SHFE tin operates under pressure, with supply chain disruptions unable to offset the suppression from the off-season demand [SMM tin midday review]

The most-traded SHFE tin 2508 contract closed the morning session at 261,740 yuan/mt, down 0.66%. The intraday trading range was 260,640–262,800 yuan/mt, with sluggish turnover and declining open interest.

LME tin (3-month) was quoted at $32,875/mt, down 0.35% on the day. During the Asian session, it further dropped to $32,799/mt (down 1.48%), hitting the lowest level since July.

US Fed policy deadlock: The June US CPI rose 2.7% YoY, dampening expectations for interest rate cuts. Fed official Bostic stated "inflation is at a turning point," while Logan emphasized "the need to maintain tight policies."

Trump denied rumors of firing Powell but criticized his "failure to cut interest rates." Market expectations for a September rate cut probability dropped to 62%.

The US plan to impose 30% tariffs on the EU and Mexico will take effect in August, while Vietnamese transshipments of Chinese goods face 40% punitive tariffs. Escalating global trade tensions are suppressing industrial metals demand expectations.

The most-traded SHFE tin contract: Daily chart faces resistance at the 60-day moving average (263,000 yuan). LME tin price: Broke below the key support level of $33,000/mt, with short-term potential to test the $31,000–32,000/mt range.

Myanmar's H2 production resumption expectations (incremental supply) and off-season demand create a "weak expectations vs. weak reality" dynamic, while macro risk-off sentiment (US dollar index rebounded to 99) and escalating trade tensions limit price rebound potential.