[SMM Nickel Midday Review] Nickel prices dropped slightly on September 29, as the MIIT and seven other departments issued the "Work Plan for Stabilizing Growth in the Nonferrous Metals Industry (2025–2026)".

SMM Nickel September 29 News:

Macro and Market News:

(1) Eight departments, including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, issued the "Work Plan for Stabilizing Growth in the Nonferrous Metals Industry (2025-2026)". It mentioned that from 2025 to 2026, the value-added of the nonferrous metals industry is expected to achieve an average annual growth of around 5%, economic benefits are expected to maintain a positive trend, and the output of ten nonferrous metals is expected to achieve an average annual growth of about 1.5%.

(2) The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released the profit data for industrial enterprises above the designated size nationwide for the period from January to August. The data showed that in August, profits of industrial enterprises above the designated size showed double-digit growth, turning from a 1.5% decline in July to a 20.4% increase. The monthly profits of industrial enterprises improved significantly. Looking at the three major categories, from January to August, profits of manufacturing industrial enterprises above the designated size grew by 7.4%, accelerating by 2.6 percentage points compared to the period from January to July; profits of industrial enterprises above the designated size in the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water grew by 9.4%, accelerating by 5.5 percentage points; profits of mining industrial enterprises above the designated size fell by 30.6%, with the decline narrowing by 1.0 percentage points.

Spot Market:

On September 29, the SMM #1 refined nickel price ranged from 120,700 to 123,300 yuan/mt, with an average price of 122,000 yuan/mt, down 450 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 2,200-2,400 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 2,300 yuan/mt, down 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The spot premiums and discounts quotation range for mainstream domestic brands of electrodeposited nickel was -150 to 200 yuan/mt.

Futures Market:

The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2511) was in the doldrums during the night session, closing slightly lower by the end of the session. The most-traded contract 2511 last closed at 120,790 yuan/mt, down 1,050 yuan/mt (a decrease of 0.86%). After the market opened on the 29th, the futures maintained a weak trend; as of the close of the morning session, it was quoted at 120,990 yuan/mt, down 0.7%.

Approaching the Chinese National Day holiday, overall market trading willingness declined, and pre-holiday risk-averse sentiment was strong. Nickel prices are expected to remain in the doldrums, with the reference range for the most-traded SHFE nickel contract at 120,000-124,000 yuan/mt. During the long holiday, close attention should be paid to overseas macro data and policy developments, which may impact nickel prices after the holiday.