World Bank report: Gold price outlook is biased towards upward movement, with silver and platinum continuing to strengthen this year

The World Bank's analyst team continues to be optimistic about the outlook for precious metals in its latest report, expecting gold prices to trend upward over the next 18 months, while silver and platinum prices are set to maintain their recent strength until 2026.

Jeetendra Khadan, Senior Economist, and Kaltrina Temaj, Researcher, from the World Bank's forecasting department, stated that precious metal prices surged to record highs in the first half of 2025. This rally was led by gold, which approached its all-time high in mid-June amid escalating geopolitical tensions and heightened economic uncertainty.

In the first half of 2025, gold prices have risen by nearly 25%. Analysts attribute the recent surge in gold prices to increased policy uncertainty and heightened geopolitical tensions.

This risk-aversion sentiment has led to a significant rebound in inflows into gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the first quarter of 2025, pushing investment demand to its highest level since 2022. Additionally, central bank purchases continue to support gold demand, reflecting the reserve management strategies of central banks worldwide.

Meanwhile, silver and platinum prices also experienced strong rallies in the first half of the year, with analysts expecting their prices to remain elevated in 2025 and 2026.

Supply & Demand Analysis

World Bank analysts forecast that gold prices will rise by approximately 35% YoY in 2025, before pulling back slightly in 2026 as some prevailing uncertainties begin to dissipate. Nevertheless, gold prices are expected to remain well above historical averages by 2025-26, approximately 150% higher than the average from 2015-2019.

Silver prices also rose by 20% in the first half of the year, and with the current gold-silver ratio still above the 10-year average, this supports a steady upward trend in silver prices. The World Bank expects silver demand to remain robust, underpinned by its dual attributes as an industrial input and a safe-haven asset.

Analysts also point out that in terms of silver supply, global production is expected to grow steadily in 2025, primarily driven by an expansion in mine production. Silver recycling accounts for approximately 20% of global supply and is expected to remain stable this year. Overall, strong demand is expected to drive silver prices up by approximately 17% YoY in 2025, with a further 3% increase anticipated in 2026.

Platinum was one of the precious metals with the most prominent rally in the first half of the year, surging by nearly 30% to reach its highest level in over a decade. This rally was primarily driven by supply constraints, with mine production expected to fall to its lowest level in five years this year.

However, on the other hand, World Bank analysts believe that platinum demand in the automotive and industrial sectors will decline significantly, with these two sectors accounting for nearly two-thirds of global platinum demand. Overall, the tight supply will support platinum prices, which are expected to rise by 10% YoY this year and 2% YoY in 2026.