LME Tin Prices Fluctuate Lower as Hawkish Macro Expectations and Weak Supply-Demand Dynamics Dominate the Market [SMM Tin Midday Review]

On the midday of September 18, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin 2510 contract closed at 269,690 yuan/mt, down 3,400 yuan, or 1.25%, from the previous trading day. The price remained in the doldrums during the session, with the intraday low touching 269,670 yuan/mt. Market sentiment was cautious, with both trading volume and open interest contracting. From a macro perspective, the US Fed announced a 25-basis-point interest rate cut as expected in the early hours of the day, but Chairman Powell explicitly stated that this cut was merely "risk management" and not the beginning of an easing cycle. This hawkish stance sharply reduced market expectations for consecutive rate cuts, putting broad pressure on risk assets. A stronger US dollar index weighed on dollar-denominated commodities, and LME tin edged lower in electronic trading. LME tin was quoted at $34,250/mt, down $140, or 0.41%, with intraday fluctuations narrowing to within $300, reflecting fading optimism among international investors about short-term liquidity improvements.

In the short term, SHFE tin prices are under dual pressure from macro sentiment and weak fundamentals. If the US dollar index continues to strengthen and downstream restocking demand shows no improvement, prices may further test the support level of 268,000 yuan/mt. For LME tin, the effectiveness of the $34,000/mt threshold needs attention. The pace of production resumptions in Myanmar and the recovery rhythm of the semiconductor industry will be key variables for directional choices ahead.