Fed's Daly: A significant interest rate cut next month does not seem appropriate. SHFE tin prices drop back slightly [SMM Tin Morning News]

SMM Tin Morning Brief on August 15, 2025:

Futures: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2509) fluctuated rangebound at low levels during the night session, closing at 266,500 yuan/mt, down 0.76% from the previous trading day.

Macro: (1) According to informed sources, the Trump administration is negotiating with Intel (INTC.O) for the US government to acquire a stake in the struggling chipmaker, supporting its domestic manufacturing expansion. This deal would aid Intel's planned Ohio factory hub, initially promised to become the world's largest chip plant despite repeated delays. The discussions followed a meeting this week between Trump and Intel's CEO. The proposal involves US government equity payment, with details still being finalized and the potential stake size unclear. Intel shares surged 8.9% to $24.20 in late trading on the news. Year-to-date, the stock has gained 11% as of Wednesday's close. (2) CPCA data showed pickup truck sales reached 41,000 units in July 2025, up 1.7% YoY but down 15.0% MoM, at a median level over the past five years. January-July sales totaled 348,000 units, up 11.0% YoY. (3) US Fed updates: ① Daly: A significant interest rate cut next month seems inappropriate. ② Moussalem: A 50-bp cut doesn’t align with current economic conditions or data. ③ US Treasury Secretary Besant: Did not advocate for a 150-bp Fed rate cut, merely noted models suggest a lower neutral rate.

Fundamentals: (1) Supply disruptions: Tin ore supply tightens in key production areas like Yunnan, with some smelters likely maintaining maintenance shutdowns or minor production cuts in August (Bullish★). (2) Demand side: PV sector: Post-installation rush, tin bar orders declined in east China, lowering operating rates at some producers. Electronics: South China’s end-users entered the off-season amid high tin prices, fostering strong wait-and-see sentiment with only just-in-time procurement orders. Other sectors: Stable demand for tinplate and chemicals without exceeding expectations.

Spot market: SHFE tin dipped slightly during the night session, prompting some clients to prepare bids near 265,000 yuan/mt, while a few made just-in-time procurement. Most traders reported limited transactions, with overall volume remaining low.

[The provided information is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment advice. Clients should exercise independent judgment and not rely solely on this content. SMM bears no responsibility for decisions made based on this information.]