National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) Interpretation: Manufacturing PMI Continued to Rebound in September, China's Overall Economic Output Expansion Slightly Accelerated

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed that in September, the manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating continued improvement in the manufacturing sector's prosperity level. According to a September 30 release from the NBS, the composite PMI output index for September was 50.6%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, remaining above the threshold, which indicates that the overall expansion of production and business activities of enterprises in China continued to accelerate. Huo Lihui, Chief Statistician of the NBS Service Industry Survey Center, interpreted China's Purchasing Managers' Index for September 2025.

Manufacturing PMI Continued to Rebound in September

—Huo Lihui, Chief Statistician of the NBS Service Industry Survey Center, Interprets China's Purchasing Managers' Index for September 2025

On September 30, 2025, the NBS Service Industry Survey Center and the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing released China's Purchasing Managers' Index. Huo Lihui, Chief Statistician of the NBS Service Industry Survey Center, provided an interpretation.

In September, the manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month; the non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.0%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month; the composite PMI output index was 50.6%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slight acceleration in the overall economic output expansion in China.

I. Manufacturing PMI Continued to Rebound

In September, manufacturing production activities accelerated, with the PMI rising to 49.8%, indicating continued improvement in the prosperity level.

(I) Enterprise Production Expansion Accelerated. The production index was 51.9%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, reaching a near six-month high, indicating relatively active manufacturing production activities; the new orders index was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting some improvement in market demand prosperity. By sector, the production index and new orders index for industries such as food and refined tea & alcoholic beverages, automobiles, and railway, ship, aerospace equipment all exceeded 54.0%, indicating rapid release of production and demand; for industries such as wood processing & furniture, petroleum, coal and other fuel processing, and non-metallic mineral products, both indices were below the threshold. Driven by the rebound in manufacturing production, enterprises accelerated raw material procurement, with the purchasing volume index rising to 51.6%.

(II) PMI for Small Enterprises Rebounded. The PMI for large enterprises was 51.0%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, remaining above the threshold and maintaining a steady expansion trend; the PMI for medium-sized enterprises was 48.8%, slightly down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, with the prosperity level basically stable; the PMI for small enterprises was 48.2%, up 1.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating some improvement in the prosperity level.

3. Key industries expand rapidly. The PMI for equipment manufacturing, high-tech manufacturing, and consumer goods industry were 51.9%, 51.6%, and 50.6% respectively, all significantly higher than the overall manufacturing sector. Meanwhile, the production index and new orders index of these key industries were in the expansion territory, indicating active supply and demand activities at both ends; the PMI for high energy-consuming industries was 47.5%, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points from the previous month.

4. Market expectations continue to improve. The business activity expectation index was 54.1%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, marking three consecutive months of rebound, suggesting that manufacturing enterprises have a positive outlook on recent market development. By industry, the business activity expectation indices for agricultural and sideline food processing, automobile, railway ship aerospace equipment, and other sectors were all above 57.0%, indicating strong confidence in industry development among relevant enterprises.

II. Non-manufacturing Business Activity Index at the threshold

In September, the non-manufacturing business activity index stood at 50.0%, a decline of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, placing it at the threshold, with the total volume of non-manufacturing business remaining stable overall.

1. Service sector business activity index remains in expansion. The service sector business activity index was 50.1%, continuing to stay in the expansion territory. By industry, the business activity indices for postal services, telecommunications, radio and television, and satellite transmission services, as well as monetary financial services, were all above 60.0%, maintaining rapid growth in the total volume of business. At the same time, due to the waning of the summer effect, the business activity indices for catering, culture, sports, and entertainment, which are closely related to residents' travel and consumption, fell below the threshold. In terms of market expectations, the business activity expectation index was 56.3%, having remained above 55.0% since the beginning of the year, indicating a stable and optimistic outlook for the development of the service sector by service enterprises.

2. Construction sector business activity index slightly rebounds. The construction sector business activity index was 49.3%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, showing a slight improvement in the level of prosperity in the construction sector. In terms of market expectations, the business activity expectation index was 52.4%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, indicating improved confidence in recent market development among construction enterprises.

III. Composite PMI Output Index maintains expansion

In September, the composite PMI output index was 50.6%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that China's enterprise production and business activities continued to accelerate in their overall expansion. The manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index, which make up the composite PMI output index, were 51.9% and 50.0% respectively.