of the Mn3O4 industry is relatively promising. Some manganese sulphate producers have begun planning for new capacity, while some LMO enterprises are extending forward in the industry chain to start their own Mn3O4 production, making the sources of market growth more diverse. Third, the electronic-grade Mn3O4 market has entered its traditional peak season, with some incremental demand also present. Looking ahead to October 2025, the Mn3O4 market is expected to maintain a positive trend. With the LMO market showing signs of recovery, it will further boost the demand for battery-grade Mn3O4, thereby driving up its production schedule. Total Mn3O4 production in October 2025 is projected to continue its upward trend, with the YoY growth rate remaining optimistic.

High-Carbon Ferrochrome

According to SMM data, total high-carbon ferrochrome production in September 2025 was 793,700 mt, down 1.9% MoM from August. This was mainly due to production halts and cuts by some producers in northern Inner Mongolia, where actual output fell short of expectations, dropping 3.5% MoM. In contrast, southern regions such as Sichuan, Guizhou, and Guangxi leveraged low electricity prices during the rainy season and peak-shaving production, resulting in a slight 0.53% MoM increase in output. As the traditional September-October peak season began, the downstream stainless steel market showed signs of recovery, with planned production further increasing, driving sustained growth in demand for raw material ferrochrome. Meanwhile, raw material inventories at some steel mills were relatively tight, leading to frequent inquiries and purchases. Robust demand supported higher ferrochrome prices and output. The September steel mill tender price for high-carbon ferrochrome rose by 300 yuan to 8,295 yuan/mt (50% metal content), slightly exceeding market expectations of a 100-200 yuan increase. Producer confidence improved significantly, and with expanded profit margins, production enthusiasm was high, with most operating at full capacity. Additionally, a sharp decline in ferrochrome imports stimulated domestic producers to actively produce and capture market share. Operating rates remained high, and overall, domestic ferrochrome production fluctuated at elevated levels.

Looking ahead to October, ferrochrome output may hit a new high. On September 23, Tsingshan announced the October tender price for high-carbon ferrochrome at 8,495 yuan/mt (50% metal content), up 200 yuan MoM, in line with earlier market expectations. This has bolstered producer confidence to some extent, and with retail ferrochrome prices remaining high, ferrochrome producers overall maintained profitability and production enthusiasm. Against the backdrop of a supply gap caused by continued reductions in ferrochrome imports, southern regions are leveraging the rainy season advantage to operate at full capacity, while suspended or reduced production facilities in northern Inner Mongolia are preparing to resume output. Domestic ferrochrome production is expected to increase. Furthermore, the September-October peak season effect continues to drive steady growth in downstream stainless steel production schedules, supporting rigid demand for ferrochrome. Under these dual favorable conditions, domestic ferrochrome output may continue to rise and break historical records.

Stainless Steel

SMM data shows that national stainless steel production in September 2025 increased by 3.02% MoM and 5.79% YoY. By series, 200-series output rose 10.51% MoM, 300-series output increased 0.45% MoM, and 400-series output fell 0.84% MoM. In September, overall stainless steel production continued to climb, though it was slightly lower than initial expectations, with a relatively small increase. As the traditional consumption peak season of "September-October peak season" officially began, despite widespread pessimism among market traders, actual demand showed a noticeable rebound compared to earlier periods. Mid-month, social inventory of stainless steel achieved destocking for 11 consecutive weeks, with inventory levels pulling back to those seen at the beginning of the year. Additionally, within the month, the US Fed completed its first 20-basis-point interest rate cut, providing some tailwinds for commodity prices and fostering a relatively optimistic market sentiment in the first half of September. Meanwhile, for most of the month, stainless steel mills maintained certain profit margins, keeping production enthusiasm at a high level. Although some mills faced production disruptions due to maintenance and environmental protection factors, overall production still showed an upward trend.

Looking ahead to October, stainless steel production is expected to see a slight increase. Currently, amid the traditional consumption peak season of "September-October peak season" and low stainless steel inventory levels, stainless steel mills face relatively little pressure in terms of sales and funding, allowing production to generally maintain previous levels. Furthermore, stainless steel mills affected by maintenance and equipment upgrades have completed adjustments and resumed normal production, which is expected to contribute to an overall increase in production. However, the recovery in downstream demand for stainless steel remains limited, failing to exhibit the robust momentum typical of a peak season. Coupled with the fact that short-term macro tailwinds have largely been released, SS futures are showing a downward trend, and market wait-and-see sentiment is intensifying. Spot prices have subsequently declined, leading to renewed cost-profit inversion for stainless steel mills, which, to some extent, dampens production enthusiasm and makes it difficult for stainless steel production to achieve significant growth. Going forward, close attention should be paid to further recovery in downstream demand and the additional release of macro tailwinds.

EMM

In September 2025, EMM production showed an upward trend MoM. On one hand, the downstream stainless steel market ended its previous decline and rebounded, while macro perspective policies released favorable signals. Under this dual effect, stainless steel market confidence steadily recovered this month, and procurement transaction volumes expanded compared to earlier periods. This trend, in turn, boosted EMM procurement demand, prompting manganese plants to increase their production schedules. On the other hand, some manganese plants that had previously halted production for maintenance resumed normal operations, which also provided a slight boost to market activity. Looking ahead to October 2025, as the traditional consumption peak season of "September-October peak season" continues to progress, although the recovery pace in downstream end-use consumption sectors has not yet met expectations, demand from the infrastructure and real estate sectors is gradually being released, and market demand is expected to remain on a recovery trajectory. Considering multiple factors, EMM production in October is expected to continue rising MoM.

SiMn Alloy

China's total SiMn alloy production saw a notable increase in September 2025, rising both YoY and MoM. Regionally, the growth mainly came from key northern production areas—Inner Mongolia and Ningxia, while output in southern regions such as Guangxi, Guizhou, and Yunnan also increased slightly MoM.

The MoM growth in SiMn alloy production in September was mainly driven by two factors. First, production operations remained stable. Key production bases in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia maintained high operating rates, and newly added capacity in both regions was smoothly released in September, further pushing up the operating rate slightly and directly boosting production. Although overall operating rhythms in the south changed relatively little, Yunnan was in the final window of preferential electricity prices during the rainy season, offering significant cost advantages in power. Local producers showed little willingness to cut production, and with Guangxi, Guizhou, and other provinces following order-based production schedules and adding new capacity, southern output achieved steady growth. Second, expectations for the traditional consumption season were gradually realized. In September, mainstream steel mill HBIS set its SiMn alloy procurement price at 6,000 yuan/mt. Although this price pulled back MoM, it still provided some support to the current SiMn market. Additionally, multiple positive macro and industry-level developments emerged during the month. The abundance of favorable macro factors also supported the upward trend in SiMn market prices, prompting SiMn alloy producers to expand production scale accordingly.

Looking ahead to October 2025, SiMn alloy production may show a slight downward trend. On one hand, cost-side support is likely to weaken. The preferential electricity price period during the southern rainy season ends in October, and power costs for local SiMn enterprises will rise significantly. Some Yunnan plants have already indicated they will adjust production plans based on cost changes, showing willingness to cut output. On the other hand, the boost from the traditional peak consumption season may fall short of expectations. Reviewing August and September 2025, China's SiMn alloy output achieved substantial growth for two consecutive months, gradually accumulating market supply pressure. Entering October, despite the traditional September-October peak season, steel mill demand had already been partially front-loaded in previous months, leaving relatively small room for further production increases, which will constrain SiMn alloy output.

Silicon Wafers

In September, silicon wafer enterprises significantly raised production, with output up 5.37% MoM. After multiple rounds of price hikes during the month, gross margins for 183mm silicon wafers turned positive, and although the other two sizes did not yet achieve profitability, their selling prices covered cash costs. As a result, production enthusiasm improved noticeably, leading to a substantial increase in silicon wafer output. Entering October, Q4 quota restrictions combined with lower raw material and power costs during the rainy season may lead silicon wafer enterprises to implement appropriate production cuts. Silicon wafer output in October is expected to decline.

Polysilicon

Actual polysilicon production in September saw a slight decrease compared to August, down approximately 1.26% MoM. The decline in September polysilicon output was mainly due to significant production cuts by some manufacturers in Qinghai. In contrast, operating rate increases and new capacity commissioning in regions such as Xinjiang and Ningxia partially offset the output reduction, resulting in relatively small overall changes. Polysilicon production in October is projected to increase beyond market expectations, primarily driven by capacity resumptions in Qinghai and capacity ramp-up of new facilities in other regions. Meanwhile, production cuts are also expected at some top-tier enterprise bases.

Silicon Metal

According to SMM market communication, domestic silicon metal production in September 2025 increased by 35,100 mt, up 9.1% MoM, but decreased by 33,300 mt, down 7.3% YoY. Cumulative silicon metal output from January to September 2025 totaled 3.0177 million mt, a decrease of 18.3% YoY.

September output maintained a MoM increase, mainly contributed by the Xinjiang production region, where output increased by approximately 34,000 mt MoM, while fluctuations in other regions were relatively limited.

In October, the total planned production for silicon metal continues to increase. On one hand, capacity that resumed production in Xinjiang in September will be fully reflected in October's output, coupled with additional production startup plans by leading silicon enterprises in October. On the other hand, as the transition period between the dry and rainy seasons approaches in Sichuan and Yunnan, most operating silicon enterprises plan to reduce or halt production by the end of October, resulting in a relatively limited impact on October's output reduction. Additionally, October has one more production day. Overall, silicon metal output in October is expected to reach the annual high, with a projected MoM increase of 8.5%.

PV Module

Module manufacturers saw increased production in September, but actual output was lower than initially planned at the beginning of the month. Overall production rose by approximately 1.05% compared to August. Recent module demand has declined again; overseas demand cooled as stockpiling essentially ended, while domestic distributed projects decreased rapidly and growth in centralized projects fell short of expectations, leading to a drop in module enterprises' orders on hand. Moreover, recent module costs continued to rise, increasing production pressure on enterprises and causing a further decline in the October production schedule. Looking at the October module production schedule, the operating rate is expected to decrease by 3.19% compared to September.

Solar Cell

Global solar cell production scheduling by Chinese enterprises reached approximately 61 GW in September, up 4.86% MoM, with domestic scheduling at about 60 GW, an increase of 4.78% MoM. The growth in this month's scheduling was mainly driven by strong overseas market demand, particularly in India, where procurement was front-loaded to cope with the ALMM policy window period, sustaining high demand for 183N solar cells. Against this backdrop, battery enterprises generally maintained a high willingness to operate, with integrated enterprises showing a more significant production increase to strengthen supply chain control and ensure stable raw material supply. Meanwhile, the market's structural preference for large-size, high-efficiency solar cells continued to strengthen, driving the overall production structure further toward high-efficiency models such as 210N.

Although, affected by pressure transmission from the module side by month-end, some enterprises plan to moderately lower their production schedule in October, and the industry is expected to enter an adjustment phase of "controlling volume to maintain prices and optimizing structure," for the full month, supported by overseas demand and the cost side, the battery market still achieved mild production growth in September, with the competitive advantage of high-efficiency capacity further consolidated.

PV Film

The total planned production in the PV film industry in September rose 1.58% MoM. The main reason was the increase in module production schedule in September, leading to higher overall operating rates at film plants. With module production expected to decline in October, overall PV film production is projected to see a slight decrease.

PV-Grade EVA

Planned production of PV-grade EVA in September increased 17% MoM. The primary reasons were the rise in module production schedule in September, improved operating rates at film plants, and enhanced purchase willingness among film enterprises, with some petrochemical companies receiving PV orders and scheduling PV-grade material production. According to SMM, as demand gradually slows down in October, some petrochemical companies may switch to non-PV material production, and PV-grade material output is expected to show a slight downward trend.

PV Glass

Domestic PV glass monthly production in September stopped declining and turned to growth, up 0.14% MoM from August. Although the number of production days in September was one day less than in August, actual production increased compared to August. The main reason for the production growth was that due to rising glass prices, some previously idled furnaces began to resume production, leading to an increase in domestic operating capacity. SMM statistics show nearly 2,000 mt/day of new operating capacity added within the month, and high module production on the demand side also provided some support. In terms of October supply, due to an increase in PV glass production days, combined with plans for some new furnaces to start production and previously released capacity reaching full production, overall glass production is expected to rise again, with estimated production up 3.81% MoM from September.

DMC

Domestic silicone DMC production in September decreased 5.78% MoM from August but increased 4.63% YoY. In September, firstly, due to unexpected incidents at monomer plants in Zhejiang, previously maintained facilities failed to resume production on time, and secondly, some monomer plants in North China and Shandong initiated load reduction operations due to various reasons including the period, costs, inventory, and equipment, resulting in a slight contraction in overall supply for the month. Regarding subsequent operations, units undergoing maintenance in early October will gradually resume production, and the operating rate will see a slight increase. Therefore, it is estimated that silicone production in October will increase by approximately 9.1% MoM compared to September.

Magnesium Ingot

According to SMM data, China's primary magnesium production in September 2025 increased by 8.33% MoM, with the operating rate adjusted up to 66.03%.

In September, primary magnesium production increased by 8.33% MoM. The growth was attributed to two factors: first, magnesium plants generally underwent maintenance in July and August due to high summer temperatures, resulting in production well below average; most plants resumed production in September, boosting output. Second, from late Q2 to early Q3, magnesium prices fluctuated at highs while raw material costs remained low, leading to a significant recovery in profitability. Plants that had previously halted production due to cost issues gradually resumed operations, driving production growth.

By September, primary magnesium production from January to September 2025 caught up with or even exceeded the same period in 2024. In H1 2024, production trended higher as policies on semi-coke rectification were gradually implemented, but then in September, unilateral declines in magnesium prices caused losses for most plants, leading to batch shutdowns. In H1 2025, affected by earlier market conditions, production hovered at low levels and entered a prolonged destocking phase. Low production and inventory drove magnesium prices higher and restored plant confidence, ultimately enabling January-September production to catch up with the same period in 2024.

SMM expects domestic primary magnesium production to continue growing in October 2025, with increments mainly from production resumptions in Ningxia, Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia, and other regions. Overall, raw material costs for primary magnesium smelters remain high, and increased supply puts pressure on magnesium prices. Smelter profit margins may compress again, and some producers may voluntarily reduce production due to losses, collectively limiting the extent of production growth.

Magnesium Alloy

SMM data shows that China's magnesium alloy production in September 2025 increased by 7.76% MoM and 16.64% YoY, with cumulative growth up 7.78% YoY. The operating rate for magnesium alloy in September was adjusted up to 62.38%.

In September, magnesium alloy demand grew significantly, inventory was generally at a loss, most producers operated on order-based schedules, and spot supply was tight. Although some alloy producers actively increased production to boost magnesium ingot supply, restrictions in the smelting environment and high summer temperatures made it difficult for leading producers to recruit workers for production lines. Even facing delivery challenges due to tight spot supply, they could not raise operating rates. Overall, the magnesium alloy market saw both supply and demand increase in September. Alloy demand driven by end-use demand from electric two-wheelers and NEVs far exceeded supply growth, resulting in an undersupply market, with processing fees on an upward trend.

In October, magnesium alloy production is expected to increase slightly. As high temperatures gradually subside, recruitment difficulties in production workshops are expected to ease, and leading producers' operating rates are likely to continue rising. Meanwhile, current increases in alloy processing fees have improved processing profit margins, and new capacity at alloy plants of primary magnesium producers in Shaanxi is expected to be released in October. Overall, alloy production is expected to trend upward.

Magnesium Powder

According to SMM data, China's magnesium powder production in September 2025 decreased by 3.60% MoM, with the operating rate falling to 42.25%.

Magnesium powder production declined in September: some manufacturers faced dual pressures from domestic and overseas demand, with the domestic consumer market remaining sluggish, procurement demand from steel enterprises shrinking, and the issuance of Announcement No. 17 adding uncertainty to the practice of forging or purchasing customs clearance documents from other import and export firms, leading to a drop in export orders. These enterprises proactively reduced their capacity utilization rates. Although some companies reported strong orders and increased production, the growth in output was insufficient to offset the overall decline, ultimately dragging down total September production. It is expected that as policies regarding forging or purchasing customs clearance documents from other import and export firms are gradually implemented, foreign trade orders for magnesium powder may increase, leading to a slight rise in production in October.

Titanium Dioxide

According to SMM data, China's titanium dioxide production in September 2025 increased by 2.41% MoM.

Demand in the titanium dioxide market was strong this month, with trading volume rising significantly and enterprises achieving notable destocking, as inventory fell by 14.03% MoM. The demand growth was mainly driven by the sulphuric acid process titanium dioxide market, fueled by: first, the recovery in domestic coating demand during the September peak season; second, a surge in overseas orders as European sulphuric acid process orders shifted to China following the closure of Venator's plant in Germany; and third, a production halt due to an accident at a leading domestic enterprise's sulphuric acid process line, intensifying expectations of tight supply. Although some previously idled enterprises resumed production in September, keeping overall output stable, with continuous inventory drawdowns, multiple companies issued second price adjustment letters since mid-month, and month-end quotations remained high. Looking ahead to October, the sustainability of market demand remains to be seen, and prices may face a potential correction from high levels.

Sponge Titanium

According to SMM data, China's sponge titanium production in September 2025 increased by 9.57% MoM.

The sponge titanium market generally continued its weak and stable trend this month. The production rebound was mainly due to enterprises that had previously announced production cuts resuming operations in September without further expanding reductions. Demand in September showed structural divergence: high-end sponge titanium performed strongly, supported by orders from aerospace and defense sectors, while civilian-grade sponge titanium prices continued to decline, with the overall titanium material market experiencing oversupply and corresponding price divergence. In domestic and overseas markets, domestic demand recovered somewhat in September, but overseas demand in Q3 weakened compared to H1, leaving the export market generally stable. The sponge titanium market is expected to maintain a weak supply-demand balance in October, with prices likely to remain weak and stable.

Light Rare Earths

In September, Pr-Nd oxide production continued to grow MoM, with the main increments concentrated in Shandong, Jiangsu, and Jiangxi. From the perspective of Pr-Nd oxide sources, the output of Pr-Nd oxide from raw ore separation enterprises decreased by nearly 3% MoM. However, the production from scrap recycling enterprises saw a significant increase in September, leading to an overall rise in total Pr-Nd oxide output for the month. It is understood that a portion of separation plants will continue to halt production in October; therefore, some industry participants expect Pr-Nd oxide production to decline to some extent in October.

In September, the production of Pr-Nd alloy remained relatively stable overall, with only a slight decrease of 0.27%. The main reasons were production cuts at some plants in Jiangxi due to lower-than-expected order schedules, while output increased in Inner Mongolia and Fujian due to capacity expansion and adjustments to production plans. Looking ahead to October, as order situations at metal enterprises stabilize, Pr-Nd alloy production is expected to operate steadily.

Medium-Heavy Rare Earth

In September, the production of medium-heavy rare earth oxides continued its previous growth trend, maintaining a relatively high growth rate. However, judging from the production situation at separation plants, the successive halts of some separation enterprises in September directly led to a slight MoM contraction in the total output of rare earth oxides from raw ore separation enterprises compared to the previous month. Nevertheless, the scrap recycling sector showed strong vitality this month, with many scrap recycling enterprises significantly raising their operating rates, injecting new supply power into the market. Thanks to the active performance of scrap recycling enterprises, the output of rare earth oxides from the recycling end achieved substantial growth. Overall, despite reduced output from the raw ore separation segment, the strong replenishment from the recycling end resulted in no decrease in the total supply of medium-heavy rare earth oxides on a MoM basis; instead, it showed an increasing trend.

NdFeB

China's NdFeB magnetic material production remained flat MoM in September 2025. Price-wise: After September, Pr-Nd oxide prices fell significantly, with overall prices showing a stable-to-declining trend, which to some extent alleviated cost pressure on magnetic material enterprises. The partial release of cost-side pressure reduced the wait-and-see sentiment among magnetic material enterprises, and production pace stabilized. On the demand side, white goods such as air conditioners entered the off-season as summer ended, and the 3C electronics sector faced saturated demand due to a lack of new model stimulation, leading to a reduction in low-end magnetic material orders. The NEV sector, driven by the domestic program of large-scale equipment upgrades and consumer goods trade-ins, is expected to see a full-year demand growth for rare earth magnetic materials of around 25%; expectations for wind power installation releases strengthened, driving up the usage of permanent magnets. Additionally, sectors like industrial robots and humanoid robots saw a surge in demand for high-BH magnetic materials, partially offsetting the decline in traditional sectors. In terms of industry concentration, concentration had already become apparent in August, with top-tier enterprises accounting for 70.45% of total production. This trend continued in September, with the output share of top-tier enterprises reaching 72.55%, further increasing MoM. Leveraging advantages in raw material reserves, export qualifications, and customer structure, top-tier enterprises maintained operating rates above 67%, while small and medium-sized enterprises continued to exit the market amid cost and policy barriers. The concentration of capacity toward leading players has curbed sharp fluctuations in overall production, steering the industry toward a stable structure where the strong get stronger.

Molybdenum Concentrate

According to SMM data, China's molybdenum concentrate production in September 2025 increased slightly MoM and was up 1.3% YoY. Total molybdenum concentrate output from January to September 2025 decreased by 2.6% YoY.

By province, domestic mine output in September saw some recovery influenced by production resumptions and output increases at certain mines. A mine in Inner Mongolia announced production resumption at the beginning of the month, releasing some output, while expanded capacity at a mine in Jilin earlier also stabilized into steady production, leading to increased output. Mines in Henan mainly maintained stable production, with one mine still undergoing technological transformation and having no shipments during the month. Major producing regions such as Shaanxi and Liaoning maintained stable output.

Entering October, technological transformation at a mine in Henan has not yet been completed, and some domestic mines still have maintenance plans for October. Domestic molybdenum concentrate output in October is expected to see limited growth, with subsequent focus on mine operating rates and shipment conditions.

Ferromolybdenum

According to SMM data, China's ferromolybdenum production in September 2025 decreased by 5.25% MoM and fell by 0.9% YoY. Total ferromolybdenum output from January to September 2025 increased by 9% YoY.

Domestic molybdenum concentrate prices fluctuated at highs in September. The average monthly price for SMM 45% molybdenum concentrate in September was 4,503 yuan/mtu, translating to an industry cost for ferromolybdenum of approximately 288,000 yuan/mt. The average monthly price for SMM ferromolybdenum in September was 285,300 yuan/mt, resulting in an average industry loss of 2,700 yuan/mt and significant cost pressure for enterprises, leading to poor production motivation. Additionally, the molybdenum price correction in mid-to-late September triggered bearish market sentiment, and traders offloading goods intensified downward price pressure. Smelters chose to reduce operating rates to minimize inventory buildup, with operating rates at small and medium-sized smelters in Liaoning and Hebei even falling below 40%.

Entering October, most domestic ferromolybdenum plants are fulfilling previous orders, while the total ferromolybdenum tender volume in September had already reached about 14,000 mt, pre-empting expectations for order growth in October. Coupled with molybdenum concentrate prices fluctuating at highs and low raw material inventory in the industry, if molybdenum concentrate prices do not retreat significantly after the holiday, enterprises will still face inverted profit risks, and some may choose to halt production to avoid risks. Industry output is unlikely to see significant growth expectations, and subsequent attention remains on changes in molybdenum concentrate prices.

Ammonium Paratungstate (APT)

According to SMM data, China's ammonium paratungstate (APT) production in September 2025 remained stable MoM but decreased by approximately 12% YoY, continuing the industry's trend of output reduction. In terms of industry operations, APT production in September remained characterized by "production constrained by raw materials and passive acceptance from the demand side." Although expectations for the September-October peak season drove an increase in end-user inquiries, tight ore supply and high costs continued to dominate production decisions, with the overall industry operating rate maintained in the range of 65%-70%.

Some APT enterprises that initiated maintenance in August due to cost pressures did not fully resume full-capacity operations in September. First, although APT prices rose in tandem with raw material costs, raw material procurement costs account for over 85% of total costs, and ore prices increased faster than product prices, further compressing enterprise processing margins and reducing motivation for production expansion. Second, although some enterprises in Jiangxi that underwent maintenance earlier gradually resumed production in mid-to-late September, the pace of resumption was slow, with daily average production per plant recovering to only 70% of pre-maintenance levels. Additionally, 2-3 small enterprises chose to extend maintenance into October due to financial pressures or raw material shortages, resulting in a weaker-than-expected recovery in production. Entering October, the tight supply of domestic tungsten concentrate is unlikely to see fundamental improvement, as domestic tungsten mining quotas have yet to be announced, leaving industry concerns about future raw material supply. APT enterprises will continue to face difficulties in restocking raw materials and high cost pressures. Furthermore, many end-user hard alloy enterprises stockpiled ahead of the National Day holiday, leading to partial digestion of backend orders in the market. New orders in October are expected to decline, making it difficult to support significant production increases by APT enterprises.

Silver

China's silver production in September 2025 decreased by approximately 0.8% MoM compared to August, as planned autumn maintenance at lead smelters in Inner Mongolia and Henan, and maintenance at copper smelters in Anhui and Inner Mongolia proceeded as scheduled, leading to a decline in precious metals production. Additionally, smelters in Hunan, Zhejiang, Henan, and other regions experienced slight fluctuations and declines in output, with some manufacturers attributing the decrease to tightening supply of silver-bearing raw materials. On the production increase side, a lead smelter in Henan saw a slight output boost after the arrival of imported silver-lead ore, while smelters in Yunnan and Shandong resumed production to normal levels after maintenance. Entering October, on the reduction side, maintenance plans at lead-zinc smelters in Qinghai and a certain area of Jiangxi are expected to impact precious and rare metals production plans, although the maintenance schedule for precious metals has not yet been finalized. Incremental production is mainly expected from the resumption of operations at copper smelters and lead-zinc smelters that underwent maintenance in September. Additionally, an expansion project at a precious and rare metals recycling smelter in Hunan is expected to contribute slightly higher output. SMM anticipates that refined silver production in October may increase by about 3.1% MoM.

Silver Nitrate

Silver nitrate production in September 2025 fell 6.9% MoM, as some enterprises cut production due to early holiday closures for the National Day holiday. Additionally, amid rising silver prices in mid-to-late September, silver nitrate producers faced higher capital costs for raw material procurement, with some proactively reducing output by rejecting low-margin orders to avoid purchasing expensive raw materials. Entering October, many silver nitrate producers across regions mentioned shutdown plans lasting 6 to 8 days and indicated that orders originally scheduled for holiday delivery had been either advanced or postponed. With insufficient post-holiday orders to support production recovery expectations, SMM estimates that silver nitrate output in October will continue to decline by approximately 100-150 mt due to fewer operating days.

Antimony Ingot

According to SMM assessments, China's antimony ingot production (including antimony ingot, converted crude antimony, antimony cathode, etc.) in September 2025 decreased by approximately 8.84% MoM compared to the previous month. In detail, among the 33 surveyed producers tracked by SMM, 15 were idled (up by 2 MoM), 17 reduced output (down by 1 MoM), and 1 maintained normal production levels (down by 1 MoM). Regarding antimony ingot output, after rebounding to over 4,000 mt in August, production fell back below 4,000 mt in September. Many market participants view this as normal, given the ongoing relative tightness of raw materials, which has left numerous producers unable to operate at full capacity. Output around 4,000 mt remains significantly below normal production levels. Due to price inversions, imported ore continues to face barriers to large-scale entry into the domestic market. Market sources indicate that national antimony ingot production in October 2025 is unlikely to change significantly from September, with possibilities of either stabilizing or experiencing a slight further decline.

Note: Since May 2022, SMM has been publishing its assessed national antimony ingot production (including antimony ingot, converted crude antimony, antimony cathode, etc.). Benefiting from SMM's high coverage rate of the antimony industry, the survey covers 33 antimony ingot producers across 8 provinces in China, with a total sample capacity exceeding 20,000 mt and a capacity coverage rate of over 99%.

Sodium Pyroantimonate

According to SMM assessments, China's production of first-grade sodium pyroantimonate in September 2025 surged approximately 11% MoM. After experiencing significant fluctuations for several consecutive months and two consecutive months of pullbacks in July and August, output rebounded sharply in September. This led many market participants to note that the traditional demand growth of the September-October peak season arrived as expected following the summer demand off-season. Although the increase was not substantial, the improvement at the end of Q3 was viewed positively. Detailed data shows that among the 13 surveyed producers tracked by SMM, 2 were idled or in commissioning, 5 increased production to some extent, and 1 saw a decline in output in September. Consequently, China's production of first-grade sodium pyroantimonate increased overall in September. Market participants expect that national sodium pyroantimonate output in October is unlikely to decline compared to September. As October arrives and the market continues to move out of the off-season, output is more likely to remain flat or increase slightly.

Note: Starting from July 2023, SMM has been publishing the SMM national sodium pyroantimonate assessed production. Benefiting from SMM's high coverage rate in the antimony industry, the SMM survey covers a total of 13 sodium pyroantimonate producers, distributed across 6 provinces in China, with a total sample capacity exceeding 86,000 mt and a total capacity coverage rate as high as 99%.

Refined Bismuth

According to SMM assessment, China's refined bismuth production in September 2025 is estimated to decrease by about 14% MoM compared to August. In recent months, bismuth production has basically been on a downward trend. After the first rebound occurred in August, production decreased significantly again in September. Market participants indicated that the substantial fluctuations in bismuth prices over the past month also reflect the stalemate in market fundamentals. Although the 14% decrease in September production is not insignificant, it indicates that overall bismuth raw material supply remains tight, and maintaining production at a low level might become the norm. Looking at detailed data, among the 24 surveyed entities by SMM, 2 producers saw a significant production increase in September, while 5 producers experienced a significant decrease; production changes at the remaining producers were relatively small. Many market participants anticipate that the tight raw material situation for national bismuth producers will remain difficult to alleviate in October. Production is likely to continue being constrained, making it more probable that refined bismuth output will remain stable or experience a slight further decrease, while the possibility of another significant drop is relatively small.

Note: Starting from October 2022, SMM has been publishing the SMM national refined bismuth assessed production. Benefiting from SMM's high coverage rate in the bismuth industry, the SMM survey covers a total of 24 refined bismuth producers, distributed across 8 provinces in China, with a total sample capacity exceeding 50,000 mt and a total capacity coverage rate exceeding 99%.

Lithium Carbonate

In September 2025, domestic lithium carbonate monthly production continued to hit new highs, increasing by 2% MoM and surging 52% YoY. The main driver for the continued production growth still came from the spodumene side, with toll processing orders for non-integrated lithium chemical enterprises in full swing. Simultaneously, driven by sustained positive downstream demand, the overall industry supply capacity also improved correspondingly.

By raw material type: Spodumene, salt lake, and recycling all saw certain increments, while lepidolite continued to pull back.

Spodumene-derived lithium carbonate: Total production in September increased by 5% MoM. On one hand, good downstream demand performance stimulated some flexible production lines to switch to lithium carbonate production, contributing a certain increment. Other lithium chemical plants also saw some production increases driven by demand; on the other hand, non-integrated lithium chemical plants maintained high operating rates due to profit incentives from futures hedging, further driving production growth.

Lepidolite-derived lithium carbonate: Total production decreased 15% MoM. Previously, a leading mine in Jiangxi province suspended production due to mining permit issues, and its associated lithium chemical plant maintained minimal output in August through ore inventory and spot purchases. As ore inventories continue to be drawn down, coupled with limited large-scale circulation of domestic lepidolite ore, output continues to decline. Production at other lepidolite-derived lithium chemical enterprises remained relatively stable.

Salt lake-derived lithium carbonate: Total production increased 10% MoM. With new production lines ramping up, output from salt lake-derived lithium carbonate saw a significant increase, while other enterprises maintained stable production under favorable weather conditions.

Scrap-derived lithium carbonate: Total production in September increased 7% MoM, primarily benefiting from the continued positive demand for lithium carbonate, which boosted production enthusiasm among recycling enterprises, though the overall production scale remains limited.

Currently, the lithium carbonate market still faces uncertainty regarding mining policies in Jiangxi province. From a pessimistic perspective, if relevant mines face shutdowns, limited short-term production could be maintained using inventories. Furthermore, new production lines have commenced operation in both the spodumene and salt lake sectors, coupled with downstream demand entering the traditional peak season, leading to sustained positive market expectations. Total lithium carbonate production in October is expected to maintain growth potential, potentially exceeding the 90,000 mt mark. SMM will continue to closely monitor the specific implementation of mining policies in Jiangxi province.

Lithium Hydroxide

According to SMM data, domestic lithium hydroxide production in September increased significantly by 26% MoM, driven primarily by two factors: On the smelting side, enterprises that had undergone maintenance resumed production, and some companies flexibly adjusted output based on increased orders, leading to a slight increase in output. Additionally, the price spread between lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate turned negative, incentivizing some enterprises with flexible production lines to increase lithium hydroxide production, contributing partially to the overall output increase. Together, these factors pushed smelting-side production up 19% MoM from the previous month. On the causticisation side, production resumed at salt lake enterprises and some companies reported good orders, jointly contributing to a significant production increase.

Looking ahead to October, some new production lines on the smelting side are expected to continue ramping up slightly, while production schedules on the causticisation side remain relatively stable. Overall output is forecast to be flat MoM but down 12% YoY.

Cobalt Sulphate

In September 2025, SMM cobalt sulphate production increased 8.24% MoM and 17.6% YoY.

By raw material source, cobalt intermediate products accounted for approximately 59%, MHP for about 18%, and recycled materials for around 23%. Due to the extension of the DRC ban, cobalt intermediate product prices continued to rise, cobalt intermediate product raw material inventories at smelters gradually decreased, and recycled materials and MHP materials continued to substitute for cobalt intermediate products. However, recently MHP and recycled raw materials have also been relatively tight, with their price coefficients rising continuously, reducing enterprises' willingness to purchase these raw materials for production, thus the substitution effect has weakened somewhat.

Supply side, cobalt sulphate producers showed divergence. Small and medium-sized enterprises faced tight raw material inventories and maintained low operating rates. Large integrated enterprises had relatively sufficient raw material inventories, and with seasonal improvement in downstream orders, their production increased.

Demand side, orders for both ternary precursor and Co3O4 enterprises improved in September. Some enterprises with low raw material inventories continued purchasing in the market. Coupled with the new DRC policy announced on September 21, market concerns about future cobalt resource tightness increased, further boosting downstream stocking sentiment.

By October, cobalt sulphate prices are expected to rise, with profits continuing to recover. Production at small and medium-sized enterprises is expected to be maintained, while integrated cobalt sulphate enterprises with ternary precursor and Co3O4 operations, due to sustained favorable orders, are expected to see a slight increase in production. The October cobalt sulphate production schedule is forecast to increase by 3.60% MoM.

Co3O4

In September 2025, the LCO market showed steady growth, with production rising slightly, up 3% MoM and significantly up 55% YoY. This growth was primarily driven by continued robust demand from the end-use consumer electronics sector and active stockpiling by downstream players in preparation for the traditional peak season. Considering end-users' growing expectations of tighter raw material supply in 2026, LCO production in October is expected to continue its upward trend, with a projected MoM increase of around 2%. Current orders from downstream battery manufacturers are robust, and the overall industry operating rate remains high, reflecting optimistic demand expectations across the industry chain. In September 2025, Co3O4 production also increased significantly, up 9% MoM and 40% YoY. The main drivers for the production increase were higher production schedules from LCO cathode material enterprises and active efforts by downstream battery cell manufacturers to increase capacity utilization rates to meet consumer electronics peak season demand, thereby expanding procurement volume for Co3O4. Looking ahead to October, against the backdrop of further expanding end-user stockpiling demand, Co3O4 production is expected to maintain growth, with a projected MoM increase of around 2%. This trend indicates that the cobalt-based materials market maintains high vitality supported by the traditional peak season for consumer electronics.

Ternary Cathode Precursor

In September 2025, domestic ternary cathode precursor production continued its substantial growth trend, increasing by 12.28% MoM and 22.05% YoY. From the product series structure perspective, the market share of 6-series products further expanded, reaching 45.66%. Driven by robust demand in the domestic power market in recent months, the share of 6-series materials remained high. In contrast, the market shares of other series precursors were somewhat squeezed, with the 5-series accounting for 14.20%, the 8-series for 26.91%, and the 9-series for 10.71%. Currently, the domestic power market remains in the traditional peak season, with some car models performing well in sales. Furthermore, as some policy subsidies are expected to phase out next year, demand in Q4 of this year is still anticipated to remain at a favorable level. On the consumer market side, recent demand has been generally stable, and a certain increase is expected in October due to stockpiling for the "Double 11" shopping festival. Overall, market demand in October is projected to stay high. However, affected by the recent sharp rise in raw material prices such as nickel and cobalt, precursor producers will place greater emphasis on cost-effectiveness when taking orders. Meanwhile, raw material supply is currently tight, and some small producers in Q4 may see actual output fall short of demand due to material shortages. It is currently forecast that ternary cathode precursor production in October will increase slightly by 2.8% MoM and be up 16.2% YoY.

Ternary Cathode Material

In September 2025, domestic ternary cathode precursor production continued its substantial growth trend, increasing by 13.55% MoM and up 23.44% YoY. From the product series structure perspective, the market share of 6-series products further expanded, reaching 45.15%. Driven by robust demand in the domestic power market in recent months, the share of 6-series materials remained high. In contrast, the market shares of other series precursors were somewhat squeezed, with the 5-series accounting for 14.38%, the 8-series for 27.39%, and the 9-series for 10.59%. Currently, the domestic power market remains in the traditional peak season, with some car models performing well in sales. Furthermore, as some policy subsidies are expected to phase out next year, demand in Q4 of this year is still anticipated to remain at a favorable level. On the consumer market side, recent demand has been generally stable, and a certain increase is expected in October due to stockpiling for the "Double 11" shopping festival. Overall, market demand in October is projected to stay high. However, affected by the recent sharp rise in raw material prices such as nickel and cobalt, precursor producers will place greater emphasis on cost-effectiveness when taking orders. Meanwhile, raw material supply is currently tight, and some small producers in Q4 may see actual output fall short of demand due to material shortages. It is currently forecast that ternary cathode precursor production in October will increase slightly by 1.65% MoM and be up 16.2% YoY.

Iron Phosphate

In September, domestic iron phosphate production surged 17% MoM and was up 58% YoY. In September, iron phosphate supply saw a very significant increase compared to August, with monthly production exceeding 300,000 mt. Top-tier integrated LFP enterprises experienced a surge in orders, driving up demand for self-produced iron phosphate. Meanwhile, the lithium battery market entered its peak season in September, with downstream orders being transmitted through the chain. Iron phosphate enterprises saw a notable rise in orders and corresponding production schedules, and the market for externally purchased iron phosphate was relatively active. As a result, both self-produced and externally sold iron phosphate achieved breakthroughs in September. Some iron phosphate enterprises also resumed operation of previously idle production lines to cope with the order growth. Cost side, industrial-grade MAP remained at low price levels in September, while ferrous sulphate prices continued to rise due to supply constraints, keeping iron phosphate enterprises under significant pressure regarding iron sources. With changes in the supply-demand relationship in September, iron phosphate prices are expected to see a slight increase in October. Iron phosphate production in October is projected to increase by 6% MoM and 58% YoY.

LFP

In September, China's LFP material production increased by approximately 12.8% MoM and 42% YoY, with an industry operating rate of about 68%. Supply side, LFP enterprises showed high production enthusiasm this month. Overall downstream demand was robust, with production increases across material plants. Both power and ESS sectors had substantial orders, and some top-tier enterprises operated at full or even over capacity. Some companies continued to add new capacity, particularly as downstream battery cell manufacturers' demand for high-tap-density materials kept increasing, accelerating the expansion of new production lines. Demand side, downstream battery cell manufacturers experienced strong overall demand this month. Top-tier cell manufacturers saw significant demand growth driven by battery swapping networks for pure electric heavy-duty trucks, coupled with the boost from the traditional auto sales peak season, the September-October peak season. Demand from second and third-tier cell manufacturers also improved. Additionally, the ESS sector performed excellently this month. According to the latest survey results, no ESS battery cell manufacturers have shown a trend of reduction, indicating high industry prosperity. Looking ahead to October, power battery cell demand is still expected to benefit from continued growth driven by the September-October peak season, and the ESS market will maintain high levels. The industry as a whole is expected to maintain a high growth momentum, with an anticipated growth rate of over 5%.

LCO

In September 2025, the LCO market showed steady growth, with a slight increase in monthly production, up 3% MoM and significantly up 55% YoY. This growth was mainly driven by sustained demand from the end-use consumer electronics sector and active stockpiling by downstream players in preparation for the traditional peak season. Considering the growing expectation among end-users for tighter raw material supply in 2026, LCO production in October is expected to continue its upward trend, with a projected MoM increase of around 2%. Currently, downstream battery enterprises are experiencing robust orders, and the overall industry operating rate remains high, reflecting optimistic expectations for future demand across the industry chain.

LMO

In September 2025, LMO production increased slightly MoM. Raw material side, lithium carbonate prices fluctuated moderately during the month, easing the previous wait-and-see sentiment among LMO producers. Market quotations mostly adjusted dynamically with lithium carbonate prices, while product shipment pace and production progress remained stable. Demand side, following a significant price increase earlier, battery cell producers, concerned about further price rises, engaged in advance stockpiling. Coupled with the arrival of the traditional September-October peak season, orders at battery cell manufacturers showed an upward trend, market trading atmosphere gradually recovered, and LMO producers slightly raised their production schedules, thereby pushing up market supply in September.

Looking ahead to October 2025, LMO market activity is expected to improve further, with market inquiries likely to show steady growth. This trend will further stimulate producers' enthusiasm. Driven by this factor, LMO supply in October 2025 is projected to achieve MoM growth, with the YoY growth rate also continuing to expand.

*Survey Methodology

The SMM production survey is conducted by professional analysts who track Chinese metal producers monthly via phone and field surveys, issuing China Metal Production Reports based on this data.

The survey ensures a fundamental coverage ratio of samples and continuously expands it. Meanwhile, it considers details such as capacity scale, geographical distribution, and enterprise nature to rationally select and allocate samples, ensuring the representativeness of all sub-item data.

The data is released monthly through official channels including the SMM official website (www.smm.cn), the WeChat subscription account (Today's Nonferrous Metals), and the mobile site (m.smm.cn) by month-end.

Data Source Statement: Except for public information, other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, for reference only and not constituting decision-making advice.