Indonesia's RKAB Plan to Undergo Restructuring, Tin Prices Expected to Maintain Fluctuating Trend [SMM Tin Morning Meeting Summary]

Published: Aug 4, 2025 08:43

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[SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Indonesia's RKAB System to Undergo Reforms, Tin Prices Expected to Maintain Fluctuating Trend] Last week, the domestic and overseas tin markets generally exhibited a fluctuating downward trend, influenced by multiple factors. On the international macro front, the US and Japan reached an automobile tariff agreement, setting the tariff on imported Japanese cars at 15%. However, this news did not have a significant impact on tin prices. Domestically, the supply of tin ore in the market tightened, with reduced supply from major producing areas like Yunnan. Some smelters maintained production shutdowns for maintenance or slightly cut production. On the demand side, after the installation rush in the PV industry ended, orders declined. The electronics industry entered the off-season, coupled with high tin prices, leading to strong wait-and-see sentiment among end-users, who only maintained necessary orders. Demand in other sectors such as tinplate and chemicals remained stable, without any unexpected growth. The spot market saw sluggish transactions, with most traders only achieving single-digit transaction volumes. On the supply side, Indonesia's refined tin exports are gradually returning to normal levels, with exports reaching around 4,400 mt in June. H1 refined tin exports increased by 73.6% compared to the same period last year. Bahlil Lahadalia, Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) of Indonesia, announced to the media that starting from 2026, the Work Plan and Budget (RKAB) in the mineral and coal mining sector will be implemented on an annual basis, adjusted from the current three-year cycle to a one-year cycle. Mining companies are required to submit their new RKAB production plans for 2026 starting from October 2025. It is expected that SHFE tin prices will continue to maintain a fluctuating trend in the future, and investors need to closely monitor changes in international macro policies. ...

SMM Tin Morning Meeting Summary on August 4, 2025

Last week, the domestic and overseas tin markets overall exhibited a fluctuating downward trend, influenced by multiple factors. On the international macro front, the US and Japan reached an automobile tariff agreement, setting the tariff on imported Japanese cars at 15%. However, this news did not have a significant impact on tin prices. Domestically, the supply of tin ore in the market tightened, with reduced supply from major producing areas such as Yunnan. Some smelters maintained production shutdowns for maintenance or slightly cut production. On the demand side, after the installation rush in the PV industry ended, orders declined. The electronics industry entered the off-season, coupled with high tin prices, leading to strong wait-and-see sentiment among end-users, who only maintained necessary orders. Demand in other sectors such as tinplate and chemicals remained stable, without unexpected growth. The spot market saw sluggish transactions, with most traders only achieving single-digit transaction volumes. On the supply side, Indonesia's refined tin exports are gradually returning to normal levels, with exports of around 4,400 mt in June and a 73.6% YoY increase in refined tin exports in H1. Bahlil Lahadalia, Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) of Indonesia, announced to the media that starting from 2026, the Work Plan and Budget (RKAB) in the mineral and coal mining sector will be implemented on an annual basis, adjusted from the current three-year cycle to a one-year cycle. Mining companies are required to submit new RKAB production plans for 2026 starting from October 2025. It is expected that the SHFE tin price will continue to maintain a fluctuating trend in the future. Investors need to closely monitor changes in international macro policies and domestic supply and demand conditions, and operate cautiously.

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