US dollar falls, most metals fall. SHFE copper, coking coal, and European container shipping futures drop over 1%. SHFE silver rises for four consecutive days [SMM Daily Review]

SMM reported on July 4:

Metals Market:

As of the day session close, domestic base metals showed mixed performance, with SHFE nickel leading the gains with a 0.64% increase, SHFE lead rising 0.2%, SHFE zinc gaining 0.34%, and SHFE copper leading the losses with a 1.28% decline. Alumina main contract fell 0.59%, while aluminum casting main contract dropped 0.25%.Z4/>Additionally, lithium carbonate main contract declined 0.75%, polysilicon main contract rose 0.68%, and silicon metal main contract fell 0.68%. The European container shipping main contract dropped 1.71%.

In the ferrous metals series, most prices rose: iron ore increased 0.62%, stainless steel gained 0.39%, HRC and rebar both rose over 0.2% (HRC up 0.25%, rebar up 0.23%). For coking coal and coke, coking coal fell 1.06% and coke dropped 0.42%.

Overseas markets saw broad declines in base metals as of 15:03, with LME copper leading the losses with a 0.8% drop, LME nickel falling 0.76%, and LME copper down 0.8%. Other metals experienced relatively small fluctuations.

In precious metals, COMEX gold rose 0.26% while COMEX silver fell 0.05% as of 15:03. Domestically, SHFE gold declined 0.22% and SHFE silver rose 0.59%, recording a fourth consecutive gain.

Market snapshot as of 15:03 today

》Click to view SMM market dashboard

Macro Front

Domestic Developments:

[Announcement: State Council Information Office to Hold Policy Briefing on China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone's High-Standard Economic and Trade Rules Alignment] According to China.org.cn, the State Council Information Office will hold a policy briefing at 3:00 PM on July 4, 2025 (Friday). Tang Wenhong, Assistant Minister of Commerce; Wu Wei, Member of the Standing Committee and Executive Vice Mayor of the Shanghai Municipal Party Committee; and relevant officials from the People's Bank of China and the General Administration of Customs will introduce the pilot program's achievements in aligning with international high-standard economic and trade rules and its replication efforts, followed by a Q&A session.

[National Energy Administration Convenes Mid-Term Meeting for Wind and PV Power Resource Census Pilot Work] To advance the wind and PV power resource census pilot work and ensure high-quality completion of tasks outlined in the Pilot Work Plan, the National Energy Administration organized a mid-term working meeting on the morning of July 2. Wan Jinsong, Member of the Party Group, Deputy Director of the National Energy Administration, and Head of the Wind and PV Power Resource Census Pilot Work Group, attended and delivered remarks. The meeting fully acknowledged the achievements of the census work and outlined the next steps, emphasizing that the wind and solar power resource census pilot work must adhere to the requirements of "high positioning, high standards, and high efficiency." It called for further recognition of the importance of the resource census pilot work, integrating quality requirements throughout the entire process, deepening coordination among all parties, accelerating progress, and focusing on the application value of the results to contribute to the high-quality construction of the national new-type energy system. The meeting reviewed and approved the "Technical Guidelines for Wind and PV Power Resource Census Pilot Work" and the "Notice on Strengthening Data Management of Regional Wind and Solar Power Resource Observation Networks."

The PBOC conducted 7-day reverse repo operations worth 34 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.4%. As 525.9 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos matured today, a net withdrawal of 491.9 billion yuan was achieved for the day.

[Sichuan Unveils Plan to Develop Emerging Industries and Accelerate Future Industries]The Sichuan Provincial Government Office recently issued the "Implementation Plan for Developing Emerging Industries and Accelerating Future Industries (2025–2027)," outlining the overall goals, key breakthrough directions, and major tasks for Sichuan's development of emerging industries and cultivation of future industries. The plan proposes that by 2027, emerging industries in the province will develop in clusters, fostering over 30 nationally influential industry-leading enterprises and creating five 100-billion-yuan industrial clusters and ten 50-billion-yuan industrial clusters. Future industries will achieve innovative breakthroughs, cultivating over 10 high-growth innovative enterprises and producing a batch of major innovations and landmark products, with initial industrialisation capabilities. The plan identifies 23 key breakthrough directions, including 15 emerging industry fields—such as AI, robotics, integrated circuits, new-type displays, biopharmaceuticals, nuclear medicine, commercial aerospace, new-type aviation, low-altitude economy, hydrogen energy, new-type energy storage, laser equipment, additive manufacturing, bio-agriculture, and advanced materials—and eight future industry fields, including 6G, quantum technology, the metaverse, frontier biotechnology, brain science and brain-computer interfaces, controlled nuclear fusion, ultra-high-speed rail transit, and deep-earth science.

►On July 4, the central parity rate of the yuan in the interbank foreign exchange market was 7.1535 yuan per US dollar.

On the US dollar:

As of 15:03, the US dollar index fell 0.24% to 96.89. US June nonfarm payrolls exceeded expectations, leading markets to nearly abandon bets on a July interest rate cut while still expecting cuts to begin in September. Data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that seasonally adjusted nonfarm payrolls increased by 147,000 in June, far surpassing the consensus estimate of 117,500. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.1% in June from 4.2% in May. Non-farm payrolls data for May showed 144,000 new jobs added. Following stronger-than-expected non-farm data, current market expectations indicate a 93% probability of unchanged interest rates in July, with interest rate cuts still projected to start in September and two reductions expected this year. Initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending June 28 stood at 233,000, reaching a six-week low compared to 236,000 the previous week. Continuing unemployment benefits totaled 1.964 million, the highest level since November 2021. The US June ISM non-manufacturing PMI reached 50.8, slightly exceeding the expected 50.6 and the previous month's 49.9. Business activity and new orders rebounded, while the employment index contracted the most in three months. (Wenhua Comprehensive)

Macro Updates:

Today will see the release of Switzerland's June unadjusted unemployment rate, Switzerland's June seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, the global June industrial production cycle turning point leading indicator, Canada's June leading indicator MoM change, Canada's June total reserve assets, and other data. Notably, the State Council policy briefing will address the implementation and replication of China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone's comprehensive alignment with international high-standard economic and trade rules.

July 4 (Friday) coincides with the US Independence Day holiday, with adjusted financial market trading hours.

Overseas exchange holiday schedules: (All times Beijing) 　　

》US July 4 public holiday triggers overseas exchange closures

Crude Oil Update:

As of 15:03, oil prices declined in both markets with WTI down 0.34% and Brent down 0.49%, as geopolitical conflicts eased and expectations grew that major oil producers would agree to increase output this weekend. Previously, four OPEC+ representatives stated the organization would announce another significant production increase of 411,000 barrels per day in August to regain market share. This announcement weighed on oil prices.

Barclays noted on Thursday that it has raised its 2025 Brent crude forecast by $6 to $72/barrel and its 2026 forecast by $10 to $70/barrel due to improved demand outlook. (Wenhua Comprehensive)

SMM Daily Review

► Aluminum prices decline; Jiangxi and Hunan aluminum scrap markets maintain wait-and-see stance [Aluminum Scrap Daily Review]

SMM Weekly Review

► Copper prices breach 80,000 yuan threshold suppressing downstream procurement; copper wire and cable operating rate declines further MoM [SMM Wire & Cable Market Weekly Review]

► Off-season aluminum scrap market remains at high levels with unresolved cost pressures for secondary aluminum alloys [Aluminum Scrap & Secondary Aluminum Weekly Review]

► H2 arrival sees continued market divergence for germanium [SMM Germanium Market Weekly Review]

► Selenium tender activity intensifies; market confidence drives price strength [SMM Selenium Market Weekly Review]

► Output decline supports firm bismuth prices [SMM Bismuth Spot Weekly Review]

► Output decline supports firm antimony prices [SMM Antimony Market Spot Weekly Review]