Nickel Prices and Supply-Demand Dynamics Drove Intermediate Product Prices Higher This Week

According to SMM data, nickel sulphate production in August 2025 is estimated to reach approximately 30,400 mt in metal content, corresponding to about 138,500 mt in physical content, up 4.80% MoM but down 4.19% YoY.

RKAB Approval Approaching to an End, NPI Prices Keep Rising

This week, nickel prices rebounded notably amid macro tailwinds fueled by rising expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts. The most-traded SHFE nickel NI2510 contract closed at 121,700 yuan/mt on Friday, up 1.75% WoW. LME nickel showed a more pronounced rebound, with its latest quote at $15,370/mt, up 2.6% WoW. Spot market-wise, the average SMM #1 refined nickel price this week stood at 122,000 yuan/mt, up 1,850 yuan/mt WoW. The average Jinchuan nickel premium averaged 2,400 yuan/mt this week, down 300 yuan/mt WoW, mainly due to weaker downstream acceptance amid higher futures prices, leading to a decline in premiums. The mainstream electrodeposited nickel premium range remained at -100-300 yuan/mt this week. Overall spot trading activity in August differed little from July, maintaining the weak off-season demand pattern.

The Nickel Intermediate Product Market Remains Tight With Overall Coefficient Strengthening

In August 2025, SMM's refined nickel production rose 7% MoM and 21% YoY, with cumulative growth reaching 26% YoY. The operating rate of domestic refined nickel producers stood at 66%. Top-tier enterprises saw higher operating rates, while other smelters maintained stable output, leading to an overall production increase.

[SMM Daily Review: High-Grade NPI Prices Hold Steady Amid Cost Support and Gradual Demand Recovery] August 29 (SMM) - The average price of 10-12% high-grade NPI stood at 940.5 yuan/mtu (ex-factory, tax included), unchanged from the previous trading day.

Malaysia’s stainless-steel scrap market is overwhelmingly export-oriented, with India the dominant buyer and China largely shut out. Domestic 304 scrap fetches RM4.6–6.2/kg (US$1.09–1.47), while Foshan offers only slightly more at RM5.6–5.82/kg (US$1.32–1.38), leaving scant room for arbitrage. In 2024, India absorbed 41.6% of Malaysia’s exports and Bangladesh 32.5%, compared with just 1.3% for China. Policy explains the split: Malaysia exempts stainless scrap from export duties, India’s import rules are simple, but China’s GB/T 39733-2020 standard imposes stringent requirements few Malaysian yards can meet. The trade remains divided—large dealers export, small ones supply locally. Without investment in sorting and certification, Malaysia will stay reliant on South Asia, with China a missed opportunity.