Aluminum prices are under short-term pressure, with attention on inventory demand

Published: Jul 15, 2025 09:08

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Macro side, the domestic favorable atmosphere remains unchanged; the US June CPI data is about to be released, and the market expects that the prices of goods affected by tariffs, such as furniture and toys, may rise faster, potentially pushing the core inflation rate up to 2.9%. Meanwhile, the disruptions to trade flows caused by overseas tariffs have not yet dissipated. Fundamentals side, the domestic operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum has slightly decreased due to replacement projects, with the proportion of liquid aluminum dropping to 74.78% and the volume of casting ingots increasing. Cost side, there has been an upward trend recently due to the rising prices of alumina. Demand side, most downstream sectors are experiencing a strong off-season atmosphere, with aluminum prices rising during the off-season, which has a more pronounced inhibitory effect on demand. The operating rate in the aluminum processing sector remains sluggish. Additionally, the social inventory of domestic electrolytic aluminum ingots has once again turned into an inventory buildup trend. SMM expects that aluminum prices will be under pressure in the short term, and it is necessary to closely monitor changes in inventory and demand in the future.

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