MMi Daily Iron Ore Report (July 14)

Today, the most-traded HRC contract rose all the way, closing at 3,395, up 0.62% on the day. In the spot market, HRC prices gained 10-20 yuan/mt, while CRC prices were flat. Transactions improved slightly today, mainly driven by spot-futures purchases, while end-users remained cautious. According to an SMM survey, the impact from maintenance on HRC output this week stood at 131,000 mt, down 43,200 mt WoW. Next week, the impact is expected at 180,100 mt, up 49,100 mt WoW, suggesting an increase in supply. Demand side, the market has entered the verification period of the September-October peak season, but overall, end-user order-taking fell short of expectations, with no significant purchasing activity released. As the spot-futures price spread narrowed, buying interest in futures improved. Overall, the weak fundamentals of sheets & plates will continue to cap the upside room of futures, but the cost side remains supportive in the short term. Therefore, HRC prices are expected to stay high in the short run.

Iron ore concentrates in the Tangshan area are relatively stable, with 66% grade dry basis, tax-inclusive EXW prices at 960-970 yuan/mt. On the supply side, overall resources at mines and beneficiation plants are relatively tight, providing some support to ore prices. On the demand side, hot metal production of local steel mill blast furnaces remains at a relatively high level, continuing to support demand for iron ore concentrates.