[SMM Nickel Midday Review] Nickel prices continued to decline on September 10, while China's CPI dropped 0.4% YoY in August.

SMM Nickel Market Update on September 10:

Macro News:

(1) Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed that China's CPI fell 0.4% YoY in August 2025. The PPI dropped 2.9% YoY, with the decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, while turning flat MoM from a 0.2% decline in July.

(2) On September 8, Indonesian President Prabowo conducted his second cabinet reshuffle since taking office, involving multiple key ministries. The reshuffle included adjustments to five ministerial positions: Coordinating Minister for Political, Legal, and Security Affairs Budi Gunawan, Finance Minister Sri Mulyani, Minister of Manpower Protection Abdul Kadir Kardirng, Minister of Cooperatives Budi Arie Setiadi, and Minister of Youth and Sports Dito Ariotedjo.

Spot Market:

On September 10, SMM #1 refined nickel prices stood at 120,300-122,800 yuan/mt, with the average price at 121,550 yuan/mt, down 350 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premiums for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel were quoted at 2,100-2,300 yuan/mt, averaging 2,200 yuan/mt, unchanged from the prior session. Spot premiums/discounts for domestic mainstream electrodeposited nickel brands ranged between -100-200 yuan/mt.

Futures Market:

The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2510) opened lower during the night session and weakened further, closing at 120,400 yuan/mt, down 540 yuan/mt (0.45%). On the morning of the 10th, it remained in the doldrums, settling at 120,610 yuan/mt by midday, a 0.27% decline.

The US dollar index staged a technical rebound after consecutive declines, with market focus now on upcoming US PPI and CPI data, which are expected to provide clearer guidance for the US Fed's policy path. Investors remained cautious ahead of these key releases. LME nickel inventories continued accumulating, reaching 218,070 mt on September 9, up 456 mt from the previous session. High inventories remain the most direct factor suppressing nickel prices. The short-term price range for SHFE nickel is projected at 121,000-125,000 yuan/mt.