The most-traded SHFE tin contract leads the gains strongly amid supply-demand imbalance and macro disturbances [SMM Tin Midday Review]

As of the midday session on July 18, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2508) closed at 264,930 yuan/mt, surging by 3,190 yuan (a 1.55% increase) from the previous day. Trading volume exceeded 50,000 lots, hitting a two-week high, with significant capital inflows. The LME tin 3-month contract also strengthened, temporarily closing at $33,195/mt (a 0.38% increase), touching a high of $33,300 during the session, supported by a weaker US dollar and supply concerns.

​​Suspension of mining operations in Myanmar's Wa region: The resumption of tin mining in Myanmar's Wa region has been slow. Despite the announcement of a resumption process in February, actual ore production requires complex approvals, and incremental supply is not expected until Q4. This has led to a decline in domestic tin concentrate TCs to a low of 18,000 yuan/mt, forcing smelters to refuse to budge on prices.

​​Expectations for US Fed interest rate cut: US PPI in June met expectations, with the probability of an interest rate cut in September remaining at 35%. The US dollar index pulled back to 94.2, easing pressure on industrial metals.

​​Policy risks: Trump plans to impose 10%-15% tariffs on over 150 countries. If this affects the trade flow of the tin industry chain, it may trigger short-term volatility.

​​Technical analysis: The most-traded SHFE tin contract has broken through the key resistance level of 260,000 yuan/mt, with short-term support moving up to 260,000 yuan/mt. If it holds steady, it may test the previous high of 265,000 yuan. For LME tin, attention should be paid to the resistance level of $33,500.