[SMM Daily Review] Chromium market operates steadily with slightly mediocre transactions

On July 11, 2025, the ex-factory prices of high-carbon ferrochrome in Inner Mongolia were 7,800-7,900 yuan/mt (50% metal content); in Sichuan and north-west China, the ex-factory prices of high-carbon ferrochrome were also 7,800-7,900 yuan/mt (50% metal content); the quoted price of high-carbon ferrochrome from South Africa was 7,800-8,000 yuan/mt (50% metal content); and the quoted price of high-carbon ferrochrome from Kazakhstan was 8,800-9,000 yuan/mt (50% metal content), unchanged from the previous trading day on a MoM basis.

There were no adjustments to ferrochrome prices during the week, and the market was expected to remain stable in the short term. In terms of supply and demand, there was a significant increase in ferrochrome supply, leading to a loose market, and the support for prices from supply and demand factors was expected to weaken in the future. South China officially entered the rainy season, and most producers resumed production under the advantage of electricity. In the north, the impact of environmental protection checks ended, and production at producers previously affected returned to normal. In addition, the July stainless steel tender unexpectedly closed flat, improving market pessimism, expanding the profit margin for ferrochrome sales, and leading some producers to plan for production increases. The operating rate improved, and it was expected that ferrochrome supply would increase significantly in July. However, downstream stainless steel was constrained by the supply-demand imbalance during the off-season, with planned production decreasing further, reducing the demand for ferrochrome. Purchase willingness was average, and actual trading volume during the week was limited. Supply and demand gradually shifted from a tight balance to a slight surplus. In terms of costs, chrome ore prices remained relatively stable, with small increases in raw ore prices from Zimbabwe and South Africa. Additionally, coke was expected to see the first round of price increases. The immediate smelting cost of high-carbon ferrochrome during the week was basically flat compared to the previous week on a WoW basis, with expectations of a slight increase. Ferrochrome producers had a strong reluctance to budge on prices. Overall, with chrome ore prices remaining stable and the positive support from the flat stainless steel tender, inquiry sentiment recovered. In the short term, the ferrochrome market was expected to have limited fluctuations and remain stable.

In terms of raw materials, on July 11, 2025, the spot prices of 40-42% South African powder at Tianjin Port were 54-55 yuan/mtu; the quoted prices of 40-42% South African raw ore were 49-51 yuan/mtu; the quoted prices of 46-48% Zimbabwe chrome concentrate powder were 56-57 yuan/mtu; and the quoted prices of 40-42% Turkish chrome lump ore were 60-61 yuan/mtu, unchanged from the previous trading day on a MoM basis. In the futures market, 40-42% South African powder remained stable at $265-270/mt.

The chrome ore market remained stable during the week, with differentiated purchase demands and slightly mediocre overall trading. On the one hand, there was high enthusiasm for purchasing Zimbabwe chrome concentrate powder and South African raw ore. The previous low-price dumping of Zimbabwe chrome ore led to higher-grade ore held by traders, coupled with a small amount of arrivals recently, pushing chrome ore prices to rise slightly due to tight supply. Southern producers actively resumed production, releasing demand for purchasing South African raw ore, and actual trading volume increased. Trading for other chrome ores was sluggish due to limited demand. Port inventory of South African powder was sufficient, and overseas market quotes remained flat, lacking the driving force for price increases. Mainstream chrome ores were less economical than Zimbabwe chrome ores, making sales difficult, and inquiry sentiment was poor during the week. In addition, the market is paying close attention to the development of the taxation policy on chrome ore exports in South Africa. However, it will take some time for this policy to be implemented, and the chrome ore market is expected to remain stable in the short term.