[SMM Nickel Midday Review] Nickel prices continued to fall on July 8, with Trump sending tariff letters to 14 countries

SMM Nickel July 8 News:

Macro News:

(1) Trump sent tariff letters to 14 countries, imposing a 25% tariff on imports from Japan and South Korea starting August 1, and tariffs ranging from 25% to 40% on imports from Malaysia, South Africa, Indonesia, Myanmar, Thailand, and others. An additional 10% tariff will be added for any country aligned with the BRICS' anti-US policies, and an executive order was signed to extend the reciprocal tariff suspension period to August 1. White House officials stated that specific country tariffs would not be stacked with industry tariffs.

(2) Today, China issued an additional 1 billion yuan in central budget investments to promote employment and income growth among key groups through work-for-relief programs. This investment will fund 1,975 projects, expected to create local employment for 310,000 people from key groups, including those lifted out of poverty, returnee migrant workers, and other rural laborers. Of the 1 billion yuan, 459 million yuan (45.9%) will be allocated as labor compensation, further increasing the proportion of labor compensation in central investments.

Spot Market:

Today, SMM #1 refined nickel prices were 119,800-122,400 yuan/mt, with an average price of 121,100 yuan/mt, down 900 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premiums for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel ranged from 1,900-2,100 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 2,000 yuan/mt, down 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The quotation range for domestic mainstream brands of electrodeposited nickel premiums and discounts was -200-300 yuan/mt.

Futures Market:

The most-traded SHFE nickel 2508 contract rose slightly during the night session, returning to the 121,000 yuan level. However, it continued to be in the doldrums during the daytime session, closing at 120,310 yuan/mt by midday, down 0.72%.

In the near term, nickel prices are expected to remain in the doldrums within the 118,000-123,000 yuan/mt range. With Trump's global tariff deadline of July 9 approaching, countries without trade agreements face the risk of higher tariffs, leading to a surge in market risk aversion. Macro risk aversion is suppressing rebound momentum.