Price momentum was good in H1. How will the rare earth market evolve in H2? [SMM Analysis]

SMM reported on July 1: Before we knew it, we were already in the second half of 2025. The rare earth market in the first half of the year seemed to be full of uncertainties every day. During this period, rare earth prices experienced several ups and downs, but from a broader macro perspective, the overall price trend still showed a certain upward trajectory.

At the end of last year, the rare earth market was driven by a concentration of positive news, akin to receiving a shot in the arm, causing rare earth prices to rise rapidly. Especially before the Chinese New Year, the price of Pr-Nd oxide once soared to 415,000 yuan/mt, representing an increase of approximately 4.3% compared to the New Year's Day period. The festive atmosphere of the Chinese New Year seemed to have infected the rare earth market, with post-holiday bullish sentiment remaining high. The purchasing demand from downstream also proved to be very active, and this robust demand further fueled the surge in rare earth prices.

However, market changes are always unpredictable, and the good times did not last long. Starting from the end of February, as magnetic material enterprises resumed work, the number of new orders did not meet expectations, causing rare earth prices to experience a slight pullback, as if injecting a touch of calm into the overheated market.

As spring faded away, the rare earth market in March seemed somewhat mediocre. Without the intervention of new influencing factors, rare earth prices only fluctuated within a relatively small range, exhibiting a fluctuating rangebound trend. By April, the implementation of rare earth export control policies dealt a new blow to the market. This policy led to a rapid decline in rare earth prices, and the market seemed to enter a brief cooling-off period. However, by the end of the month, with the purchasing and restocking behavior of major clients and the delivery of long-term agreement orders, rare earth prices received a boost again, showing an upward trend.

In May, with the superposition of various factors, rare earth prices continued their upward trajectory overall, and the market also showed a certain level of activity. However, entering June, the situation changed again. Rare earth prices began to stabilize, with no more significant fluctuations. The reason behind this was that the market entered a situation of weak supply and demand, with a stalemate forming between upstream and downstream due to their game, making it difficult for prices to undergo major changes.

Faced with such market conditions, most industry participants believe that the current stable situation may persist until the end of July. The future market trend remains full of uncertainties. From a supply and demand perspective, it is expected that the demand situation will improve significantly from the end of Q3 to the beginning of Q4, and rare earth prices will show an upward trend during this stage. However, after the peak demand season, the market will also return to sluggishness, and it is expected that rare earth prices at the end of the year will drop back slightly compared to the September-October peak season.

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