US Fed officials indicate that a significant interest rate cut next month does not seem appropriate; tin prices may maintain fluctuating trend [SMM Tin Morning Meeting Summary]

SMM Tin Morning Meeting Summary on August 25, 2025

Last week, the domestic and overseas tin markets as a whole showed a fluctuating trend, mainly influenced by macro factors and the fundamentals of supply and demand. On the macro front, the US government is in talks with Intel to take a stake in the company, which could boost its domestic manufacturing and potentially impact the global chip supply chain. Additionally, US Fed officials indicated that a significant interest rate cut next month does not seem appropriate, leading to a cooling of market expectations for a rate cut. The domestic tin ore market overall exhibited a pattern of weak supply and demand. On the supply side, tin ore supplies from major production areas such as Yunnan have tightened, with some smelters planning to halt production for maintenance or cut production in August, providing some support to the supply end. On the demand side, after the installation rush in the PV sector ended, orders for PV ribbons in east China declined, while electronic end-users in south China entered the off-season. Coupled with high tin prices, there was a strong wait-and-see sentiment among end-users, with orders only meeting essential needs. Demand in other sectors such as tinplate and chemicals remained stable without any unexpected growth. Spot market transactions were sluggish, with downstream solder companies being cautious about procurement. Traders attempted to refuse to budge on prices, but the acceptance of higher prices was low, resulting in poor overall market transactions. It is expected that SHFE tin prices will maintain a fluctuating trend. Investors need to closely follow the dynamics of domestic and overseas markets and policy changes, and operate prudently.