【SMM Analysis】Lithium Giant Defies Downturn: The Strategic Discipline Behind Pilbara Minerals' Record Performance

According to Ecora Royalties’ 2026 interim results released on September 2, the company received 266 tonnes of cobalt through its Voisey’s Bay cobalt stream in the first half of the year, up about 90% from 140 tonnes in the same period of 2025. Ecora said the ramp-up of underground mining operations at Voisey’s Bay is now substantially complete. Driven by higher cobalt volumes and stronger prices, the project’s portfolio contribution after stream costs rose to US$13.5 million in the first half, up 230% year on year, while the average realized cobalt price increased to US$28.4/lb from US$16.5/lb a year earlier. Meanwhile, Vale Base Metals is studying an expansion of the Voisey’s Bay concentrator’s processing capacity from around 2.8 million tonnes per year to 3.8 million tonnes per year. The related pre-feasibility study remains underway, with a final investment decision targeted around 2028. The project also plans both underground and surface drilling in 2026 to optimize the mine plan, support resource expansion and potentially extend mine life. Ecora also said planned maintenance is scheduled at the Voisey’s Bay concentrator in the third quarter and at the Long Harbour refinery in the fourth quarter.

Today, SMM battery-grade lithium carbonate spot prices drifted lower compared with the previous trading day. The lithium carbonate 2701 contract opened lower at 157,000 yuan/mt today, then fluctuated downward after the open. In the morning session, it traded weakly around the 156,000-157,000 yuan range, with an intraday high of 157,800 yuan/mt. Near midday, it quickly dropped to 153,200 yuan/mt, hitting a new intraday low. Around midday, prices seesawed repeatedly in the 154,000-156,000 yuan range. In the afternoon, bulls briefly pushed prices up but failed to break above the average price line. Prices weakened again in late trading, eventually closing down 3.2% at 154,800 yuan/mt, with open interest falling by 9,123 lots. In the spot market, downstream buyers purchased on dips as needed. At 155,000 yuan/mt and below, downstream spot order purchase willingness continued to recover. On the supply side, as prices drifted lower, willingness to sell spot orders remained weak, with some lithium chemical plants holding prices firm and holding back from selling. Overall, market inquiries and actual transactions were relatively active.

[SMM Analysis: August Battery-Grade Lithium Sulphide Production Analysis: Will Q4 See a Surge?] In August, China's lithium sulphide production was 7.79 mt, up 3.6% MoM and up 143% YoY. Will lithium sulphide production surge in Q4? Based on downstream demand, this is currently relatively unlikely, but a mild volume expansion will continue. Average monthly production is expected to reach the 9-10 mt range, edging up from Q3 rather than jumping explosively.