SHFE tin prices opened higher in the night session and consolidated at highs. Trading in the spot market stalled [SMM Tin Morning News]

Published: Jul 24, 2025 08:41

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SHFE tin prices opened higher during the night session and remained rangebound at elevated levels. Trading in the spot market stalled. [SMM Tin Morning News] Macro: (1) Lisa Su, CEO of AMD (AMD.O), stated at an AI event held in Washington that the cost of chips obtained from TSMC's Arizona factory was higher. Compared to similar parts produced at TSMC's Taiwan factory, the cost of chips from the US factory would be "more than 5% higher, but not exceeding 20%." (2) Tariffs: ① EU officials stated that the US benchmark tariff on EU goods was 15%, with the White House responding that everything was speculation until Trump's announcement. ② The EU was preparing to impose a 30% tariff on US goods worth 100 billion euros in the absence of an agreement. ③ It was reported that US federal prosecutors were laying the groundwork for criminal charges against companies and individuals attempting to evade US tariffs. ④ The US was entering the final stage of an anti-dumping investigation into certain steel imports. ⑤ The US Secretary of Commerce stated that the Japan agreement could serve as a model for a trade agreement with the EU. Major countries faced difficulties in obtaining lower tariff rates. ⑥ Trump stated that he would impose simple tariffs ranging from 15% to 50% on most countries. If major countries could be persuaded to open their markets to the US, he would always be willing to waive tariff provisions.

SMM Tin Morning Brief on July 24, 2025:

Futures market: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2508) opened higher during the night session driven by LME and maintained high-range consolidation, closing at 273,200 yuan/mt, up 1.62% from the previous trading day.

Macro: (1) AMD (AMD.O) CEO Lisa Su stated at an AI event in Washington that chips obtained from TSMC's Arizona facility would be more expensive. Compared to similar components produced at TSMC's Taiwan plants, chips from the US facility would cost "5-20% more." (2) Tariffs—①EU officials claimed the US baseline tariff on EU goods is 15%, while the White House responded that all statements are speculative until Trump announces specifics. ②The EU is preparing to impose 30% tariffs on US goods worth 100 billion euros if no agreement is reached. ③US federal prosecutors are reportedly laying groundwork for criminal charges against companies and individuals attempting to evade US tariffs. ④The US is entering the final phase of anti-dumping investigations on certain steel imports. ⑤US Commerce Secretary: The Japan agreement could serve as a model for a trade deal with the EU. Major economies face difficulties in securing lower tariff rates. ⑥Trump: A simple tariff of 15-50% will be imposed on most countries. He remains willing to drop tariff provisions if major countries agree to open their markets to the US.

Fundamentals: (1) Supply-side disruptions: Tin ore supply tightens in major production regions like Yunnan. Some smelters may maintain maintenance shutdowns or minor production cuts in July (Bullish★). (2) Demand side: PV sector: After the installation rush, tin bar orders declined in east China, with some producers reducing operating rates. Electronics sector: End-users in south China entered the off-season, compounded by high tin prices, leading to strong wait-and-see sentiment and only essential orders. Other sectors: Demand remains stable in tinplate and chemical applications without exceeding expectations.

Spot market: Overall spot market transactions were weak, with most traders reporting single-digit deals. Downstream enterprises exhibited high wait-and-see sentiment amid the traditional solder consumption off-season, resulting in low order volumes.
[The provided information is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment advice. Clients should exercise caution and avoid using it as a substitute for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to Shanghai Metals Market (SMM).]

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