How much copper consumption will the "inconsistent" PV installed capacity bring this year? [SMM Analysis]

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        The new PV installations announced by the National Energy Administration this year have indeed shocked the market. From January to May 2025, China's cumulative new PV installations reached 197.85GW, representing a cumulative year-on-year increase of 150%. Many people were "intimidated" by such a high volume of new installations, believing that the copper consumption driven by the PV industry this year would soar. However, is this really the case?

       SMM estimates that China's PV module production from January to May was 237GW, with a net export volume of 109.04GW during the same period. SMM's PV module inventory decreased from 51.01GW in January to 24.76GW in May, with a destocking volume of 26.25GW. Therefore, China's PV module demand from January to May was 154.21GW (237GW - 109.04GW + 26.25GW). However, according to data released by the National Energy Administration,PV installations from January to May 2025 were 197.85GW. The difference between China's PV module demand and 197.85GW during this period is approximately 40GW. This portion may be attributed to the advance volume of projects that have been declared under the 531 policy and will be installed in the second half of the year. It is worth noting that this portion of installations will not be double-counted.

       SMM predicts that China's actual PV installations in the first half of 2025 will be 165GW (102.5GW in H1 2024), and actual PV installations in the second half of 2025 will be 132.1GW (174GW in H2 2024), with a total PV installation volume of 297.1GW for the entire year of 2025. Thanks to the improvement in photoelectric conversion efficiency, the copper consumption per GW on the PV installation side has decreased from 2,500mt/GW in 2024 to 2,400mt/GW in 2025. Correspondingly,the copper consumption in the first half of 2025 is expected to be 396,000mt, representing a year-on-year increase of 54.57% (256,200mt in H1 2024). The copper consumption per GW in the second half of 2025 is expected to be 317,000mt, representing a month-on-month decrease of 20% and a year-on-year decrease of -27.11% (435,000mt in H2 2024).

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