National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): August CPI Fell 0.4% YoY, Core CPI Continued to Rebound, PPI YoY Decline Narrowed

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), China's consumer price index (CPI) fell 0.4% YoY in August 2025. Specifically, urban areas saw a 0.3% decline while rural areas dropped 0.6%. Food prices decreased 4.3%, while non-food prices rose 0.5%. Consumer goods prices fell 1.0%, whereas service prices increased 0.6%. From January to August, the average CPI declined 0.1% compared with the same period last year. In August, the CPI remained flat MoM. Urban areas showed no change, while rural areas edged up 0.1%. Food prices rose 0.5%, while non-food prices dipped 0.1%. Consumer goods prices increased 0.1%, with service prices remaining stable. NBS data also showed that the producer price index (PPI) for industrial products fell 2.9% YoY in August, narrowing by 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, and turned flat MoM after a 0.2% decline in July. Purchase prices for industrial producers dropped 4.0% YoY and were flat MoM. From January to August, the average PPI declined 2.9% YoY, while purchase prices fell 3.3%.

China's CPI Fell 0.4% YoY and Remained Flat MoM in August 2025

In August 2025, China's CPI decreased 0.4% YoY. Urban areas dropped 0.3%, while rural areas fell 0.6%. Food prices declined 4.3%, whereas non-food prices rose 0.5%. Consumer goods prices decreased 1.0%, while service prices increased 0.6%. From January to August, the average CPI declined 0.1% compared with the same period last year.

In August, the CPI remained flat MoM. Urban areas showed no change, while rural areas edged up 0.1%. Food prices rose 0.5%, while non-food prices dipped 0.1%. Consumer goods prices increased 0.1%, with service prices remaining stable.

I. YoY Price Changes of Goods and Services

In August, prices for food, tobacco, and alcohol fell 2.5% YoY, dragging down the CPI by approximately 0.72 percentage points. Within the food category, fresh vegetable prices dropped 15.2%, contributing to a 0.37 percentage point CPI decline; egg prices fell 12.4%, reducing CPI by 0.08 percentage points; livestock meat prices decreased 8.0%, pulling CPI down by 0.25 percentage points (with pork prices down 16.1%, affecting CPI by 0.24 percentage points); fresh fruit prices declined 3.7%, lowering CPI by 0.08 percentage points; grain prices dropped 0.8%, trimming CPI by 0.01 percentage points; while aquatic product prices rose 2.2%, pushing CPI up by 0.04 percentage points.

Among the other seven major categories, six saw YoY price increases while one declined. Specifically, prices for other goods and services, clothing, and household goods and services rose by 8.6%, 1.8%, and 1.8%, respectively; education, culture, and entertainment, healthcare, and housing increased by 1.0%, 0.9%, and 0.1%, respectively. Transportation and communication prices fell by 2.4%.

II. MoM Price Changes of Various Goods and Services

In August, prices for food, tobacco, and alcohol rose by 0.3% MoM, contributing approximately 0.09 percentage points to the CPI increase. Within the food category, fresh vegetable prices rose by 8.5%, contributing about 0.16 percentage points; egg prices increased by 1.5%, contributing about 0.01 percentage points; fresh fruit prices fell by 2.8%, dragging down CPI by about 0.06 percentage points; aquatic product prices declined by 0.9%, reducing CPI by about 0.02 percentage points; pork prices dropped by 0.5%, lowering CPI by about 0.01 percentage points.

Among the other seven major categories, one saw MoM price increases, two remained flat, and four declined. Specifically, healthcare prices rose by 0.3%; housing and other goods and services prices were unchanged; transportation and communication prices fell by 0.3%, while clothing, household goods and services, and education, culture, and entertainment prices each declined by 0.1%.

Narrower YoY Decline and MoM Shift to Flat in Industrial Producer Ex-Factory Prices in August 2025

In August 2025, the ex-factory prices of industrial producers nationwide fell by 2.9% YoY, with the decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, while MoM prices shifted from a 0.2% drop to flat. Purchasing prices of industrial producers dropped by 4.0% YoY and remained flat MoM. On average from January to August, ex-factory prices of industrial producers fell by 2.9% compared with the same period last year, while purchasing prices declined by 3.3%.

I. YoY Changes in Industrial Producer Prices

In August, within ex-factory prices of industrial producers, prices of production materials fell by 3.2%, dragging down the overall ex-factory price level by approximately 2.4 percentage points. Among these, mining industry prices dropped by 11.5%, raw material industry prices declined by 4.1%, and processing industry prices fell by 2.2%. Prices of consumer goods decreased by 1.7%, reducing the overall ex-factory price level by about 0.45 percentage points. Specifically, food prices fell by 1.7%, clothing prices were flat, general daily necessities prices rose by 0.4%, and durable consumer goods prices dropped by 3.7%.

Among purchasing prices of industrial producers, fuel and power prices fell by 9.7%, chemical raw material prices declined by 6.2%, ferrous metals and agricultural by-product prices both dropped by 5.6%, building materials and non-metallic prices decreased by 4.7%, and textile raw material prices fell by 2.0%, while non-ferrous metals and wire prices rose by 4.7%.

II. MoM Changes in Industrial Producer Prices

In August, ex-factory prices of means of production rose 0.1%, driving the overall ex-factory price level up by approximately 0.08 percentage points. Specifically, prices in mining and extraction industries increased 1.3%, while raw material industry prices rose 0.2%, and processing industry prices remained flat. Prices of consumer goods fell 0.1%, dragging down the overall ex-factory price level by about 0.03 percentage points. Within this category, food prices rose 0.1%, clothing prices were unchanged, general daily necessities declined 0.2%, and durable consumer goods dropped 0.3%.

Among industrial producer purchase prices, building materials and non-metallic products fell 1.4%, while chemical raw materials and agricultural by-products both declined 0.4%. Fuel and power prices rose 0.7%, ferrous metals increased 0.6%, with non-ferrous metals/wires and textile materials both edging up 0.1%.

Core CPI Continued Rebound in August 2025 as PPI YoY Decline Narrowed

—NBS Chief Statistician Dong Lijuan's Interpretation of August 2025 CPI and PPI Data

In August, the consumer market operated steadily overall. The CPI remained flat MoM but fell 0.4% YoY, while core CPI (excluding food and energy) rose 0.9% YoY, marking the fourth consecutive month of expanding growth. With continued optimization of domestic market competition and improved supply-demand relationships in some sectors, the PPI shifted from a 0.2% MoM decline in July to flat MoM performance. The YoY decline narrowed by 0.7 percentage points to 2.9%.

I. Core CPI Sustained Recovery

The YoY CPI shift from flat to negative was primarily due to higher base effects from the same period last year combined with below-seasonal food price increases this month. The carryover effect from last year's price changes contributed approximately -0.9 percentage points to the YoY CPI, with its downward pressure expanding 0.4 percentage points MoM. The new price increase factor showed CPI MoM performance at parity, 0.3 percentage points below seasonal norms. These dual factors jointly drove the YoY CPI downward. By category, food prices were particularly weak. Food prices rose 0.5% MoM but trailed seasonal patterns by about 1.1 percentage points, with pork, eggs, and fresh fruit prices all underperforming seasonal trends. YoY food prices fell 4.3%, accelerating the decline by 2.7 percentage points MoM, exerting 0.51 percentage points more downward pressure on YoY CPI than last month—exceeding the overall CPI YoY decline. Among them, the prices of pork, fresh vegetables, and eggs fell by 16.1%, 15.2%, and 14.2% YoY, respectively, with the declines widening by 6.6, 7.6, and 1.3 percentage points MoM. The price of fresh fruit shifted from a 2.8% YoY increase last month to a 3.7% YoY decline. These four items collectively dragged down the CPI by approximately 0.47 percentage points more than the previous month. Non-food prices rose by 0.5%, marking the third consecutive month of expanding growth, contributing to a 0.43 percentage point increase in the CPI YoY.

As policies to expand domestic demand and boost consumption continued to take effect, the core CPI YoY growth widened for the fourth consecutive month. This month, the core CPI excluding food and energy prices rose by 0.9% YoY, with the growth rate expanding by 0.1 percentage points MoM. Among them, the prices of industrial consumer goods excluding energy rose by 1.5% YoY, with the growth rate expanding by 0.3 percentage points MoM. Within industrial consumer goods, the prices of gold and platinum jewelry surged by 36.7% and 29.8% YoY, respectively, jointly contributing to a 0.22 percentage point increase in the CPI YoY. The YoY growth rates of household appliances and recreational durable goods prices expanded to 4.6% and 2.4%, respectively, jointly contributing to a 0.09 percentage point increase in the CPI YoY. The YoY decline in fuel-powered car prices narrowed further to 2.3%. The YoY growth in service prices has been gradually expanding since March, rising by 0.6% this month, with the growth rate expanding by 0.1 percentage points MoM, contributing to a 0.23 percentage point increase in the CPI YoY. Among them, the prices of domestic services and hairdressing rose by 2.3% and 1.0% YoY, respectively, with relatively stable growth rates. The prices of medical services and education services rose by 1.6% and 1.2% YoY, respectively, while the prices of vehicle rentals and tourism rose by 0.8% and 0.7% YoY, respectively, with all growth rates expanding.

II. PPI YoY Decline Narrowed

The PPI MoM change ended an eight-month consecutive decline, shifting from a 0.2% drop last month to flat this month. The main characteristics of this month's PPI MoM changes were: First, the improvement in the supply-demand relationship led to price rebounds in some energy and raw material industries. Coal processing prices shifted from a 4.7% drop last month to a 9.7% increase, coal mining and washing prices shifted from a 1.5% drop to a 2.8% increase, ferrous metals smelting and rolling prices shifted from a 0.3% drop to a 1.9% increase, glass manufacturing prices shifted from a 1.5% drop to a 0.1% increase, and power and heat production and supply prices shifted from a 0.9% drop to a 0.1% increase. Second, imported factors led to price pullbacks in domestic petroleum and some non-ferrous metal industries. International non-ferrous metal prices fluctuated at highs, while domestic non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling prices rose by 0.2%, with the growth rate pulling back by 0.6 percentage points MoM. Among them, gold smelting and aluminum smelting prices both rose by 0.2%, while copper smelting prices fell by 1.1%. The decline in international oil prices led to price drops of 1.4% and 0.6% in domestic petroleum extraction and refined petroleum product manufacturing, respectively.

The PPI fell 2.9% YoY, with the decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points MoM, marking the first narrowing since March this year. In addition to the lower base effect from the same period last year, China intensified the implementation of more proactive and effective macro policies, leading to positive price changes in some industries. First, the continuous optimization of domestic market competition order contributed to narrowing YoY declines in related industries. The construction of a unified national market advanced further, with unregulated competition among enterprises being addressed and capacity management in key industries carried out in an orderly manner, resulting in narrower YoY price declines. The YoY declines in coal processing, ferrous metals smelting and rolling, coal mining and washing, PV equipment and components manufacturing, and new energy vehicle manufacturing narrowed by 10.3, 6.0, 3.2, 2.8, and 0.6 percentage points MoM, respectively, reducing the downward drag on PPI YoY by approximately 0.5 percentage points MoM, which was the main reason for the narrowing of the PPI YoY decline. Second, the steady growth of new development momentum drove YoY price rebounds in related industries. Emerging industries flourished, technological and industrial innovation deepened, and green development improved in quality and efficiency, leading to YoY price increases in some sectors. Prices for integrated circuit packaging and testing rose 1.1%, ship and related equipment manufacturing increased 0.9%, communication system equipment manufacturing climbed 0.3%, and solid waste treatment equipment prices rose 0.3%. Prices for electronic specialty materials manufacturing and smart unmanned aerial vehicle manufacturing stabilized after falling 1.6% and 0.5% MoM, respectively, while the decline in waste resource comprehensive utilization narrowed by 5.4 percentage points. Third, increased demand for upgraded consumption boosted YoY price increases in certain industries. Prices for arts and crafts and ceremonial goods manufacturing rose 13.0%, sports ball manufacturing increased 4.7%, traditional Chinese musical instrument manufacturing climbed 1.6%, nutritional food manufacturing rose 0.9%, specialized sports equipment and accessories manufacturing increased 0.4%, and health food manufacturing prices rose 0.3%.

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