[SMM Analysis of Steel Imports and Exports] Stopping Decline and Turning to Growth! Is Steel Export Back to Spring?

On August 7, data from the General Administration of Customs showed that China exported 9.836 million mt of steel in July 2025, an increase of 158,000 mt MoM, up 1.6% MoM. From January to July, cumulative steel exports reached 67.983 million mt, up 11.4% YoY.

In July, China imported 452,000 mt of steel, a decrease of 18,000 mt MoM, down 3.8% MoM. From January to July, cumulative steel imports reached 3.476 million mt, down 15.7% YoY.

• China's Steel Exports Rebounded After Decline

After a slight decline in June exports, China's total steel exports increased by 1.6% MoM again in July. According to SMM data, the planned export volume of HRC from domestic steel mills in July was 1.21 million mt, an increase of 112,200 mt compared to the actual exports in June, with a MoM growth rate of 10.22%. Although export traders' order-taking weakened somewhat in May and June, steel mills remained active in taking orders, thus maintaining the overall high level of steel exports!

• China's Steel Imports Remained Low in July

On the import side, China imported 452,000 mt of steel in July, maintaining the overall net export situation unchanged. In the first seven months, China's net steel exports reached 64.507 million mt, at a historically low level for the same period.

• Short-term Outlook for Steel Exports

According to data released by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, the global manufacturing PMI in July 2025 was 49.3%, down 0.2% MoM, indicating a weakening recovery in global manufacturing, which continued to be in the doldrums. Based on China's manufacturing PMI data, the new export orders index for China's manufacturing sector in July was 47.1%, down 0.6 percentage points MoM. Under the overseas off-season, China's current overseas order-taking situation declined slightly MoM.

Monitoring data from the World Steel Association showed that the global crude steel production of 70 countries included in the World Steel Association's statistics in June 2025 was 151.4 million mt, down 5.8% YoY. China's production decreased by 9.2% YoY. Except for Africa, North America, and South America, production in other major continents worldwide declined to varying degrees YoY.

As of August 6, 2025, the export offers (FOB) for HRC from India, Turkey, and the CIS were $525/mt, $525/mt, and $470/mt, respectively, while China's export offer for HRC was $475/mt. Currently, China's HRC export offers are $50/mt, $50/mt, and -$5/mt lower than those of other countries, respectively, with price advantages of -41.76%, -41.76%, and -500% MoM compared to May, respectively. Based on the latest export order scheduling situation of steel mills from SMM, the planned HRC export volume for August may decline compared to the actual export volume in June, mainly due to new maintenance plans at some steel mills. Additionally, domestic prices surged rapidly in July, with domestic sales outperforming exports. As a result, steel mills have prioritized maintaining domestic supply.

According to SMM shipping data, as of July 31st, the total port departures of Chinese steel products in July reached 11.3646 million mt, down 1.55% MoM from June. Based on SMM's July steel export order data, due to the rapid increase in domestic prices, poor overseas demand, and low customer interest in high-priced resources, July's order intake declined significantly MoM from June. However, considering that on July 7th, 2025, the State Taxation Administration issued the "Announcement on Optimizing Matters Related to the Advance Payment of Corporate Income Tax Returns" (No. 17 of 2025), which will come into effect on October 1st, 2025, and taking into account the export time window, export traders may accelerate MD shipment loading in August. Therefore, SMM predicts that there may not be a significant decline in exports in August, while a more pronounced decline in exports may occur in September.

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