SHFE tin fluctuates at highs, waiting for a breakthrough. LME tin is under pressure amid expectations of supply recovery [SMM tin midday review]

Today (July 2, 2025), the most-traded SHFE tin contract SN2508 exhibited a pattern of fluctuating at highs: it opened at 270,600 yuan/mt, slightly higher than the previous settlement price of 269,840 yuan/mt. The intraday fluctuation range was 267,800–271,700 yuan/mt, and it closed at 268,510 yuan/mt at midday, up 0.44%. Open interest increased to 31,900 lots, reflecting intensified tug-of-war between longs and shorts at the 270,000 yuan/mt level, with strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market.

The spot market was sluggish, with downstream buyers having limited acceptance of high prices. Smelters held onto their prices and were reluctant to sell, while terminals only maintained just-in-time procurement.

Expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts have risen: US core PCE in May slightly exceeded expectations, but personal consumption expenditures fell 0.3% MoM, reinforcing the view that "high interest rates are difficult to sustain." The US dollar index pulled back to around 96, alleviating valuation pressure on commodities.

Risk of tariff disruptions: Trump has stated that he will not consider extending the July 9 trade negotiation deadline. If tariffs on electronic components imported from China are expanded, it may suppress downstream export demand for tin.

Prices fluctuate rangebound: LME tin closed at $33,535/mt (-0.27%) in the night session, failing to break through the short-term resistance level of $34,000/mt.

The most-traded SHFE tin contract is expected to maintain sideways movement within the range of 258,000–273,000 yuan/mt: Investors are advised to pay attention to the support level of 265,000 yuan/mt and the resistance level of 273,000 yuan/mt. Swing trading should focus on selling on rallies, while being cautious of rebound momentum from downstream restocking at lower prices.