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Regarding the reasons for the anticipated increase in performance, Shandong Gold stated: In the first half of 2025, the company coordinated and optimized its production layout, strengthened core technology research, improved refined management levels, significantly enhanced operational efficiency while scientifically matching project construction, and achieved a synergistic improvement in production efficiency, resource utilization rate, and project construction speed. Coupled with the upward trend in gold prices, the company's profits have seen a significant year-on-year increase, continuing to consolidate its upward, positive, and excellent development momentum.
Reviewing the gold price trend in the first half of the year, it can be seen that:
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The average price of Au99 spot on June 30 was 761 yuan/gram, representing a 23.86% increase compared to the average price of 614.4 yuan/gram on December 31, 2024.
The semi-annual line increase of COMEX gold in the first half of 2025 was 25.52%, and it set a new historical high of $3,509.9 per ounce in the first half; as of 18:50 on July 15, COMEX gold rose by 0.4% to $3,372.6 per ounce, and the semi-annual line increase of COMEX gold in the second half of the year was temporarily 1.96%.
Regarding the future trend of gold prices, the views of multiple institutions are as follows:
Goldman Sachs' report pointed out that from January to May this year, central banks and institutions around the world purchased an average of 77 mt of gold per month, and it is expected that gold prices will reach new highs in the coming quarters; it believes that gold prices will reach $3,700 per ounce by the end of 2025 and rise to $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026.
CITIC Securities' research report stated that recent positive progress in high-level trade negotiations between China and the United States has triggered a decline in gold prices. The report believes that despite the negotiation results exceeding market expectations, Trump and the MAGA faction within his team may still dominate trade policies again. Subsequent tariff policies of the Trump administration may still fluctuate, and it is also advancing plans for tax cuts, reducing government spending, and increasing deficits. It is expected that the Trump administration's subsequent policies will still be favorable for gold prices.
At the 2025 SMM (13th) Minor Metal Industry Conference - Main Forum, hosted by Shandong Humon Smelting Co., Ltd. and SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. (SMM), Han Xiao, General Manager of Zhishui Investment Co., Ltd., provided a future outlook on the gold and silver market in 2025, stating that the factors influencing precious metal prices in 2025 will primarily revolve around the US Fed's monetary policy. Considering comprehensive factors from both fundamentals and technicals, it is expected that the precious metal market will experience considerable fluctuations with an upward bias in the second half of 2025. There is a higher probability of fluctuations in Q3, and a possible upward trend in Q4. The upper resistance level for gold prices in the second half of 2025 is expected to be around $3,800/ounce, with the lower support level near $3,000/ounce. For silver prices in the second half of 2025, the upper resistance level is expected to be around $38.0/ounce, with the lower support level between $28.0/ounce. The price range for silver TD in the second half of 2025 is expected to be between 7,500 yuan/kg and 9,000 yuan/kg.》Click for details
Citi said that due to the easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and improved prospects for global economic growth, gold prices are expected to consolidate between $3,100 and $3,500/ounce in Q3.
According to a research report by China Securities, the significant rise in gold prices to $3,500/ounce from January to April was primarily driven by the uncertainties brought about by Trump's policies. Given the easing of trade tensions and the expectation of a recovery in the second half of the year, the short-term bullish factors for gold are not obvious. If global stock markets strengthen and the Russia-Ukraine conflict eases, risk appetite may rebound, and gold prices at historical highs may not be immune to a significant correction.
China Galaxy Securities released its outlook for major asset classes in the second half of 2025: (1) Gold: The price center for COMEX gold may steadily break through $3,300/ounce, with the possibility of reaching $3,500/ounce under extreme risk scenarios. (2) Crude oil: If geopolitical tensions continue to escalate in Q3, along with transportation bottlenecks and the impact of seasonal demand peaks, there is a possibility that WTI oil prices may reach $75/barrel. In Q4, as demand weakens and OPEC+ resumes production increases, the price center for WTI oil is expected to return to around $60/barrel.
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