South Korea is expected to announce a private sector investment plan in the US worth approximately $150 billion, SHFE tin prices maintain a fluctuating trend [SMM Tin Morning Brief]

SMM Tin Morning Brief on August 21, 2025:

Futures: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2509) pulled back after a slight rally in the night session, closing at 267,800 yuan/mt, down 0.23% from the previous trading day.

Macro: (1) At the upcoming summit between Lee Jae-myung and Donald Trump, South Korea will announce private sector investment plans totaling approximately $150 billion in the US. This is separate from the $350 billion investment fund agreed upon during last month's tariff negotiations. These investments include projects already underway or planned by Korean companies in the US, including Samsung Electronics' chip plant and Hyundai Motor's $21 billion investment commitment. Hanwha Group has formulated specific investment plans related to shipbuilding cooperation with the US. (2) According to data from the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology, domestic mobile phone shipments in June 2025 reached 22.598 million units, down 9.3% YoY, with 5G phone shipments at 18.436 million units, down 16.7% YoY, accounting for 81.6% of total mobile phone shipments during the period. From January to June 2025, domestic mobile phone shipments totaled 141 million units, down 3.9% YoY, with 5G phone shipments at 121 million units, down 3.0% YoY, accounting for 85.5% of total mobile phone shipments during the period. (3) Trump's allies called for an investigation into US Fed Governor Cook over mortgage transactions, suggesting possible criminal violations. Trump subsequently demanded Cook's resignation. Cook responded that he would not resign due to bullying.

Fundamentals: (1) Supply-side disruptions: Overall tin ore supply is tightening in major production areas such as Yunnan, with some smelters potentially maintaining production halts for maintenance or implementing minor production cuts in August (Bullish ★). (2) Demand side: PV industry: Following the installation rush, orders for PV tin bars in east China have declined, with some producers reducing operating rates; Electronics industry: The electronics terminal sector in south China has entered the off-season, coupled with high tin prices, leading to strong wait-and-see sentiment among end-users, with orders only meeting essential needs; Other sectors: Demand remains stable in areas such as tinplate and chemicals, without exceeding expectations.

Spot market: High prices have led downstream enterprises to procure cautiously, generally maintaining only essential restocking. Traders' daily trading volume mostly ranges from 10-20 mt, with a few reaching over one truckload (approximately 30 mt), but overall activity remains low.

[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research advice. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this to replace independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]