The US dollar index fell for six consecutive days, setting a record, and copper prices continued to strengthen overnight [SMM Morning Comment on Copper]

SMM News on July 1: Overnight, LME copper opened at US$9,843.5/mt, touching a low of US$9,812/mt at the beginning of the session before fluctuating upward. It reached a high of US$9,881/mt near the end of the session and closed at US$9,879/mt, down 0.01%. Trading volume reached 18,000 lots, and open interest stood at 292,000 lots. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2508 contract opened at 79,630 yuan/mt, touching a low of 79,560 yuan/mt at the beginning of the session before fluctuating upward to a high of 79,910 yuan/mt during the session. It dropped back slightly near the end of the session and closed at 79,780 yuan/mt, up 0.01%. Trading volume reached 32,000 lots, and open interest stood at 211,000 lots. On the macro front, some US Fed officials indicated that they expected one more interest rate cut this year. Coupled with the expectation that Trump would replace Powell with a dovish figure, market bets on a US Fed interest rate cut this year increased. The US dollar index closed lower for the sixth consecutive month, marking its largest decline since the early 1970s, which is bullish for copper prices. On the fundamental front, from the supply side, as it was the end of the quarter, most enterprises did not participate in spot buying and selling. Some suppliers refused to budge on prices, and their willingness to sell decreased, resulting in a relatively reduced amount of spot cargo available in the market. As of Monday, June 30, SMM copper inventories in major regions across China fell by 4,000 mt WoW to 126,100 mt, with only Shanghai inventories declining. Total inventories were 273,000 mt lower compared to the same period last year, with inventories in Shanghai, Guangdong, and Jiangsu all lower than their levels from the same period last year. On the price front, on July 9, countries may still face significant tariff increases, all of which will be decided by Trump. With trade policy facing uncertainty and the US dollar index at a low level, copper prices are expected to continue fluctuating at highs in the short term.