[SMM Tin Midday Review: SHFE Tin Continues to Fluctuate at Highs, with Expectations for US Fed Interest Rate Cut Continuing to Fester as Core Support] On the afternoon of August 8, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2509) closed at 268,020 yuan/mt, up approximately 490 yuan from the previous day's settlement price, representing a 0.18% increase. Prices fluctuated at highs during the day, with the trading range narrowing to 267,260-268,790 yuan/mt. Market sentiment was cautious, with downstream order volumes remaining low. Meanwhile, the LME tin contract pulled back slightly to around $33,720 in the early Asian session, reflecting overseas bullish sentiment being disrupted by both macro policies and inventory divergence.

EU: A 15% tariff cap will still apply to chips exported to the US. SHFE tin prices remain high and rangebound. [SMM Tin Morning News] Macro: (1) According to the official WeChat account of Chengdu Release on the evening of August 7, the 28th Chengdu International Auto Show will be held from August 29 to September 7. The latest car consumption subsidy activities in Jinjiang District and Chenghua District have been announced. In Jinjiang District, for the purchase of new household passenger vehicles (including passenger NEVs and internal combustion engine passenger vehicles), after submitting the required documents and meeting the corresponding conditions, and upon passing the review, subsidies will be provided in the form of UnionPay red envelopes, with a maximum subsidy of 4,500 yuan for car purchases in Jinjiang District. In Chenghua District, for the purchase of new household passenger vehicles (including internal combustion engine vehicles and NEVs) from above-scale automakers, after submitting the required documents and meeting the corresponding conditions, and upon passing the review, subsidies of up to 6,500 yuan for car purchases will be provided in the form of UnionPay red envelopes. (2) The EU has stated that even if President Trump announces new tariffs on semiconductors entering the US, the tariff cap on chips exported from the EU to the US will remain at 15%. EU spokesman Olof Gill said on Thursday that Washington has committed that the 15% tariff cap will apply to EU semiconductor exports, regardless of what tariffs the US imposes on other exporters. He said, "We expect the US to honor this commitment." (3) Tariffs: ① Reciprocal tariffs have officially taken effect. Trump: Billions of dollars will start flowing into the US. ② EU: A 15% tariff cap will still apply to chip exports to the US. ③ Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba: There are no disagreements between Japan and the US regarding not imposing existing tariffs on goods imported from Japan.

[SMM Tin Futures Brief Commentary: Macro Disruptions and Tug-of-War Between Sellers and Buyers Intertwine as SHFE Tin Seeks Direction Amidst Volatility] On August 7, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2509) exhibited a trend of initial decline followed by a rebound. It opened at 268,000 yuan/mt, with the intraday low reaching 266,550 yuan/mt. In the afternoon, it was boosted by the recovery of macro sentiment, ultimately closing at 267,940 yuan/mt, up 1,080 yuan (a 0.4% increase) from the previous day, with a trading volume of 11.802 billion yuan. During the same period, the LME tin contract closed up 1.04% at $33,575/mt, reflecting the ongoing tug-of-war between overseas low inventory support and macro disruptions.

[SMM Tin Midday Review: SHFE Tin Fluctuates at Highs Under Pressure, Supply Bottlenecks and Macro Factors Intensify Competition] During the midday session on August 7, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2509) closed at 267,430 yuan/mt, up approximately 0.21% from the previous day's settlement price. The intraday fluctuation range narrowed to 266,550-268,700 yuan/mt, with market sentiment remaining cautious. Meanwhile, the LME tin 3-month contract was quoted at $33,345/mt during the Asian session, up $115 from the previous day, reaching a high of $33,430 during the day, but with significant resistance above.

Trump plans to impose a 100% tariff on semiconductor goods. SHFE tin prices opened higher and then pulled back slightly [SMM Tin Morning News]. Macro: (1) Trump stated that he would impose a 100% tariff on imported goods containing semiconductors, but would exempt companies that establish production facilities in the US. "We will impose very high tariffs on chips and semiconductors, but there's good news for companies like Apple: if you're building a factory in the US, or have unequivocally committed to building one in the US, you won't have to pay anything. In other words, we will impose approximately a 100% tariff on chips and semiconductors. But if you're building a factory in the US, you won't have to pay. Even if large-scale production hasn't truly started yet, but construction is underway, then you won't have to pay." Trump also stated that independent tariffs on all products containing semiconductor chips could be imposed as early as next week. (2) Tariffs: ① The President of the Swiss Confederation left the US without making progress on a trade agreement. ② Trump claimed that he would impose approximately a 100% tariff on chips and semiconductors, with exemptions for companies that establish production facilities in the US. He met with Jensen Huang before announcing the tariffs. ③ Trump announced a 25% tariff increase on Indian goods, bringing the total tariff rate to 50%. ④ Trump: If other countries import Russian crude oil, they may face a 25% tariff increase. ⑤ White House officials stated that Apple would be largely unaffected by the US tariffs on India, and Apple increased its US investment commitment by $100 billion. ⑥ Should an additional 15% be added or should the tariff be unified at 15%? Japan questioned the inconsistency between the US tariff announcement and the agreement.

[SMM Commentary on SHFE Tin Futures: Macro Disturbances and Weak Fundamentals Create a Tug-of-War, Tin Prices Lack Breakthrough Momentum in the Short Term] On August 6, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin 2509 contract closed at 266,940 yuan/mt in the afternoon, up slightly by 0.3% from the previous day. The intraday amplitude narrowed to the range of 266,000-267,700 yuan/mt, continuing the recent pattern of fluctuating at highs. Meanwhile, the LME tin 3-month contract was reported at $33,515/mt, up by 0.65%. The market was characterized by a mix of bullish and bearish factors, with macro disturbances and weak fundamentals creating a tug-of-war, resulting in a lack of breakthrough momentum for prices in the short term.

[SMM Tin Midday Review: SHFE Tin Fluctuates at Highs Amid Supply Bottlenecks and Macro Uncertainties] On the afternoon of August 6, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (2509) closed at 267,450 yuan/mt, up slightly by 0.49% from the previous settlement price, with the intraday amplitude narrowing to the range of 266,000-267,700 yuan/mt. Meanwhile, the LME tin 3-month contract was quoted at $33,350/mt, up 0.15% from the early Asian session, but the gains were curbed in the European session due to the rebound of the US dollar.

New Zealand's Q2 unemployment rate rises to highest level in nearly five years; SHFE tin prices remain high and rangebound [SMM Tin Morning Brief] Macro: (1) New Zealand's Q2 unemployment rate rose to its highest level in nearly five years, potentially prompting the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to resume interest rate cuts. Statistics New Zealand announced on Wednesday that the unemployment rate rose to 5.2% from 5.1% in Q1, marking the highest level since Q3 2020. Employment fell by 0.1% from the previous quarter, in line with expectations. The New Zealand economy has been impacted by uncertainties surrounding Trump's tariff policies and their effects on global trade, with business confidence declining, manufacturing and services sectors contracting, and the real estate market remaining sluggish in Q2. The RBNZ is expected to resume interest rate cuts on August 20, after pausing them in July. Most economists predict a 25-basis-point cut to 3%. (2) Tariffs - ① Trump: Plans to announce tariffs on pharmaceuticals and chips in the coming week, with pharmaceutical tariffs reaching up to 250%. Will significantly raise tariffs on India within the next 24 hours. If the EU fails to fulfill its investment obligations to the US, a 35% tariff will be imposed. ② The US trade balance in June recorded a deficit of -$60.2 billion, the smallest deficit since September 2023.

[SMM Tin Futures Brief Commentary: Macro Disruptions Intensify, Tin Market Awaits Breakthrough Opportunities] On August 5, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2509) closed at 267,490 yuan/mt in the afternoon, up 1,340 yuan from the previous day, representing a 0.5% increase. Prices fluctuated rangebound around the 266,000 yuan/mt pivot during the day, reaching a high of 267,650 yuan/mt and a low of 265,080 yuan/mt. Trading volume stood at 42,925 lots, while open interest decreased by 824 lots to 26,388 lots, indicating cautious battles between bulls and bears at key price levels. Meanwhile, the LME tin 3-month contract was trading around $33,175/mt.