The Wave of PV Module Retirements Approaches, Presenting Opportunities and Challenges for the Recycling Industry

Rapid Expansion in Installed Capacity, Impending Peak in Decommissioning

Photovoltaics (PV), which directly convert solar energy into electricity using the photovoltaic effect, have become a "national calling card" in China's energy sector. By the end of 2023, China's cumulative installed grid-connected PV capacity had reached 608.91 GW, accounting for 43.5% of the global total. It is projected that by 2025, China will experience its first peak in PV module decommissioning, with the volume expected to reach 1.05 million mt; by 2050, the global decommissioning volume is estimated to be as high as approximately 20 million mt, with China's share expected to account for a quarter. Notably, although the theoretical lifespan of PV modules is 25-30 years, their actual service life is often around 10-15 years due to factors such as natural disasters, declining power generation efficiency, and technological iteration, which further accelerates the decommissioning rate.

Waste Modules: Dual Attributes of Resource and Pollution

Decommissioned PV modules possess both resource value and pollution potential. Taking common crystalline silicon modules as an example, the majority of their weight (≥93%) comes from glass, aluminum frames, and encapsulant material EVA. In terms of economic value, silver has the highest value proportion (approximately 44%), followed by aluminum frames (30.4%) and polysilicon (9.5%), indicating significant recycling potential. However, if not handled properly, substances like lead and tin present in small amounts within the modules can pose potential environmental risks.

Continuous Improvement in Policies and Regulations, Gradual Clarification of Management Pathways

In terms of environmental management, China's policies are becoming progressively more detailed. Effective January 1, 2024, waste PV modules have been included in the "Solid Waste Classification and Code Catalog" under the category SW17 (recyclable waste) for management, distinguishing them from the earlier approach of referencing electronic waste management. Multiple national ministries and commissions have intensively issued policies. The "Guiding Opinions on Promoting the Recycling of Decommissioned Wind Power and PV Equipment" outlines six key tasks, including promoting green design, clarifying responsible entities for treatment (implementing an extended producer responsibility system), facilitating smooth recycling channels, enhancing recycling technologies, steadily advancing remanufacturing, and strengthening supervision of harmless disposal.

Ongoing Efforts in Recycling Technology, Challenges Remain on the Path to Industrialisation

Currently, the resource utilization of waste PV modules technically focuses primarily on the separation of multi-layer, tightly bonded structural materials and elemental recycling. The core challenge lies in efficiently and cost-effectively separating valuable materials such as silver, silicon, glass, and aluminum. Existing technological pathways include physical disassembly (e.g., separating aluminum frames and junction boxes), thermal methods (separation of laminated materials), and hydrometallurgy (extraction of valuable metals). The research team is committed to developing a full-chain technology ranging from material cascade utilization (such as the regeneration of aluminum alloy frames and welding strips) to element recycling (such as the direct regeneration of silver paste).

However, the industry still faces numerous challenges: the current planned recycling capacity may not match the actual future scale of decommissioning, market access standards have yet to be unified, mature commercial processes and equipment remain insufficient, and controlling secondary pollution and costs during the recycling process are key difficulties. Additionally, the scope of cascade utilization (downgraded use) of modules and the definition of safety responsibilities need further clarification.

Conclusion

In the face of the impending wave of PV module decommissioning, the recycling market holds great potential, but the profit model remains unclear, and technological routes are still under exploration. Driven by strong national policies, there is an urgent need to deepen the integration of "industry, academia, and research," proactively lay out core technology R&D and standard system construction, to address the challenges of this emerging category of solid waste and transform it into a new opportunity for promoting green, low-carbon, and circular development.