Weekly SMM Secondary Refined Lead Market Review: Spot Orders for Secondary Refined Lead Show Significant Price Variations, Smelting Profits Fluctuate Near the Break-Even Point

SMM September 26:

Spot secondary refined lead offers varied significantly during the week. Ex-factory prices in the north China region were at a discount of 100-0 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, with some even at a premium of 25-50 yuan/mt. In contrast, ex-factory prices in the southwest and south China regions were at a discount of 250-100 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, and transactions remained under pressure. On one hand, smelter shutdowns were more common in the northern market, leading to tight supply of refined lead. On the other hand, production resumptions and output increases were more widespread in the southern regions (e.g., Guizhou, Guangzhou, Jiangxi). Additionally, typhoon weather in Guangzhou increased the number of holidays for downstream battery producers, weakening their demand for lead ingot procurement.

Currently, scrap battery prices have not risen significantly, keeping smelters' raw material costs relatively stable. As of September 26, 2025, the theoretical comprehensive break-even value for large-scale secondary lead enterprises was -45 yuan/mt, while for small and medium-sized enterprises it was -258 yuan/mt (by-product revenues for tin and antimony are not included in the model). Secondary lead smelting profits are fluctuating near the break-even line, with some smelters already achieving stable profits due to their capability to extract valuable metals like antimony and tin. Post-holiday, secondary lead smelters have plans for concentrated production resumptions. However, the accumulation of lead ingot inventory during the holiday and post-holiday downstream consumption performance are crucial to lead price trends. SMM believes that if lead prices weaken under pressure after the holiday, and concentrated production resumptions by secondary lead smelters boost scrap battery prices, the profitability of secondary lead smelting may quickly disappear.

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