National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): CPI rose 0.1% YoY in June

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), in June 2025, the national consumer price index (CPI) rose by 0.1% YoY. Among them, urban areas saw a 0.1% increase, while rural areas experienced a 0.2% decline. Food prices fell by 0.3%, while non-food prices rose by 0.1%. Consumer goods prices declined by 0.2%, while service prices increased by 0.5%. In H1, the national CPI decreased by 0.1% compared to the same period last year. In June, the national CPI fell by 0.1% MoM. Among them, urban areas saw a 0.1% decline, while rural areas remained unchanged. Food prices fell by 0.4%, while non-food prices remained unchanged. Consumer goods prices declined by 0.1%, while service prices remained unchanged. Dong Lijuan, the chief statistician of the NBS's Urban Department, interpreted the CPI and Producer Price Index (PPI) data for June 2025, stating that the CPI rose by 0.1% YoY, marking a turnaround after four consecutive months of decline. The shift from decline to increase in the CPI was mainly influenced by a rebound in the prices of industrial consumer goods. The YoY decline in industrial consumer goods prices narrowed from 1.0% in the previous month to 0.5%, reducing the downward impact on the CPI YoY by approximately 0.18 percentage points. The core CPI rose by 0.7% YoY, with the increase expanding by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, reaching a new high in nearly 14 months. In June, the PPI fell by 0.4% MoM, the same decline as the previous month. The main reasons for the MoM decline in the PPI were: first, seasonal downward pressure on prices in some domestic raw material manufacturing industries. Second, the increase in green electricity drove down energy prices. Third, prices in some industries with a relatively high proportion of exports were under pressure.

In June 2025, the CPI rose by 0.1% YoY.

In June 2025, the national CPI rose by 0.1% YoY. Among them, urban areas saw a 0.1% increase, while rural areas experienced a 0.2% decline. Food prices fell by 0.3%, while non-food prices rose by 0.1%. Consumer goods prices declined by 0.2%, while service prices increased by 0.5%. In H1, the national CPI decreased by 0.1% compared to the same period last year.

In June, the national CPI fell by 0.1% MoM. Among them, urban areas saw a 0.1% decline, while rural areas remained unchanged. Food prices fell by 0.4%, while non-food prices remained unchanged. Consumer goods prices declined by 0.1%, while service prices remained unchanged.

I. YoY Changes in Prices of Various Goods and Services

In June, the prices of food, tobacco, and alcohol rose by 0.1% YoY, contributing approximately 0.03 percentage points to the CPI increase. Among food items, fresh fruit prices rose by 6.1%, contributing approximately 0.12 percentage points to the CPI increase. Aquatic product prices rose by 3.4%, contributing approximately 0.07 percentage points to the CPI increase. Egg prices fell by 7.7%, contributing approximately 0.05 percentage points to the CPI decline. Livestock meat prices fell by 4.2%, contributing approximately 0.13 percentage points to the CPI decline, with pork prices falling by 8.5%, contributing approximately 0.12 percentage points to the CPI decline. Grain prices fell by 1.2%, contributing approximately 0.02 percentage points to the CPI decline. Fresh vegetable prices fell by 0.4%, contributing approximately 0.01 percentage points to the CPI decline.

Among the other seven categories, prices increased in six and decreased in one on a YoY basis. Specifically, prices for other goods and services, clothing, and education, culture, and recreation rose by 8.1%, 1.6%, and 1.0% respectively, while prices for household goods and services, healthcare, and housing increased by 0.7%, 0.4%, and 0.1% respectively. In contrast, prices for transportation and communication fell by 3.7% YoY.

II. Month-on-Month (MoM) Price Changes for Various Goods and Services

In June, prices for food, tobacco, and liquor fell by 0.3% MoM, contributing to a decrease of approximately 0.09 percentage points in the CPI. Among food items, fresh fruit prices dropped by 3.3%, contributing to a decrease of approximately 0.07 percentage points in the CPI; egg prices fell by 2.9%, contributing to a decrease of approximately 0.02 percentage points in the CPI; livestock meat prices declined by 0.6%, contributing to a decrease of approximately 0.02 percentage points in the CPI, with pork prices falling by 1.2%, contributing to a decrease of approximately 0.02 percentage points in the CPI; fresh vegetable prices rose by 0.7%, contributing to an increase of approximately 0.01 percentage points in the CPI; and aquatic product prices increased by 0.7%, contributing to an increase of approximately 0.01 percentage points in the CPI.

Among the other seven categories, prices increased in three, remained unchanged in two, and decreased in two on a MoM basis. Specifically, prices for other goods and services, household goods and services, and healthcare rose by 0.5%, 0.2%, and 0.1% respectively; prices for housing and transportation and communication remained unchanged; while prices for clothing and education, culture, and recreation both fell by 0.1% MoM.

In June 2025, the CPI shifted from a YoY decline to an increase, with core CPI continuing to rebound

——Interpretation of June 2025 CPI and PPI Data by Dong Lijuan, Chief Statistician of the Urban Department, National Bureau of Statistics (NBS)

In June, policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption continued to take effect, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) shifting from a YoY decline in the previous month to an increase of 0.1% YoY; it fell by 0.1% MoM, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month. Excluding food and energy prices, core CPI continued to rebound on a YoY basis, rising by 0.7%. The Producer Price Index for Industrial Products (PPI) fell by 0.4% MoM, the same decline as the previous month, and decreased by 3.6% YoY, with the decline widening by 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month.

I. CPI shifted from a YoY decline to an increase, with core CPI continuing to rebound

The CPI rose by 0.1% YoY, marking a shift from a decline after four consecutive months of decreases. The shift from a decline to an increase in the CPI was mainly influenced by a rebound in industrial consumer goods prices. The YoY decline in industrial consumer goods prices narrowed from 1.0% in the previous month to 0.5%, reducing the downward impact on the CPI YoY by approximately 0.18 percentage points. Among these, changes in oil prices contributed to a narrowing of the energy price decline by 1.0 percentage points compared to the previous month, reducing the downward impact on the CPI YoY by approximately 0.08 percentage points. Influenced by changes in international commodity prices, gold and platinum jewelry prices rose by 39.2% and 15.9% YoY respectively, contributing to a combined increase of approximately 0.21 percentage points in the CPI YoY. The effects of policies promoting consumption continued to manifest, with prices for cultural and recreational durable consumer goods, household textiles, and household appliances rising by 2.0%, 2.0%, and 1.0% YoY respectively. The decline in automobile prices gradually narrowed, with gasoline-powered and new energy compact car prices falling by 3.4% and 2.5% YoY respectively this month, marking the smallest declines in nearly 28 and 26 months. The decline in food prices narrowed slightly. Food prices fell by 0.3% YoY, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month. Among them, beef prices ended 28 consecutive months of decline and turned to rise by 2.7%; pork prices fell by 8.5%, marking the first decline after a series of increases. Service prices rose by 0.5%, with the increase remaining stable. Core CPI rose by 0.7% YoY, with the increase expanding by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month, hitting a new high in nearly 14 months.

CPI fell by 0.1% MoM, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month. The decline in food prices was smaller than seasonal levels. Affected by higher temperatures and more rainfall than usual during the same period, food prices fell by 0.4% MoM, with the decline being 0.5 percentage points smaller than seasonal levels. Among food items, the prices of freshwater fish and fresh vegetables rose by 4.3% and 0.7% respectively, with both increases higher than seasonal levels. Industrial consumer goods prices turned from decline to increase. Affected by changes in international oil prices, gasoline prices turned from a 3.8% decline MoM in the previous month to a 0.4% increase, driving energy prices to turn from a 1.7% decline MoM in the previous month to a 0.1% increase. Excluding energy, industrial consumer goods prices rose by 0.1% MoM. Among them, affected by the high gold price and increased substitution demand, platinum jewelry prices rose by 12.6%, marking the largest MoM increase in nearly 10 years. Service prices remained stable with some increases. Among them, due to increased demand for housing rentals during the graduation season, rental prices rose by 0.1%.

II. PPI's MoM decline remained the same as the previous month, with prices in some industries showing signs of stabilization and rebound.

PPI fell by 0.4% MoM, with the decline remaining the same as the previous month. The main reasons for PPI's MoM decline are as follows: First, seasonal declines in the prices of some domestic raw material manufacturing industries. With the increase in high-temperature and rainy weather in summer, affecting the construction progress of some real estate and infrastructure projects, coupled with relatively sufficient supply of steel, cement, etc., the prices of ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industries fell by 1.8%, and the prices of non-metallic mineral products industries fell by 1.4%, jointly affecting PPI's MoM decline by about 0.18 percentage points. Second, the increase in green electricity drove energy prices down. With the arrival of summer, solar and wind power generation in north-west China and hydropower generation in south-west China increased, reducing overall power generation costs. The prices of the power and heat production and supply industries fell by 0.9%; at the same time, the substitution effect of green electricity on thermal power strengthened, reducing the demand for thermal coal. Coupled with stable coal production and sufficient coal stocks at power plants and ports, coal processing prices fell by 5.5%, and coal mining and washing industry prices fell by 3.4%. The above three industries jointly affected PPI's MoM decline by about 0.15 percentage points. Third, prices in some industries with a relatively high proportion of exports were under pressure. Global trade growth has slowed down, and the uncertainty in the international trade environment has affected enterprises' export expectations. In China, some industries with a relatively high proportion of exports are facing increased downward pressure on prices. Prices in the computer, communication, and other electronic equipment manufacturing industries have fallen by 0.4%, those in the electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industries have dropped by 0.2%, and those in the textile industry have also declined by 0.2%.

Affected by the MoM decline and changes in the comparison base, the YoY decline in PPI expanded by 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month. However, with the intensified implementation of various macro policies, the supply-demand relationship in some industries has improved, and prices have shown signs of stabilization and rebound. Firstly, the in-depth advancement of the construction of a unified national market has driven a narrowing of the YoY decline in prices in some industries. Efforts to curb enterprises' low-price and disorderly competition have intensified, and the phase-out of backward production capacity and the improvement of product quality have been gradually promoted. The prices of gasoline and diesel vehicle manufacturing and new energy vehicle manufacturing have risen by 0.5% and 0.3% MoM, respectively, with the YoY decline narrowing by 1.9 and 0.4 percentage points compared to the previous month, respectively. The prices of PV equipment and electronic component manufacturing have fallen by 10.9% YoY, with the decline narrowing by 1.2 percentage points. The prices of lithium-ion battery manufacturing have dropped by 4.8% YoY, with the decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points. Secondly, the intensified and expanded policies to boost consumption have driven a YoY rebound in the prices of some consumer goods. The potential of domestic demand continues to be unleashed, and the demand for high-quality life has increased. Among consumer goods, the prices of general daily necessities and clothing have risen by 0.8% and 0.1% YoY, respectively. The prices of durable consumer goods have fallen by 2.7%, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month. From an industry perspective, the prices of arts and crafts and ceremonial items manufacturing have risen by 13.1% YoY, those of spun silk and silk fabric processing have increased by 1.2%, and those of sporting goods manufacturing have gone up by 0.7%. The YoY decline in the prices of household refrigeration appliances manufacturing, household beauty and health care appliances manufacturing, and television manufacturing has narrowed by 0.8, 0.5, and 0.3 percentage points, respectively, compared to the previous month. Thirdly, the accumulation of new momentum has driven a YoY increase in the prices of some high-tech industries. China has accelerated the cultivation of new quality productive forces, with the innovation-led role continuously strengthening. New momentum such as high-end manufacturing, intelligent manufacturing, and the digital economy has continued to develop and grow. The prices of integrated circuit packaging and testing series have risen by 3.1% YoY, those of wearable smart device manufacturing have increased by 1.4%, those of microwave communication equipment have gone up by 1.3%, those of aerospace vehicle and equipment manufacturing have risen by 1.1%, those of servers have increased by 0.9%, and those of micro and special motors and components manufacturing have gone up by 0.6%.