BMI under Fitch: Global copper mine production expected to grow by an average of 2.9% annually over the next decade

On July 10 (Thursday), according to a new report from BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, global copper mine production is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 2.9% over the next decade, rising from 23.8 million mt in 2025 to 30.9 million mt in 2034.

BMI stated that this growth rate is largely attributable to the commissioning of several new and expansion projects, driven by historically high copper prices and a positive demand outlook.

This year, BMI expects global copper mine production to increase by 2.5%, driven by a recovery in Chilean output and increased production at the Oyu Tolgoi mega-mine in Mongolia. Peru, Russia, and Zambia will also remain major contributors to production, the agency added.

BMI cited data from the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) showing that global copper production increased by 2% YoY from January to April this year, due to higher output from the Las Bambas, Quellaveco, and Toromocho mines in Peru, the Kamoa-Kakula mine in the DRC, and the aforementioned Oyu Tolgoi project.

However, the production growth forecast for 2025 has been revised downward, reflecting a decrease in Kamoa-Kakula's production guidance, as the mine has recently been affected by seismic activity. BMI also highlighted the downside risks pointed out by major miners such as Glencore and Anglo American. Nevertheless, many other companies, including Codelco, the largest copper producer, remain optimistic about the outlook, supporting an increase in global production.

**Chile to Maintain Leading Position**

Regionally, BMI expects Chile to continue to dominate the copper supply chain, with production in the country projected to grow by 3% to 5.7 million mt in 2025, accounting for a quarter of global mine production.

A major reason for the increase in Chilean production is the continued ramp-up at Teck's Quebrada Blanca mine, which will offset some of the challenges faced by state-owned Codelco.

In the long term, BMI said that Chile's outlook remains positive, "despite a range of factors that could limit investment in the sector in the coming years," as the acceleration of the green energy transition drives up demand and Chile's vast reserves of critical minerals encourage future investment.

Production in the DRC is also expected to grow by 3%, but downside risks remain due to the downward revision of Kamoa-Kakula's guidance. Meanwhile, Peru's production is projected to increase by 3.2%, rebounding after a 1% decline in 2024.

(Wenhua Comprehensive)