SHFE tin prices opened lower and closed higher in the night session, while the spot market remained sluggish [SMM Tin Morning News]

SMM Tin Morning Briefing on July 18, 2025:

Futures: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2508) opened lower and moved higher during the night session, fluctuating upward to around 263,000 yuan/mt before settling near 263,000 yuan/mt, up 0.50% from the previous trading day.

Macro: (1) The Ministry of Finance issued an announcement adjusting the consumption tax policy for ultra-luxury vehicles. The scope of taxation is revised to "passenger vehicles and light commercial vehicles with retail prices of 900,000 yuan (excluding VAT) or above, regardless of powertrain type (including pure electric, fuel cell, etc.)." Pure electric and fuel cell ultra-luxury vehicles without cylinder capacity (displacement) will only be subject to consumption tax at the retail stage. No consumption tax will be levied on second-hand ultra-luxury vehicles sold by taxpayers. (2) TSMC (TSM.N), the world's largest semiconductor foundry, reported Q2 earnings on Thursday, with net profit surging 60.7% YoY to a record high of NT$398.3 billion ($13.53 billion), exceeding market expectations of NT$377.9 billion, driven by surging demand for AI-related chips. (Bullish★) (3) Tariffs—① Vice Chairman of the Thai Chamber of Commerce: Thailand will propose exempting 90% of US goods from tariffs. ② UK media: The EU plans to impose new service tariffs and export controls on the US as retaliation after trade talks collapsed. ③ White House trade advisor Navarro: EU VAT is also a subsidy. We hope to see VAT reductions and lower tariffs. ④ Brazilian President Lula: Will regulate and tax US digital companies.

Fundamentals: (1) Supply-side disruptions: Tin ore supply tightens in major production areas like Yunnan, with some smelters likely maintaining maintenance shutdowns or minor production cuts in July. (Bullish★) (2) Demand side: PV sector: Orders for PV tin bars in east China declined after the installation rush, with operating rates dropping at some producers; Electronics sector: End-user demand in south China entered the off-season, compounded by high tin prices, leading to strong wait-and-see sentiment and only essential orders; Other sectors: Stable demand in tinplate and chemical industries, without exceeding expectations.

Spot market: The overall spot market remained sluggish, with downstream enterprises' intended purchase prices mostly below 259,000 yuan/mt and low bid levels. Most traders reported transactions of 10-20 mt, while a few closed deals exceeding one truckload.
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