Hot Topics in the Aluminum Market in June:
- Price Forecast: Strong off-season sentiment in fundamentals; aluminum prices may fluctuate at highs in July (P5)
- As we enter July, the positive macroeconomic sentiment in China remains unchanged, but the "anti-cut-throat competition" policy may lead to a short-term weakening of end-use demand. The overseas trade war remains inconclusive, necessitating vigilance against the impact of overseas macroeconomic uncertainties. On the fundamentals side, supply-side, aluminum smelters are operating steadily, with an increase in casting ingot production, putting pressure on social inventory destocking. Demand-side, the off-season sentiment is strong downstream, with frequent news of production cuts and a significant weakening of demand, exerting a notable suppressive effect on aluminum prices. In summary, the negative impact from fundamentals is relatively strong, but the limited extent of aluminum ingot inventory buildup and the large open interest in the front-month contract on the futures market pose a risk of cornering. It is expected that prices will operate within the range of 20,200-20,800 yuan/mt next month, with continuous attention to the progress of tariff events, changes in aluminum ingot inventory, and variations in downstream orders.
- Bauxite: China imported 17.514 million mt of bauxite in May, with the proportion of non-mainstream ores rising again (P6)
- Alumina: Operating capacity of alumina increased by 3.14% MoM in June, expected to remain high in July (P9)
- Primary Aluminum: Casting ingot production increased in some regions in late June; downstream high inventory forced a decline in the proportion of liquid aluminum in July (P14)
- Inventory: The inflection point of domestic aluminum ingot inventory was basically established in late June; a stepped inventory buildup in July may reach around 550,000 mt (P20)
- Aluminum Auxiliary Materials: Limited cost support led to a continuous decline in prebaked anode prices in July; the transfer of primary aluminum capacity reshaped the regional supply-demand pattern (P22)
- Aluminum Scrap: The aluminum scrap market saw intensified differentiation and high-level fluctuations in June; the game continues in July, awaiting a breakthrough (P25)
- Aluminum Plate/Sheet and Strip: The aluminum plate/sheet and strip industry faced triple pressures from high aluminum prices, weak demand, and high inventory in June; the industry's pressure intensified in July (P29)
- Aluminum Foil: The aluminum foil industry moved forward under pressure in June; destocking fell short of expectations, dragging down the outlook for July (P30)
- Aluminum Extrusion: Strong off-season sentiment in June; operating rates in various extrusion sectors may continue to face pressure in the short term (P33)
- Aluminum Wire and Cable: The operating rate of aluminum wire and cable production fell under pressure in June; expectations for order growth in H2 are divided (P37)
- Aluminum Rod: Processing fees for aluminum rods plummeted in June; the supply side may face significant production cuts in July (P38)
- Secondary Aluminum Alloy: The center of gravity for cast aluminum alloy futures shifted upward in the first month of listing; under high costs and weak demand, the spot price of ADC12 faced pressure and fluctuations (P40)
- Primary Aluminum Alloy: Production cuts in aluminum billets triggered the conversion of liquid aluminum; the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy is expected to receive structural support in July (P42)
For more details, please refer to the China Aluminum Monthly Report 20250707
