US dollar falls for seven consecutive days; domestic metal market outperforms overseas market; LME copper touches $10,000 mark during trading; LME zinc falls 1.38% [overnight market]

SMM July 2 Report:

Metal Market:

Overnight domestic market base metals mostly rose, with SHFE tin up 0.32%, SHFE copper up 0.46%, SHFE nickel slightly higher, SHFE lead up 0.2%, SHFE aluminum up 0.46%, and SHFE zinc down 0.36%. Additionally, the most-traded alumina futures contract rose 0.03%, while the most-active aluminum alloy futures contract gained 0.43%.

Ferrous metals series showed mixed performance overnight: iron ore remained flat at 710.5 yuan/mt, stainless steel rose 1.08%, rebar rose 0.9%, and HRC rose 0.61%. Coking coal and coke markets saw coking coal down 0.55% and coke down 0.32%.

Overseas market base metals generally declined, with LME copper rising 0.75% after hitting $1,000/mt intraday; LME aluminum up 0.17%, LME lead down 0.29%, LME zinc extending losses with a 1.38% decline, LME tin down 0.27%, and LME nickel down 0.16%.

Precious metals overnight: COMEX gold rose 1.28%, COMEX silver up 0.2%. Domestically, SHFE gold gained 0.84% and SHFE silver rose 0.35%.

As of 7:06 a.m. July 2, overnight closing prices

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Macro Front

Domestic Developments:

[Xi Jinping Presides Over Sixth Central Financial and Economic Commission Meeting, Stressing Deepened National Unified Market Construction and High-Quality Marine Economy Development] General Secretary Xi Jinping, also Chinese President, CMC Chairman, and Director of the Central Committee for Financial and Economic Affairs, chaired the sixth meeting of the Central Committee for Financial and Economic Affairs on the morning of July 1, addressing deepened national unified market construction and high-quality marine economy development. In his speech, Xi emphasized that establishing a national unified market is essential for new development patterns and high-quality growth, requiring implementation of CPC Central Committee plans with coordinated efforts. Advancing Chinese-style modernization necessitates high-quality marine economic development through a unique maritime power path. The meeting outlined "five unifications, one opening" as foundational requirements: unified market institutions, infrastructure, government behavior standards, regulatory enforcement, and factor markets, while maintaining expanded domestic and international openness. Key focuses include: combating disorderly low-price competition through legal means, upgrading product quality, phasing out outdated capacity; regulating government procurement and tender processes with fair winning bid result audits; standardizing local investment attraction with information disclosure; promoting integrated domestic-foreign trade development and export-to-domestic sales channels; conducting enterprise-related law enforcement campaigns; improving market-unified fiscal/tax systems, statistical accounting, and credit frameworks; fostering correct performance evaluation among officials; and refining high-quality development assessment systems. ((CCTV News)

[Shanghai Releases Detailed Rules for 2025 E-Bike Trade-In Subsidy Program] The Shanghai Municipal Commission of Commerce and other departments issued the "Detailed Implementation Rules for the 2025 Shanghai E-Bike Trade-In Subsidy Program." From July 1 to December 31, 2025 (inclusive, the same hereinafter), Shanghai will provide individual consumers with a one-time instant car purchase subsidy of 500 yuan for scrapping old e-bikes (including batteries) and purchasing qualified new ones. Among them, an additional 100 yuan subsidy will be given for scrapping old e-bikes and purchasing new lead-acid battery e-bikes. During the implementation period of this policy, each individual consumer can enjoy the trade-in subsidy once. Consumers are encouraged to purchase qualified new e-bikes produced by enterprises that meet the "E-Bike Industry Standard Conditions." New e-bikes participating in the trade-in program must have product qualification certificates and CCC certificates compliant with current mandatory national standards. (Cailian Press)

US dollar side:

Overnight, the US dollar index continued its decline for the seventh consecutive trading day, falling 0.13% to 96.64. According to CCTV News, the US Senate passed a comprehensive tax cut and spending bill on July 1 local time and submitted it to the House of Representatives. The House will debate and vote on the bill on the 2nd. Marex analyst Edward Meir stated: "The newly passed budget bill provides support as it is expected to increase the deficit by $3 trillion over the next decade. This will stimulate inflation to some extent and, more importantly, increase our debt burden, which we must repay through more financing and borrowing." The market is focusing on US ADP employment data to be released on Wednesday and employment data on Thursday to gauge the US Fed's policy direction. Fed Chairman Powell said that excluding tariff factors, inflation performance meets expectations. The market currently expects the US Fed to cut interest rates twice this year, by 50 basis points each time, starting in September. The market is also watching trade negotiations ahead of the US tariff exemption deadline. (Wenhua Composite)

Other currencies:

Eurozone June CPI rose 2% YoY, matching expectations, compared to 1.9% previously. Eurozone core CPI increased 2.3% YoY in June, in line with expectations. Breaking down Eurozone inflation components, services recorded the highest annual price growth in June (3.3% vs 3.2% in May), followed by food, alcohol & tobacco (3.1% vs 3.2%), non-energy industrial goods (0.5% vs 0.6%), and energy (-2.7% vs -3.6%). ((Cailian Press)

Macro:

Today, data such as the eurozone's unemployment rate for May, the number of job cuts by US Challenger companies in June, and the change in US ADP employment in June will be released. It is noteworthy that the European Central Bank will hold a central bank forum in Sintra.

Crude oil:

Both WTI and Brent crude oil futures rose overnight, with WTI up 0.65% and Brent up 0.81%. The market is digesting positive demand indicators while remaining cautious ahead of the OPEC meeting's decision on production policy for August. The market currently expects OPEC to increase its crude oil production in August, with an increase similar to the substantial production increase agreement reached in May, June, and July. This expectation has curbed the rise in crude oil prices. (Wenhua Comprehensive)