Trump plans to impose a 100% tariff on semiconductor goods. SHFE tin prices opened higher and then dropped back slightly [SMM Tin Morning News]

August 7, 2025 SMM Tin Morning Briefing:

Futures: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2509) opened higher during the night session but pulled back later, closing at 266,600 yuan/mt, down 0.09% from the previous trading day.

Macro: (1) Trump stated he would impose 100% tariffs on imported goods containing semiconductors, with exemptions for companies establishing production in the US. "We will impose very high tariffs on chips and semiconductors, but companies like Apple have good news: if you're building a factory in the US or have unequivocally committed to do so, you won't pay anything. In other words, we'll impose roughly 100% tariffs on chips and semiconductors. But if you're building a plant in the US, you won't pay. Even if large-scale production hasn't started yet, as long as construction is underway, no fees apply." Trump added that separate tariffs on all products containing semiconductor chips could be implemented as early as next week. (2) Tariffs—①The Swiss Federal President left the US without progress on a trade agreement. ②Trump announced ~100% tariffs on chips and semiconductors, exempting those built in the US. He met with Jensen Huang before the tariff announcement. ③Trump imposed 25% additional tariffs on Indian goods, raising total rates to 50%. ④Trump warned that countries importing Russian crude may face 25% tariffs. ⑤White House officials said Apple would largely avoid US tariffs on India, as Apple pledged $100 billion in additional US investments. ⑥Japan questioned US tariff notices, asking whether 15% would be added uniformly or selectively.

Fundamentals: (1) Supply disruptions: Tin ore supply tightened in major production areas like Yunnan. Some smelters may maintain maintenance shutdowns or minor production cuts in August (Bullish★). (2) Demand: PV sector—Orders for tin bars in east China declined post-installation rush, with lower operating rates at some producers. Electronics—End-users in south China entered the off-season amid high tin prices, leading to strong wait-and-see sentiment and just-in-time procurement orders. Other sectors—Demand remained stable (e.g., tinplate, chemicals) without exceeding expectations.

Spot market: Trading stayed mediocre yesterday, with most downstream enterprises holding minimal orders and having completed restocking earlier. Current procurement was limited to just-in-time needs. Many traders reported mainly low-price bids with thin transactions, often below one truckload.

[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment advice. Clients should exercise independent judgment and not treat this as a substitute for their own decision-making. SMM bears no responsibility for client decisions.]