[SMM Steel Market Morning Brief] China exported 58.147 million mt of steel in H1, up 9.2% YoY

★ Macro ★

01 ★★★ [Aggregate Social Financing Reached 22.83 Trillion Yuan in H1 2025Z5/>Preliminary statistics from the People's Bank of China show that aggregate social financing (ASF) grew by 22.83 trillion yuan in H1 2025, an increase of 4.74 trillion yuan compared to the same period last year. Renminbi loans expanded by 12.92 trillion yuan during this period. By end-June, M2 grew 8.3% YoY while M1 increased 4.6% YoY.

02 ★★ Z8/>[PBOC Conducts 1.4 Trillion Yuan Reverse Repo Operations on July 15]

To maintain abundant liquidity in the banking system, the People's Bank of China will conduct 1.4 trillion yuan worth of outright reverse repo operations on July 15 through fixed-quantity, rate-based tenders with multiple price-winning mechanisms.

03 ★★ [Markets Anticipate US Fed to Resume Interest Rate Cuts in H2]

At a State Council Information Office press conference on July 14, PBOC Deputy Governor Zou Lan stated that markets widely expect the US Federal Reserve to resume interest rate cuts in H2. With major developed economies entering easing cycles, expectations for Fed rate cuts have intensified, which should narrow the monetary policy cycle divergence and interest rate spreads between China and the US.

★ Industry & Downstream ★

01Z16/> ★★★[China's Steel Exports Surge 9.2% YoY in H1: GACC Data]

Customs data released on July 14 shows China exported 9.678 million tons of steel in June 2025, down 90,000 tons or 8.5% MoM. From January to June, cumulative steel exports reached 58.147 million tons, up 9.2% YoY. Steel imports totaled 470,000 tons in June, decreasing 11,000 tons or 2.3% MoM, with H1 imports at 3.023 million tons, down 16.4% YoY.

02 ★★★ [Railway Construction Maintains Rapid Progress in H1]

Railway projects across China continued advancing with notable achievements this year. China State Railway Group Co., Ltd. reported 355.9 billion yuan of fixed asset investment in H1, up 5.5% YoY, with 301 km of new lines commissioned. The modern railway infrastructure system is accelerating its development. A company official emphasized railway investments' strong industry chain multiplier effect, with construction maintaining high-level operation through resource optimization and strategic planning.

★ Other Hot Topics ★

⭕China Coal Transportation & Sales Association recently convened a seminar on coal market operations in H1, stressing the need to strengthen industry self-discipline, curb "rat race" competition, and promote supply-demand balance in the coal marketZ26/>⭕On July 10, Xuzhou Iron & Steel Group and Shandong Weiqiao Pioneering Group signed a strategic cooperation agreement for Simandou iron ore procurement. The partnership aims to establish stable ore supply through coordinated efforts in sourcing and logistics.

⭕Tata Steel announced it has commenced construction of an electric arc furnace at its UK Port Talbot plant, with an exchange filing confirming the project as part of its £1.25 billion transformation plan. The £500 million government-funded initiative is scheduled for commissioning by end-2027.
⭕ Ministry of Public Security: As of month-end June, the nationwide ownership of NEVs reached 36.89 million units, accounting for 10.27% of the total automobile ownership. In H1, 5.622 million new NEVs were registered, up 27.86% YoY, hitting a record high.

⭕ As of July 14, a total of 18 automakers had announced their production and sales data for June. BYD topped the list with 382,600 units sold in June; SAIC and Geely ranked second and third, with sales of 365,300 units and 236,000 units, respectively.

⭕ From July 7 to July 13, global shipyards received orders for 14+2 new vessels. Among them, Chinese shipyards received orders for 6+2 new vessels.