Prebaked Anode Prices Rose in September, Supported by Rising Petroleum Coke Costs with Strong Momentum for Continued Increases [SMM Analysis]

SMM September 14 News:

SMM prebaked anode prices rose as expected in September. The procurement base price for a certain aluminum smelter in Shandong was set at 4,832 yuan/mt for September 2025, up 1.96% MoM. According to SMM, prebaked anode export order prices mainly increased in September, with adjustments concentrated in the range of $10-25/mt. As of now, SMM anode prices in east China closed at 4,832-8,017 yuan/mt.

The price increase was primarily supported by rising costs of raw materials, petroleum coke and coal tar pitch. Entering September, the petroleum coke market remained relatively stable, with prices from major refineries continuing to rise. Local refineries saw smooth sales, and prices fluctuated upward. SMM expects petroleum coke prices to mainly fluctuate with an upward trend within the month. In the coal tar pitch market, the current price of its raw material, high-temperature coal tar, has partially hit bottom, leaving limited room for further significant declines. There is an expectation for prices to stop falling and rebound. Coupled with a slight increase in stockpiling demand from downstream enterprises, SMM anticipates coal tar pitch prices will mainly consolidate within a range. Overall, cost-side support for prebaked anode remains relatively solid.

Supply side, prebaked anode enterprises produce according to orders. In August 2025, some prebaked anode enterprises were affected by environmental protection-related controls, particularly in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei, leading to production constraints and output declines at several enterprises. Entering September, with the easing of these controls, enterprises facing restrictions gradually resumed production. Prebaked anode supply is expected to increase. Demand side, domestic operating aluminum capacity continues to remain high. The second batch of replacement projects in Yunnan has completed commissioning and achieved stable output. Resumptions of production at aluminum enterprises in south-west China further drove the industry's operating rate higher. Entering September 2025, as replacement projects gradually start pots and commence production, domestic operating aluminum capacity is expected to see a slight increase again. Output from earlier pot-starting projects is gradually being realized, leading to growth in the daily average production of aluminum ingots. Domestic demand for prebaked anode performs well. Regarding export orders, prebaked anode export orders overall performed well in 2025. This is mainly attributed to the continuous release of new aluminum capacity in the overseas market, combined with the gradual recovery of capacity at some enterprises, driving growth in overseas demand for prebaked anode. Export data from H1 2025 shows exports have increased compared to the same period last year. According to customs statistics compiled by SMM, China's cumulative prebaked anode export volume reached 1.23 million mt as of now in 2025, up 2.45% YoY. SMM has learned that negotiations for 2026 export orders have already begun. Based on current negotiation dynamics, the total export volume for 2026 is expected to grow, with demand from South and Southeast Asian markets becoming the primary source of this growth. Overall, supported by dual demand from domestic and overseas markets, the prebaked anode market demonstrates strong growth resilience in 2025 and 2026.

Brief Comment: An aluminum enterprise in Shandong adjusted the benchmark price for its prebaked anode tender for September 2025, up 93 yuan/mt MoM. Meanwhile, a major domestic prebaked anode sales company raised its sales price, up 94 yuan/mt MoM. The raw material market for prebaked anodes is currently diverging, but the price of the main raw material, petroleum coke, remains on an upward trend, driving up overall costs and providing some support for prebaked anode prices. Supported by the raw material market, prebaked anode prices are expected to have further room for increase.