This week, the high-grade NPI market continued to be in the doldrums, with prices slightly declining. Specifically, the weekly average price of SMM 8-12% high-grade NPI was 901 yuan/mtu (ex-factory, tax included), down 4.3 yuan/mtu WoW. The FOB index price of Indonesian NPI was reported at USD 109.8/mtu, down USD 0.6/mtu WoW. This price trend is the result of multiple factors acting on both the supply and demand sides, with the market presenting a complex pattern dominated by buyers but with expectations of weakening supply.​

Huge Amount of RKAB Quota Might Increase the Supply? Nickel Ore Prices Likely to Fall. Profit Margins of Smelters Remain Negative

Currently, macro factors still dominate the direction of nickel prices. Due to uncertainties in external tariffs and geopolitics, there is a risk of a downward shift in the price center. The core reference range is 118,000-123,000 yuan/mt.

Demand remains weak, and nickel ore prices in the Philippines are expected to continue to fall. Indonesia's RKAB quota for 2025 is as high as 364 million, and nickel ore prices are expected to be more likely to fall than rise.

On July 18, the SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate index price was 26,963 yuan/mt, with the quotation range for battery-grade nickel sulphate being 26,980-27,480 yuan/mt, and the average price slightly increasing compared to yesterday.

As of now, the MHP coefficient (relative to the SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate index) ranges from 83.5% to 84%, and the FOB price of Indonesian MHP is $12,352/mt Ni.

Futures market: Overnight, LME copper opened at $9,606.5/mt, initially touched a low of $9,597/mt, then fluctuated upward rangebound, and finally closed at $9,678/mt, up 0.43%, with trading volume at 11,000 lots and open interest at 268,000 lots.