SHFE tin operates under pressure, with supply chain disruptions unable to offset the suppression from the off-season demand [SMM tin midday review]

Published: Jul 17, 2025 11:41

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[SMM Tin Midday Review: SHFE Tin Pressured Amid Supply Chain Disruptions, Unable to Offset Off-Season Demand Suppression] The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2508): The most-traded SHFE tin contract (2508) closed at 261,740 yuan/mt in the midday session, down 0.66%. The intraday trading range was 260,640–262,800 yuan/mt, with sluggish trading and a decrease in open interest. LME tin (3-month): Currently quoted at $32,875/mt, down 0.35% on the day; it continued to decline to $32,799/mt (down 1.48%) in the Asian session today, hitting a new low since July.

The most-traded SHFE tin 2508 contract closed the morning session at 261,740 yuan/mt, down 0.66%. The intraday trading range was 260,640–262,800 yuan/mt, with sluggish turnover and declining open interest.

LME tin (3-month) was quoted at $32,875/mt, down 0.35% on the day. During the Asian session, it further dropped to $32,799/mt (down 1.48%), hitting the lowest level since July.

US Fed policy deadlock: The June US CPI rose 2.7% YoY, dampening expectations for interest rate cuts. Fed official Bostic stated "inflation is at a turning point," while Logan emphasized "the need to maintain tight policies."

Trump denied rumors of firing Powell but criticized his "failure to cut interest rates." Market expectations for a September rate cut probability dropped to 62%.

The US plan to impose 30% tariffs on the EU and Mexico will take effect in August, while Vietnamese transshipments of Chinese goods face 40% punitive tariffs. Escalating global trade tensions are suppressing industrial metals demand expectations.

The most-traded SHFE tin contract: Daily chart faces resistance at the 60-day moving average (263,000 yuan). LME tin price: Broke below the key support level of $33,000/mt, with short-term potential to test the $31,000–32,000/mt range.

Myanmar's H2 production resumption expectations (incremental supply) and off-season demand create a "weak expectations vs. weak reality" dynamic, while macro risk-off sentiment (US dollar index rebounded to 99) and escalating trade tensions limit price rebound potential.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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